Absolutely brutal - 5/5

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I Shrugged
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:37 pm

I don’t think the PP appeals to the OCD as much as does the slicing and dicing approach. You know, is a bond barbell 0.1% better than just intermediate bonds, should I add 5% SCV, etc etc. I was (am) a control freak and I find the PP refreshingly does not feed that impulse.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by ahhrunforthehills » Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:06 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:37 pm
I don’t think the PP appeals to the OCD as much as does the slicing and dicing approach. You know, is a bond barbell 0.1% better than just intermediate bonds, should I add 5% SCV, etc etc. I was (am) a control freak and I find the PP refreshingly does not feed that impulse.
I think I probably did a bad job of articulating what I meant.

I think having a "system" allows people with OCD (who have come to realize they cannot predict the market) find comfort. Simply set it on "autopilot" and go be OCD about something else (whether that be a VP or something non investment related). For those that cannot fully trust the "autopilot" with blinders on, I think the HBPP "system" could probably use some tweaks, otherwise it will be abandoned completely in specific environments.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Hal » Wed Jun 22, 2022 4:21 pm

FWIW....

If I had my time again, I would go with a 50/50 Global Bond(Hedged)/Global Share portfolio with Gold added to minimise the volatility.
Ben Graham got through the Great Depression and recommended the 50/50 allocation. Only difference being for most of his life they were on a Gold Standard

Is there anything wrong with the PP... well not really.... It was a good starting point for when I knew absolutely nothing about investing.
But it is primarily designed for a US investor. The two fund PP works fine for me. Are there better approaches - sure. But on a cost/benefit basis this is acceptable

Anyway, the 6 minute to 8 minute mark is worth listening to.
https://wealthion.com/the-secret-to-sur ... -bank-cio/
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:12 pm

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:27 pm



In fairness, I do not post here often anymore and have only read a fraction of mathjak's posts. Maybe I am wrong and he kicks puppies and purposely farts in the produce section,


I can testify regarding the following I have learned about him from reading just about all he has written here:

1) He is a drummer of renown, having played with several musical groups that we would be familiar with.

2) He is an exceptional photographer. Do a search in this forum to see examples of this work.

3) He was not an exceptionally high earner during his working career but invested with risk in equities and has done quite well.

4) Is a student of Michael Kitces, who is on my Mt. Rushmore of people in personal finance. Maybe the George Washington.

5) Again took risk and invested in real estate and did extremely well.

He is an American example of applying oneself through hard work, taking risks, and coming out on top! Ignore him at your own personal loss of learning things you already did not know!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:17 pm

Desert wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:58 pm



2. I like value investing. I particularly like value investing with a quality screen, which is essentially what the Wellesley managers do. I think value will likely continue to over perform over the long term simply because the herd likes to chase overvalued shiny growth stocks, and they tend to pay too much for them and suffer the mean reversion.




Along those lines what grades would you give to Vanguard's two index offerings in this area?

Value Fund and Small Cap Value Fund. I've been in both since January 2003.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by joypog » Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:27 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:17 pm
Along those lines what grades would you give to Vanguard's two index offerings in this area?

Value Fund and Small Cap Value Fund. I've been in both since January 2003.
I haven't studied the matter too seriously, but I will say that the folks at Rational Reminder forum (heavy on factor investing) prefer the Avantis or Dimensional ETFs.

If you don't want active managed funds, then they would at least recommend that you go with Vanguard's S&P 600 small cap value ETF instead of their main small cap fund. I think the companies in that S&P index are smaller and more valuey.
1/n weirdo. US-TSM, US-SCV, Intl-SCV, LTT, STT, GLD (+ a little in MF)
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:05 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:12 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:27 pm


In fairness, I do not post here often anymore and have only read a fraction of mathjak's posts. Maybe I am wrong and he kicks puppies and purposely farts in the produce section,
I can testify regarding the following I have learned about him from reading just about all he has written here:

1) He is a drummer of renown, having played with several musical groups that we would be familiar with.

2) He is an exceptional photographer. Do a search in this forum to see examples of this work.

3) He was not an exceptionally high earner during his working career but invested with risk in equities and has done quite well.

4) Is a student of Michael Kitces, who is on my Mt. Rushmore of people in personal finance. Maybe the George Washington.

5) Again took risk and invested in real estate and did extremely well.

