Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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ppnewbie
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Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:12 pm

One very big hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly is that it helps people unfamiliar with the concepts of the HBPP portfolio ease into it. As a person who has invested in stocks my entire adult life without even thinking of gold, bonds, and cash, the GB helped me make the leap.

Now I can decide if I want to tweak closer to a classic HBPP or stay GB. Either way I have a much higher margin of comfort and countervailing forces keeping my 401k steady. If it wasn't for the guidance and scaffolding of Tyler's writings, I don't know if I would have created this portfolio on my own. I would have thought more binary. HBPP or something else (Bogleheadish).
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ochotona
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Re: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:41 pm

For sure, it's never binary. There's an infinite variety of portfolios.
Kevin K.
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Re: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

Post by Kevin K. » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:31 pm

I've found it really helpful to go back and skim the original thread here on the Golden Butterfly in some detail:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7700

Desert's contributions there and his thinking about portfolios in general as well as (of course) Tyler's numerous contributions are really illuminating. The GB is a brilliant "tweak" or iteration of the PP but I think that for most folks coming from the Bogleheads/plain vanilla portfolio camp 20% gold is probably just as much of a deal-breaker as 25%. That's why, in my opinion anyway, the "Commentary" part of the Portfolio Charts site is at least as valuable as the portfolio section. Sharing this post of Tyler's with friends has been really well-received:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2015/09/22/ ... butterfly/

Of course people ought to read Harry Browne or the wonderful Rowland/Lawson book on the PP, but Tyler does a masterful job of distilling things to their essence so that stock-and-bond-only folks can begin to see the logic of allocations that are based on responding to macroeconomic conditions rather than just backtesting.
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Tyler
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Re: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

Post by Tyler » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:30 pm

I'm happy to hear you guys find value in the articles. :)

Leading people to understand a new concept to the point where they embrace it over their own preconceptions is actually really hard. So I consider it a high compliment!
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Smith1776
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Re: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:07 pm

The Golden Butterfly is basically a mirror image of PRPFX.

Think of PRPFX as the PP but with a tilt towards inflation. Similarly, think of The Golden Butterfly as the PP but with a tilt towards prosperity.
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Dieter
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Re: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

Post by Dieter » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:12 pm

GB is a 60/40 tilt to " You may live in interesting times".

"Just" taking 20% from sticks to gold...

And trading total bond for Treasuries.
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