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General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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vnatale
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:26 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:11 pm
stuper1 wrote: Mathjak107,

I would like to see your model.
so the final version i decided on is a mix of active and etf .

the version as it stands now :


fidelity growth and income fund FDGRX - had this and blue chip growth for many many years.

fidelity blue chip growth FBGRX

vanguard total market index vti

vanguard veu all world index etf

vanguard vig dividend achievers etf

that is the equity side.

the bond side uses

vanguard admiral total bond fund (now only 10% of the portfolio)

fidelity floating rate high yield

vanguard bsv short term bond

vanguard vtip short term inflation proof bond etf

10% GLD GOLD ETF

10% CASH which represents 2 years of retirement withdrawals and some emergency money.

i toyed and toyed with so many different models until i came up with a mix of what i thought would cover the areas i wanted to cover with as little interest rate sensitivity as i could which is why i left reits out of the portfolio at this stage.

if inflation picks up i will swap total bond for a real return fund like fidelity strategic real return FSRRX . that carrys to much weight in areas geared for higher inflation to be used at this stage in my opinion.

the model works out to 50% in equities , 30% bonds , 10% gold 10% cash

And, how has the above evolved over nearly five years?

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:56 am
barrett wrote: mathjak, Are you unwinding your PP then? Just curious. You seemed to like it a couple of weeks ago.

Have enjoyed many of your posts on here.
yes ,  I did it today.

I made the change before I got to far behind.  I think for being as close to retirement as I am it was bad timing trying the pp.

I think pp may work and I could be wrong but I wasn't happy the way the current environment was interacting at this point in time .

to close for comfort . but I still enjoy  talking about the pp and I think I will always have a certain fondness for it.
mathak,

Your official confirming pronouncement that you were leaving the Permanent Portfolio...

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:45 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2015 3:42 am
MachineGhost wrote:
MediumTex wrote: i really abandoned the pp because after watching the bond action i did not want to place such a big bet on rates at this point with the bond  market yield s trend being up lately for months  and stock market gains just squeaking out .
Earlier I did some volatility checking of bonds from 1925 to date and various subsets, especially the bond bear from 1946 to 1981 which had low rates at the outset comparable to today.  Unfortunately, it seems that monthly data really masks the volatility one would experience on a daily basis as I was getting low volatility values not in any way comparable to 1977 to date (13.09%).  Isn't it normal to annualize by multiplying the square root of a value by the standard deviation of the returns representing the sampled temporal interval?  i.e. 12 for monthly data?

I don't know what the answer to the bond conundrum is, but I do know one thing.  The 1970's is no longer representative because it was high rates increasing higher (minimal duration).  We're at 1940's low rates that are going to increase higher (maximum duration).  If anyone is not scared, they should be.

yep , unless we have some extended calamity betting to heavy on rates now can be betting against the house , fighting the fed and forgetting the trend is your friend.

these sayings are there for a reason.

in the financial world not making the money you could is akin to losing that money .

getting overly defensive and leaving a pile of money on the table just for the fear of fear is in effect losing that much.

don't forget this important fact.

you only get one shot at building up everything you need  for retirement .  to leave money on the table because of fear of some calamity you come up with in your head that may never come to be and likely won't  may be very dangerous to your wealth .


the accumulation stage is the time to try to go for that pedal to the metal approach . after all even 2008 recovered in 5 years.  trying to overly protect against the outside chance everything goes to crap can cost you dearly and odds are Armageddon isn't around the corner.

just something to think about if you are still years from retirement ..

the most important thing financial  i learned , i learned from jason zweig . (his dad was marty zweig -famed wall street week elf ) .

jason's book your money your brain taught me our brains are geared to sabotage us .

the brain hates losing money and when it stresses over real money it even uses different sections for reasoning  then it does when you hypothetically think about doing something .

so your brain will get you to take the safest path and throw reason after reason at you as to why you should not take  that more volatile path.

when i was debating buying in to that real estate venture which would cost more money than i even owned and had no guarantees , i was up night after night as my brain pounded me with every reason as to why i should not do this.

but reading jasons book i knew i was not being handed a rational decision.

so i bit the bullet , did the deal , borrowed more money than i ever dreamed i would and it was the best thing i ever did. 

it was a calculated risk but a risk. the first lease buy out of a tenant fetched 7 figures for the apartment and our share paid off the loans.  we still had 7 more apartments left and a 10% stake in the commercial lease rights to the building .

those lease rights were sold last year for the whopper of an amount , 18 million dollars .  we got 16 million cash and they are paying us out the other 2 million over 4 years .  we held a 10% stake in this deal.

this deal which cost us all of 500k to buy in turned out to be amazing.

but if i listened to my brain i never would have done it.

here is the story of our lease right sale if anyone cares to read it.



.
http://therealdeal.com/blog/2014/01/29/ ... r-for-18m/
mathjak's real estate sale!

mathjak. Are you named in that article?

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:47 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:23 am
another point i want to bring up .

i told you i could talk about this stuff all day  ha ha ha  .

be careful when looking at all these charts and comparisons.

like comparing indexing to managed investing they are all strawman results that no one gets.

we all have different buy in points , sell points , rebalance points , we add money at different times and some even dollar cost average in.

few ever get anything resembling a posted year over year return.

even how you tax structure can wipe away any advantage's  lower expenses can have.

i am often reminded when i see charts and figures , of  grandma and her car buying days.

you have mr savvy investor  going in to buy a car.

he beats the  salesman into submission getting the lowest price he could . then he pounds the loan officer for the lowest possible financing.