He is an American example of applying oneself through hard work, taking risks, and coming out on top! Ignore him at your own personal loss of learning things you already did not know!
Thanks Vinny …I should hire you as my publicist
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by dockinGA » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:30 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:12 pm
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:27 pm


In fairness, I do not post here often anymore and have only read a fraction of mathjak's posts. Maybe I am wrong and he kicks puppies and purposely farts in the produce section,
I can testify regarding the following I have learned about him from reading just about all he has written here:

1) He is a drummer of renown, having played with several musical groups that we would be familiar with.

2) He is an exceptional photographer. Do a search in this forum to see examples of this work.

3) He was not an exceptionally high earner during his working career but invested with risk in equities and has done quite well.

4) Is a student of Michael Kitces, who is on my Mt. Rushmore of people in personal finance. Maybe the George Washington.

5) Again took risk and invested in real estate and did extremely well.

He is an American example of applying oneself through hard work, taking risks, and coming out on top! Ignore him at your own personal loss of learning things you already did not know!
Perhaps Mathjak should focus on posting on drumming and photography forums. If all the investment expertise he brings to this forum is that he invested in stocks over the last 40 years or so and did well, and invested in real estate for the last however many years and did well, then I'm not sure he's bringing anything of value to this particular forum. There are literally millions of baby boomers who can say the exact same things.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:59 am

It’s not about value to us. It’s about getting a rise out of us. The language he uses makes it clear. I’m sure he loves the fact that we’re all talking about him now.

Based on the “points” he makes, I don’t think he has a good understanding of probability, tail risks, etc. He seems to believe you can look at portfolios after a period of time and see which one “won”. This is kind of like saying the best poker player in the hand was the one that won. Anyone who has played poker a bit knows that you can make terrible decisions from a risk perspective and still win the hand.

So again, you can have the last ten years of performance, ten times over for all I care. The one time in ten where my life isn’t wiped out due to tail risk is worth the reduced performance.

The PP is more than an investment portfolio, IMO. If you don’t see value in having 25% of your wealth outside the financial system, it’s probably not for you. That value is unlikely to show up on any traditional performance comparison.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am

There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses….

So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime .

So all our portfolios have dropped as off at the station we are currently at ….

All that matters is where they go from here.

And yes each year matters , as I said my pay check is dependent on where those portfolios drop me off.

In fact even a 4% swr is dependent on a certain real return as a minimum over the years needed to support it .

Studies show at least a 2% real return is needed over the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement


The last 10 years now shows the pp at an inflation adjusted cagr return of 2.23% and a nominal return of about 4.50%

That is in the danger zone so retirees basing a draw on portfolio returns need to be very aware of things going forward as every Single 4% failure to date has happened when real returns were under 2% over the first 15 years .
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:38 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am
There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses….

So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime .
Yup. Now we’re getting somewhere. I’m totally cool with this possibility. Like I said, I’m cool with forgoing some returns even if only one in ten lifetimes the insurance pays out - because I am not the average investor, this is my only life, I can't average myself out of a tail-risk scenario.

This is why your thesis that this was the bear market where the PP was supposed to shine and we should be disappointed (a troll's thesis), is flawed. So instead of (poorly) trying to sow discord, why don't you find a more enriching way to spend your time? Or you can continue to be the guy who hangs out on a forum for a portfolio he's not interested in.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:41 am

Data check...both MachineGhost and I, using daily data, reported in the past that the max dd of the PP is in the high 20s something percent. PV has it at 13% using monthly data.

I think the thing that surprised me most about the PP was how cyclical/countertrending its performance is. In other words, it is pretty much like any other portfolio only a little more chill and historically (and very roughly) it is countercyclical to a standard stocks and bonds portfolio.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Xan » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:51 am

Kbg wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:41 am
Data check...both MachineGhost and I, using daily data, reported in the past that the max dd of the PP is in the high 20s something percent. PV has it at 13% using monthly data.

I think the thing that surprised me most about the PP was how cyclical/countertrending its performance is. In other words, it is pretty much like any other portfolio only a little more chill and historically (and very roughly) it is countercyclical to a standard stocks and bonds portfolio.
My recollection was that MachineGhost for quite a while went on and on about a 25% max drawdown, and eventually somebody finally "cornered" him, pointing out that he had never shown any data supporting his 25% number. He eventually admitted that he didn't have the data and dropped it.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Kbg » Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:20 am

I need to remember where I got my data and see if I can run those numbers again...just by the math of it (using PV monthly returns) I'd be a bit surprised if daily data didn't at least show low 20%s.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by barrett » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:07 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:20 am
I need to remember where I got my data and see if I can run those numbers again...just by the math of it (using PV monthly returns) I'd be a bit surprised if daily data didn't at least show low 20%s.
The site I (and many others) used to use was peaktotrough.com but that stopped updating years ago. That data was super granular. I think the high 20%s figure was including inflation. I posted what I found years ago somewhere on this forum but don't want to look for it now. The draw down I am referring to was over about a two-year time from sometime in 1980 to sometime in 1982.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:04 pm

Jack Jones wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:38 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:49 am
There is another argument that says you can wait so long for that ship to come in the pier collapses….

