5% guaranteed vs PP Results

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Where would you put your savings over the next 20 years

Guaranteed 5% Nominal Return
0
No votes
Traditional 4x PP
17
100%
 
Total votes: 17
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jalanlong
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5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by jalanlong » Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:59 am

I am interested in the board's view on this hypothetical.

If you had to choose between the following 2 options for the next 20 years starting today, which would you choose?

1) A Guaranteed 5% annual return
2) Whatever the traditional 4x PP gives you

Where would you put your savings? Assume you have no other savings so you need this savings to be all that it can be in 20 years.
Last edited by jalanlong on Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jalanlong
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by jalanlong » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:40 am

MangoMan wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:22 am
jalanlong wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:59 am
I am interested in the board's view on this hypothetical.

If you had to choose between the following 2 options for the next 20 years starting today, which would you choose?

1) A Guaranteed 5% annual return
2) Whatever the traditional 4x PP gives you

Where would you put your savings? Assume you have no other savings so you need this savings to be all that it can be in 20 years.
Is that 5% nominal or real?
5% nominal.
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Tyler
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by Tyler » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:04 pm

The Permanent Portfolio has consistently produced (with no sign of fading) a real return of 4-5% a year over every 20-year period since 1970. I'll take that over the 5% nominal.

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jalanlong
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by jalanlong » Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:08 pm

I was wondering with ST rates at 0 and LT rates at 1.54 if people still had confidence of that performance over the next 20 years.
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 4:20 am

jalanlong wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:08 pm
I was wondering with ST rates at 0 and LT rates at 1.54 if people still had confidence of that performance over the next 20 years.
simple answer is no one knows ....40 years of falling rates has created a very different environment never seen before in the modern investing world .
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by jhogue » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:43 am

jalanlong wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:08 pm
I was wondering with ST rates at 0 and LT rates at 1.54 if people still had confidence of that performance over the next 20 years.
No question, the Fed has intended for its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) to lower the entire Treasury yield curve, end-to-end, since 2008.

Despite 12 years of non-stop ZIRP, the shape of the yield curve is still "normalized," with a uniformly upward sloping from 3 month T-bills (0.09%) to 30 year T-bonds (1.70%). I should add here that periods of negative real returns on Treasury securities are not unusual at all, if that is what concerns you. The effect of negative real returns on Treasurys seems largely to have been an unprecedented boom in the stock market.
Last edited by jhogue on Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by jalanlong » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:44 am

jhogue wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:43 am
jalanlong wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:08 pm
I was wondering with ST rates at 0 and LT rates at 1.54 if people still had confidence of that performance over the next 20 years.
No question, the Fed has intended for its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) to lower the entire Treasury yield curve, end-to-end, since 2008.

Despite 12 years of non-stop ZIRP, the shape of the yield curve is still uniformly upward sloping from 3 month T-bills (0.09%) to 30 year T-bonds (1.70%). I should add here that periods of negative real returns are not unusual at all.
That was sort of the reason for my poll. What is the confidence level that over the next 20 years the PP will beat a 5% return?
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by Fredmong » Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:22 am

jalanlong wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:44 am
jhogue wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:43 am
jalanlong wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:08 pm
I was wondering with ST rates at 0 and LT rates at 1.54 if people still had confidence of that performance over the next 20 years.
No question, the Fed has intended for its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) to lower the entire Treasury yield curve, end-to-end, since 2008.

Despite 12 years of non-stop ZIRP, the shape of the yield curve is still uniformly upward sloping from 3 month T-bills (0.09%) to 30 year T-bonds (1.70%). I should add here that periods of negative real returns are not unusual at all.
That was sort of the reason for my poll. What is the confidence level that over the next 20 years the PP will beat a 5% return?
Whenever I doubt the bonds, I look at Japan 30Y bonds : https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/30-year-bond-yield. Like looking into the future.
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:31 pm

We are not Japan
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by Fredmong » Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:46 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:31 pm
We are not Japan
Really ? We aren't ? Of course we aren't exactly like Japan...

My point was yield can still go lower on the 30Y and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed buy equities in the next crisis like BOJ did.
I am not saying the conditions are the same here as they are there, but the central bank actions are very similar.

You disagree with that ? Now care to elaborate your point ?
Thanks
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by sophie » Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:20 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:44 am
jhogue wrote:
Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:43 am
jalanlong wrote:
Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:08 pm
I was wondering with ST rates at 0 and LT rates at 1.54 if people still had confidence of that performance over the next 20 years.
No question, the Fed has intended for its Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) to lower the entire Treasury yield curve, end-to-end, since 2008.

Despite 12 years of non-stop ZIRP, the shape of the yield curve is still uniformly upward sloping from 3 month T-bills (0.09%) to 30 year T-bonds (1.70%). I should add here that periods of negative real returns are not unusual at all.
That was sort of the reason for my poll. What is the confidence level that over the next 20 years the PP will beat a 5% return?
The PP being a real-return portfolio, its performance will depend on inflation. About 4-6% ahead of inflation, if you believe past performance.

I would ask this question a different way. What is YOUR confidence level that over the next 20 years, inflation will remain at or below 1%?

My answer to that question: NONE WHATSOEVER. I am sticking with the PP.
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by Kevin K. » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:28 pm

We're kind of back to the reasons why the GB makes sense as one possible evolutionary iteration of the PP. The PP allocates equal percentages of assets to address different macroeconomic challenges that aren't equally likely to happen and don't cost the same to insure against.

LTT's are for deflation, the least likely situation and the most costly to insure against. They've looked great anyway because of a decades-long bond market tailwind but with negative real yields they're only going to keep looking good if we really do see Japan-like stagflation. William Bernstein and others have already done a good job of explaining why this is unlikely.

As Tyler has shown cash is surprisingly helpful in combating inflation but a paltry 25% in all-U.S. TSM equities isn't likely to help much. Gold is for SHTF insurance and (as, again, Tyler has brilliantly explained) while it's not an inflation hedge does do very well during times of low interest rates and money printing.

I think if you'd asked about the PP vs. a 5% real return you might have gotten a few folks to make a different choice.
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by Xan » Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:44 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:28 pm
I think if you'd asked about the PP vs. a 5% real return you might have gotten a few folks to make a different choice.
Definitely. That one I'd take the guarantee for sure. But a more interesting question would be a guaranteed, say, 3% return. Tough one.
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sophie
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by sophie » Sat Nov 14, 2020 4:33 pm

I'd take a 5% guaranteed real return any day, because the PP does just about that well but with some ups and downs.

However I don't think such an investment exists. If anyone knows of one please post it here!!
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Re: 5% guaranteed vs PP Results

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:54 am

It won't let me select poll but I will take the 5% nominal.
I would probably even take 3% nominal.

20 year treasury is at 1.4%. How wrong can the buyers of 20 year treasuries be?

Scary to think growth will be so low though.

Edit: I just checked. 20 year treasury was almost 7% 20 years ago. Put that in context of previous 20 years.
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