Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Stocks
14
31%
Long term bonds
3
7%
Gold
15
33%
Cash
2
4%
None, they'll all lose
0
No votes
I truly can't predict
11
24%
 
Total votes: 45
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4420
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by sophie » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:59 am

We run this poll every year. Gratifyingly, the winner has proven to be dead wrong in almost all cases. Let's see what we got for this year - put in your vote!

I'm guessing stocks because:

No-brainer if President Trump stays in office. This isn't terribly likely though.

If Biden is inaugurated, Wall Street will love him to pieces because he loves them back in a big way. The damage will show up long-term, i.e. not until after 2021. A Republican-controlled Senate will help contain the damage - but they can't do anything about executive orders.
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1623
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by barrett » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:45 am

I voted for gold so that pretty much guarantees that it will tank. Such are my superpowers.

Smith will be disappointed that "STONCKS" are not an official choice. O0
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11781
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:39 pm

barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:45 am
Smith will be disappointed that "STONCKS" are not an official choice. O0
😂
traveling...
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2540
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:52 pm

How did our 2020 predictions work out?
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2274
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:47 pm

I voted for long-term bonds. It's almost annoying how well they continue to perform. ::)
"Talk is cheap. Show me the code." - Linus Torvalds
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2969
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:07 pm

Voted can't predict, therefore the reason for the pp in the first place!
User avatar
pors
Associate Member
Associate Member
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:06 am

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by pors » Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:23 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:07 pm
Voted can't predict, therefore the reason for the pp in the first place!
Yes, same here ;D
Fredmong
Associate Member
Associate Member
Posts: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:40 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by Fredmong » Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:29 pm

I voted for gold because it could be perceived as undervalued compared to the other assets but hopefully we see another volatile year and stocks or bonds end up on top.
DoomVoyager
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:58 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by DoomVoyager » Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:08 pm

Hello, new here. Long time lurker.

I do not expect cash to ever do well, if deflation was going to occur then IMO it would've happened over covid lockdowns, but by the data I could find we experienced negligible actual deflation. Unsurprisingly my personal modification of PP is to severely decrease cash.

Stocks I expect to do moderately well unless our enlightened overlords tighten the tax/regulatory noose too quickly, or worse, create too unstable of a regulatory environment. Times like these make me glad that 50% of the s&p500's earnings come from abroad.

Bonds, I expect to do poorly because interest rates are in the toilet and there's pretty much nowhere to go except up. Bond prices deflating is of course necessary for drawdown protection so long term this is a good thing. As with posters above I've been wrong on bonds enough that this is a 55/45 certainty at best.

Gold, I expect to do spectacularly due to combination of monetary policy and political risk. Buffet once said gold only made sense to own if you were betting that next year, people would be more scared than they are right now. Do I think that'll come to pass? I'd not only bet my ass on it, but 1/3 of my net worth.

With the usual uncertainty disclaimer, GOLD GOLD GOLD for 2021.
User avatar
pors
Associate Member
Associate Member
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:06 am

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by pors » Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am

I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 11781
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by dualstow » Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:02 am

pors wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am
I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?
Probably in 2008-9, yeah.
traveling...
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4420
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by sophie » Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:34 am

I don't remember which years, but bonds won multiple times in the past several.

Cash has won several years in the PP's history. But yes, mostly it's been stocks. Gold depending on economic scenario.
DoomVoyager
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:58 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by DoomVoyager » Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:41 am

pors wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am
I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?
This forum would probably be a wealth of data. I'll search the forums and see if I can make a spreadsheet or a little chart or something
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1350
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:55 pm

DoomVoyager wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:08 pm
Hello, new here. Long time lurker.

::)
User avatar
pors
Associate Member
Associate Member
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:06 am

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by pors » Wed Jan 20, 2021 3:37 am

DoomVoyager wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:41 am
pors wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am
I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?
This forum would probably be a wealth of data. I'll search the forums and see if I can make a spreadsheet or a little chart or something
Cool!
User avatar
tomfoolery
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 908
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:47 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by tomfoolery » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:09 pm

I selected "cash" as the winner of 2021 because I expect liquidity issues when, at a certain point, the reality hits we (United States) can't keep printing more more money or at least has to slow down.
💉
User avatar
tomfoolery
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 908
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:47 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by tomfoolery » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm

GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.
💉
User avatar
doodle
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4590
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:17 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by doodle » Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:20 pm

I'm going with cash
User avatar
blue_ruin17
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 137
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:16 pm
Location: New Brunswick, Canada

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by blue_ruin17 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm
GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.
100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)
"Like a confident pack, a confident portfolio provides both strength in fact, as well as — and this is the part I bet you’re missing right now and the focus of this note — strength in spirit."
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2274
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:04 pm

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm
tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm
GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.
100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)
Post here more, please.
"Talk is cheap. Show me the code." - Linus Torvalds
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5934
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by vnatale » Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:06 pm

blue_ruin17 wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm

GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.


100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 318
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:55 am

Inflation - Gold and stocks.
finster869
Junior Member
Junior Member
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:33 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by finster869 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:38 pm

barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:45 am
I voted for gold so that pretty much guarantees that it will tank. Such are my superpowers.
Your superpowers continue to amaze. . .Gold is now down close to 11% for the year.
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 708
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by glennds » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:29 pm

Yes, at the rate things are going, I wonder if one of the options should have been no winners.

Or alternatively, choose which asset will lose the least. Where's Budd?

Seriously though, today markets tanked in reaction to Fed Chairman Powell signaling a pick up in inflation. If this is in fact the fear, then we should hope gold moves accordingly.
User avatar
doodle
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4590
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:17 pm

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:27 pm

What if interest slowly grind upwards simultaneously squeezing the life out of stocks and gold? That would be a very nasty surprise indeed. Luckily I like ramen noodles and dumpster diving. I don't have far to fall!
Post Reply