So yep it is possible to never recover what was given up waiting for the big one where a particular portfolio shines and it may never happen in your lifetime .
Yup. Now we’re getting somewhere. I’m totally cool with this possibility. Like I said, I’m cool with forgoing some returns even if only one in ten lifetimes the insurance pays out - because I am not the average investor, this is my only life, I can't average myself out of a tail-risk scenario.

This is why your thesis that this was the bear market where the PP was supposed to shine and we should be disappointed (a troll's thesis), is flawed. So instead of (poorly) trying to sow discord, why don't you find a more enriching way to spend your time? Or you can continue to be the guy who hangs out on a forum for a portfolio he's not interested in.
That’s where you are wrong …harry brown had been a guru to me since I read his early books .

But the pp was not appropriate for me in my accumulation stage….by the time I reached retirement I had other models in place .


So I still take an interest in how it does , especially compared to my other choices
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:01 am

A better week , in fact the first up week in 12 weeks for equities

Pp minus 11.56%


Insight income model , minus 9.98


Wellesley minus 9.79
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Kbg » Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:09 pm

barrett wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:07 pm
Kbg wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:20 am
I need to remember where I got my data and see if I can run those numbers again...just by the math of it (using PV monthly returns) I'd be a bit surprised if daily data didn't at least show low 20%s.
The site I (and many others) used to use was peaktotrough.com but that stopped updating years ago. That data was super granular. I think the high 20%s figure was including inflation. I posted what I found years ago somewhere on this forum but don't want to look for it now. The draw down I am referring to was over about a two-year time from sometime in 1980 to sometime in 1982.
Ok, I'm not going to dive into this in the early 1980s was my recollection as well. I did a minor dive using London spot, ZB T-Bill futures and SPX...ball parking it I'm getting a potential of 25% MDD quite easily from the period 1980 to the summer of 1981. This period sucked for everything except for cash. All figures are nominal.

Using SHY, SPY, TLT and GLD which gives me daily history from 2006 to now and rebalancing weekly (just to track the DD closer/minimize smoothing) I have a 14.56% MDD.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by D1984 » Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:52 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Jun 25, 2022 4:09 pm
barrett wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:07 pm
Kbg wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:20 am
I need to remember where I got my data and see if I can run those numbers again...just by the math of it (using PV monthly returns) I'd be a bit surprised if daily data didn't at least show low 20%s.
The site I (and many others) used to use was peaktotrough.com but that stopped updating years ago. That data was super granular. I think the high 20%s figure was including inflation. I posted what I found years ago somewhere on this forum but don't want to look for it now. The draw down I am referring to was over about a two-year time from sometime in 1980 to sometime in 1982.
Ok, I'm not going to dive into this in the early 1980s was my recollection as well. I did a minor dive using London spot, ZB T-Bill futures and SPX...ball parking it I'm getting a potential of 25% MDD quite easily from the period 1980 to the summer of 1981. This period sucked for everything except for cash. All figures are nominal.

Using SHY, SPY, TLT and GLD which gives me daily history from 2006 to now and rebalancing weekly (just to track the DD closer/minimize smoothing) I have a 14.56% MDD.
From what little daily granularity backtesting I've done--using a 25/25/25/25 annually rebalanced combo of a daily index of 3-month T-Bill TR, LBMA PM closing spot gold, simulated S&P 500 TR daily (S&P500 PR but adding enough return each day so that the total monthly return in any month is equal to the S&P 500 TR return for that month...since the only S&P 500 TR index I have is monthly i.e. month end and not daily), and the Ryan ALM daily 20-30 yr Treasury Bond TR index--the max inflation-adjusted (not nominal) DD was indeed around 24 or 25% down from the top and happened in--IIRC--the near middle or so of June 1982; stocks would only reach their bottom in early August 1982 but bonds were already rebounding by then and that was enough to keep the portfolio from hitting another all-time low when the US market bottomed in said August. From what I remember--and I freely admit I might be wrong--there were indeed two or three points in 1981 and--IIRC--one in 1980 that were pretty close to the June 1982 bottom in real terms but none that quite exceeded it.

