Gyroscopic Investing

We run this poll every year. Gratifyingly, the winner has proven to be dead wrong in almost all cases. Let's see what we got for this year - put in your vote!

I'm guessing stocks because:

No-brainer if President Trump stays in office. This isn't terribly likely though.

If Biden is inaugurated, Wall Street will love him to pieces because he loves them back in a big way. The damage will show up long-term, i.e. not until after 2021. A Republican-controlled Senate will help contain the damage - but they can't do anything about executive orders.

I voted for gold so that pretty much guarantees that it will tank. Such are my superpowers.

Smith will be disappointed that "STONCKS" are not an official choice.

barrett wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:45 am Smith will be disappointed that "STONCKS" are not an official choice.

How did our 2020 predictions work out?

I voted for long-term bonds. It's almost annoying how well they continue to perform.

Voted can't predict, therefore the reason for the pp in the first place!

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:07 pm Voted can't predict, therefore the reason for the pp in the first place!

Yes, same here

I voted for gold because it could be perceived as undervalued compared to the other assets but hopefully we see another volatile year and stocks or bonds end up on top.

Hello, new here. Long time lurker.

I do not expect cash to ever do well, if deflation was going to occur then IMO it would've happened over covid lockdowns, but by the data I could find we experienced negligible actual deflation. Unsurprisingly my personal modification of PP is to severely decrease cash.

Stocks I expect to do moderately well unless our enlightened overlords tighten the tax/regulatory noose too quickly, or worse, create too unstable of a regulatory environment. Times like these make me glad that 50% of the s&p500's earnings come from abroad.

Bonds, I expect to do poorly because interest rates are in the toilet and there's pretty much nowhere to go except up. Bond prices deflating is of course necessary for drawdown protection so long term this is a good thing. As with posters above I've been wrong on bonds enough that this is a 55/45 certainty at best.

Gold, I expect to do spectacularly due to combination of monetary policy and political risk. Buffet once said gold only made sense to own if you were betting that next year, people would be more scared than they are right now. Do I think that'll come to pass? I'd not only bet my ass on it, but 1/3 of my net worth.

With the usual uncertainty disclaimer, GOLD GOLD GOLD for 2021.

I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?

pors wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?

Probably in 2008-9, yeah.

I don't remember which years, but bonds won multiple times in the past several.

Cash has won several years in the PP's history. But yes, mostly it's been stocks. Gold depending on economic scenario.

pors wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?

This forum would probably be a wealth of data. I'll search the forums and see if I can make a spreadsheet or a little chart or something

DoomVoyager wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:08 pm Hello, new here. Long time lurker.

DoomVoyager wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:41 am

pors wrote: ↑Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:27 am I say stocks. It would be interesting to see the history of this poll and the actual winners for previous years. Did anything else than stocks ever win?

This forum would probably be a wealth of data. I'll search the forums and see if I can make a spreadsheet or a little chart or something

Cool!

I'm going with cash

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.

100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)

blue_ruin17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.

100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)

Post here more, please.

blue_ruin17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm
GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.

100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Inflation - Gold and stocks.

barrett wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:45 am I voted for gold so that pretty much guarantees that it will tank. Such are my superpowers.

Your superpowers continue to amaze. . .Gold is now down close to 11% for the year.

Yes, at the rate things are going, I wonder if one of the options should have been no winners.

Or alternatively, choose which asset will lose the least. Where's Budd?

Seriously though, today markets tanked in reaction to Fed Chairman Powell signaling a pick up in inflation. If this is in fact the fear, then we should hope gold moves accordingly.

What if interest slowly grind upwards simultaneously squeezing the life out of stocks and gold? That would be a very nasty surprise indeed. Luckily I like ramen noodles and dumpster diving. I don't have far to fall!

Bananas for Australian best asset!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_republic

blue_ruin17 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:24 pm

tomfoolery wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:08 pm GameStop will be the winning asset for 2021.

100% GameStop is incredibly risky...you gotta diversify:

25% GameStop
25% AMC
25% BlackBerry
25% Dogecoin (black swan hedge)

Can someone run analysis on this portfolio?
Dogecoin up 6200% in 1 year.