Calling Harry Browne nerds re: Devaluation

[glennds]

Are there any Harry Browne devotees out there hardcore enough to have been reading his old books? Well I'm re-reading "How you can Profit from the coming devaluation" written in 1970. This is the book that made HB quite famous since most of his predictions came true, especially with regard to inflation. If it were 1970 and you followed the strategy he outlines in the book, you would have ended the decade in good shape, certainly in relative and real terms.

So, I'm re-reading this at the moment, and is it just me, or is it totally eerie how relevant what he wrote in 1970 sounds in light of the recent Fed action?

Admittedly, I thought mostly the same in 2008-2009 and waited for runaway inflation or a second dip, neither of which came. But this time the amount of money creation is four times higher and against an economy that could be more damaged.

So, has anyone else read this HB book? If so, what relevance do you see to our conditions today?

BTW, the program he outlines in the book is quite different from the Permanent Portfolio. He calls out for six components of the plan:
1. Cash
2. Swiss Francs
3. Silver Coins (mainly to use as a money substitute in a crisis)
4. Silver Bullion
5. Gold stocks
6. A personal retreat, to which you could move for personal protection if a financial crisis took society into chaos and rioting.

Remember at this time it was not legal in the US to own gold, and would not be until 1974. Also, his program may have been tailored to suit the inflationary conditions he foresaw at that moment in time. I presume when he later wrote Fail Safe Investing and outlined the Permanent Portfolio his views modified along with changes in the legal and economic environment.

[Xan]

IIRC, what changed is that Harry realized he had basically been lucky that his predictions ended up happening. That's when he turned from trying to predict what was coming and profit from it to setting up a portfolio that did NOT rely on consistently and accurately predicting the future: a "permanent" portfolio.

[I Shrugged]

I have read it. The devaluation happened when gold became legal to own and the price was allowed to float. Since we can own gold, I think the PP is the right path now.

[dualstow]

IIRC, what changed is that Harry realized he had basically been lucky that his predictions ended up happening

Or at least he was very lucky, he said, with regard to the timing. It happened so close to his prediction, and even he hadn’t counted on that.

That's when he turned from trying to predict what was coming and profit from it to setting up a portfolio that did NOT rely on consistently and accurately predicting the future: a "permanent" portfolio.

Yup