Speaking of bad drawdowns.....seeing as how another fairly safe portfolio choice--Wellesley--was mentioned earlier in this thread (by mathjak, I believe) check out its inflation-adjusted drawdown from its high in late November 1972 ( https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/tes ... ion1_1=100 and then set the returns chart of Portfolio Growth for "Inflation adjusted" ); it actually bottomed out in late 1974 in real terms but then kept bouncing up and down (again, in real terms....in nominal terms it beat its 1972 high by late 1975) from the December 1974 to mid-1982; it never quite touched its 1974 low ever again but not until late February 1983 would it again meet and exceed its 11-30-1972 real inflation-adjusted high.
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by Jack Jones » Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:51 am

ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:18 am
Jack Jones wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:00 am
ahhrunforthehills wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:33 am
There is a belief amongst some that the US Government helped to create the gold futures market to suppress prices. This is largely fueled by some documents pointing to the government doing research about the impact of physical gold if a paper gold market were established. For example, https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1974 ... 154_b.html
ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE
VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MAR-
KET. IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH
THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING AND MOST LIKELY
NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS.
Fascinating. I wonder if the same playbook is going on with Bitcoin. The feds were happy to approve Bitcoin futures ETFs, but not spot ETFs.
Maybe. I always thought it was interesting that since a lot of crypto is involved in illegal transactions, the government seizes billions and billions worth of it. More levers at their disposal.
Apparently they just denied another spot ETF. I thought this comment on Hacker News was interesting:
And all of this is a false dilemma.
The SEC being in a position to use its own arbitrary discretion to gatekeep an investment’s existence and availability to retail investors is pure happenstance that only exists in a subset of ETFs due to the F part meaning Fund.
Otherwise the SEC specifically does not judge the merit of investments, it advocates for 100 pages of disclaimers and says “we did it guys! We protected investors!” For the issuer, most SEC compliance is simply posting a notice to the SEC, not asking them for permission.
It is an extremely broad interpretation of a multitude of investment acts that has the SEC looking deep into the spot markets of an entirely different asset class to make any arguments at all. And its also their choice to do that, its their choice to act out of character specifically for crypto (they stonewalled gold etfs for a long time too though).
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:19 am

For the week , ytd

Pp down 12.0%

Fidelity insight income model down 10.1%


Wellesly down 9.31%
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by vnatale » Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:18 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:19 am

For the week , ytd

Pp down 12.0%

Fidelity insight income model down 10.1%


Wellesly down 9.31%


Were you not going to provide the results for both the week and year-to-date? I'm only seeing one amount for each, which I am assuming is year-to-date.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:19 am

Yes , just year to date
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:53 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:18 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:19 am
For the week , ytd

Pp down 12.0%

Fidelity insight income model down 10.1%


Wellesly down 9.31%
Were you not going to provide the results for both the week and year-to-date? I'm only seeing one amount for each, which I am assuming is year-to-date.
Thought I would add the butterfly in

Golden butterfly down 11.8% ytd , 10 year 6.19%

Pp 10 year 4.46%

Insight income model 10 year 4.10%

Wellesly 10 year 6.11%

Ray dalio all weather 10 yr 5.39%

Fidelity insight growth and income. 10 yr 9.20%



All data is portfolio labs
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Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Post by D1984 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:59 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:53 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:18 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 3:19 am
For the week , ytd

Pp down 12.0%

Fidelity insight income model down 10.1%


Wellesly down 9.31%
Were you not going to provide the results for both the week and year-to-date? I'm only seeing one amount for each, which I am assuming is year-to-date.
Thought I would add the butterfly in

Golden butterfly down 11.8% ytd , 10 year 6.19%

Pp 10 year 4.46%

Insight income model 10 year 4.10%

Wellesly 10 year 6.11%

Ray dalio all weather 10 yr 5.39%

Fidelity insight growth and income. 10 yr 9.20%



All data is portfolio labs
All of these returns are nominal (i.e. not inflation adjusted), right?

Also, didn't Fidelity Insight Growth & Income lose almost 33.5% in 2008? I get that it has over the past ten years done better than any of the "safer" balanced type portfolios you listed but --given its 2008 performance--is it really a fair and accurate comparison to pit it against portfolios that lost a lot less during that time (or for that matter, gained a lot less from 2012 to mid-2022) because they had a lot less in equities?
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