3 years later he comes back and trades the car back in wholesale to the dealer.

on the other hand grandma walks in , pays top dollar for the car , gets a higher rate but sells the car privately for far more money.

grandma wins.


the fact is until all the pieces are figured in how something does in a chart has little bearing on what you did .


our models we used in the fidelity insight newsletter were not always funds that beat their index's . but by using funds through their sweet spots and trading them for better suited funds when the big picture changes  the funds working together beat their index's most of the time while individually they did not.


how you are doing is only unique to your own situation and not comparable to anyone else or anyone's charts and figures ..

you can have slightly more expensive funds , not the best allocations , or even have funds under perform a bit but a better retirement tax plan that allows you to draw a 6 figure income at near zero tax beats any boglehead any day.


i have a lot to say about retirement tax planning too but i will spare you all. 

remember too , i am not in the business , i am not a pro and these are just the opinions i have .

the funny thing is i have been quoted more times in the wall street journal than most people in the business and what the heck do i know.  lol
mathjak!!!!

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:43 pm

MediumTex wrote: i really abandoned the pp because after watching the bond action i did not want to place such a big bet on rates at this point with the bond  market yield s trend being up lately for months  and stock market gains just squeaking out .
MediumTex abandoned the PP at one point?

That's like... worse than the Beatles breaking up.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Tyler » Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:17 am

vnatale wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:10 pm
Tyler wrote:
Thu May 07, 2015 4:44 pm
My gold allocation is 100% IAU right now.  But I think holding some physical gold is a great idea and I plan to buy some in the future when rebalancing requires it. 
How are you currently doing your gold allocation?
Still happy with IAU. I still haven't gotten around to buying coins, although I think it's a fine idea.
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:37 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jul 02, 2015 4:22 pm
There should be a poll done:

"Why did you change to the PP if you were in some other strategy?"

For those that didn't come upon this early or at the beginning of their investing life, I would suspect the highest response would be along the lines

"Because I was too heavily invested in stocks and got burned or couldn't handle the drawdowns without selling."

See the chart below for what was my major vehicle until late 2008, DODGX.  I started investing at the 1st arrow.  I made it through the circled area without bailing.  I bailed 100% at the 2nd arrow and started my precious metals/miners foray (uh huh).

If I would have stuck through and bought even more at the lows, I would have been more than fine now.  But I didn't, and I am pretty sure I couldn't if it happened again.

Image
Cortopassi,



You aware of any subsequent poll being done here as you described above?

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:48 am

Vinny, I can't remember what happened yesterday!

But here's an interesting update to the DODGX chart. Not much to show for the past ~5 years.

Image
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:29 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2015 5:22 pm
glad you asked .  i am left handed and have diabetic neuropathy in my finger tips and toes . so i type with just one finger . the others are to sensitive to use for as much as i type. so all you see  i post is typed with just one finger.

the good news is i have the diabetes under control with no meds . just diet , weight lifting and running 4 miles every other day non stop .

at 62 this just aint fun  .    lol 
The above was in response to mathjak having been asked: "And also, what do you have against capital letters?"

Until now, I'd oftentimes wondered myself.

The above was his response. Now that I know why I give my public admiration for mathjak doing so much in spite of his affliction.

mathjak! Has this improved, worsened, stayed the same since you wrote the above? I do remember fairly recently you told us that it was NOT an impediment for you drumming?

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:32 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:58 am
Mark Leavy wrote: This is the most informative 24 hours I've ever read in a forum.  Post after post of good solid information and opinion.  I've never seen this anywhere else - at this level of intelligence and without belligerence.
i agree , i am amazed at the level of respect and civilness folks have when they disagree . you do not see this anywhere else .
If there was a graph of the Forum's effectiveness.....the above date seems to have been one of its high points?

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:55 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:09 am

by the way , i still cannot believe how civil everyone is to someone who hasn't drank the kool-aid    ha ha ha .  you do not see civil discussions like this any where else when someone bucks the forum ideology.

but that shows everyone really is interested in learning other views which brings up an interesting point


From all the old Topics I've read in the Forum I've learned that there were many who did not share mathjak's opinion above! But as I just wrote earlier, if there was a graph of the effectiveness of the graph, this time period (however defined) had to have been one of its high points.

Vinny
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Re: No where to hide

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:57 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:53 am
the point is the biggest obstacle to one's financial success is THEY NEVER SLEEP WITH THE ENEMY.

most folks like bogleheads as an example only hang out with , read  and support the views that coincide with their own.

they never get in to the enemy's head to learn what they know.

the wise person does exactly the opposite.  they infiltrate that enemy camp  and learn all there is about their side.

when you can walk away and argue for or against both sides just to play devils advocate only then do you know enough to make a decision about the subject.

i always hated insurance products  like annuities and whole life.

i had no idea how useful they can be in a retirement plan and how low cost immediate annuities were .

they can improve success rates by establishing a consistent base of income allowing less  equity's to have to be sold off and less power dry in low yielding bonds to achieve the same income goals.

that is another topic i learned by sleeping with the enemy and i can't even count how many times i switched sides over the years on everything from roth vs traditional ,  when to take social security , utilizing insurance products with your own investing  and long term care options as i learned more and more from the other side.

the fact i was profiled in money magazine quite a few years ago as well as fidelity investments magazine gave me the opportunity to see the views of the top pro's vs my own .  i went head to head against their team of pros as far as my long term plans  and it opened my eyes to the fact there is a whole other side to things that we do not  realize since each of us only knows what we know and can not  reason with the things we do not know in the mix.,

they totally reversed my thinking about self insuring for that long term care we discussed in another thread here.

as always i am happy to throw out my thoughts on any of those topics but i hate to go off topic  since after all this is the permanent portfolio forum and not the retirement forum .

but i will leave that to you all to decide what you want to throw out on the table for discussion.
I'd love to track down the two articles you reference above to read about you! Can you supply articles' names and dates?

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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