Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Wed Jan 13, 2021 11:04 am

Jeffrey Gundlach promotes his PP @ 18:30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd6zu-xylqo
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm

Interesting that he mentioned real estate and Bitcoin as alternatives to gold. 8)
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
Kevin K.
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 516
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 2:37 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by Kevin K. » Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm

Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:58 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.
Banks loans? He said 25% cash and 25% long term bonds. The odd parts were 25% bitcoin/gold and 25% emerging markets/asia stocks
modeljc
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 271
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:52 am

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by modeljc » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:17 pm

Kevin K. wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.
You will not find any prominent wall street guys smoking the PP almost!! They all have something to sell you. I'm OK with Jeffrey. He will sell his emerging market stocks when the U.S. stocks take a hit. And guess what? He may do better than us. maybe. We are not main stream with only a 1000 of us but this guy gets it's. Nice to see a little acceptance.
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by Xan » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:38 pm

perfect_simulation wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:58 pm
Kevin K. wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:04 pm
Yeah and emerging market stocks instead of TSM and bank loans instead of bonds. Nothing remotely PP-esque about this guy IMHO.
Banks loans? He said 25% cash and 25% long term bonds. The odd parts were 25% bitcoin/gold and 25% emerging markets/asia stocks
Not just long term bonds, but long term Treasuries. I'd say this is definitely PP-esque.
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by ppnewbie » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:38 pm

Anyone have good ideas for emerging market etf’s?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:10 am

I like eem

I would only buy if markets took a decent hit and rolled back ..to big of a run up recently in emerging markets for my taste
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:10 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Interesting that he mentioned real estate and Bitcoin as alternatives to gold. 8)
Real estate as an alternative to gold in the PP is absolutely insane. Even more so than bitcoins. Gold in the PP is a hedge against your nations currency having issues. If your nations currency is having issues that means the government is having issues. In an environment such as this, assets like gold, bitcoin, and anything that can move outside the country (or is already there) will start to do so. A struggling government is going to grasp at anything they can that remains, including and especially real estate, as it is so easy to tax and control.

I understand that real estate has some inflation hedge qualities, but that only covers some of the bases gold covers in the PP.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:31 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:10 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Interesting that he mentioned real estate and Bitcoin as alternatives to gold. 8)
Real estate as an alternative to gold in the PP is absolutely insane. Even more so than bitcoins. Gold in the PP is a hedge against your nations currency having issues. If your nations currency is having issues that means the government is having issues. In an environment such as this, assets like gold, bitcoin, and anything that can move outside the country (or is already there) will start to do so. A struggling government is going to grasp at anything they can that remains, including and especially real estate, as it is so easy to tax and control.

I understand that real estate has some inflation hedge qualities, but that only covers some of the bases gold covers in the PP.
O0 O0 O0
ppnewbie wrote:
Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:38 pm
Anyone have good ideas for emerging market etf’s?
For fellow Canadians:

- Vanguard's VEE for market cap weighting at low cost.
- Franklin Templeton's FLEM for factor exposure.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:51 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:10 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:07 pm
Interesting that he mentioned real estate and Bitcoin as alternatives to gold. 8)
Real estate as an alternative to gold in the PP is absolutely insane. Even more so than bitcoins. Gold in the PP is a hedge against your nations currency having issues. If your nations currency is having issues that means the government is having issues. In an environment such as this, assets like gold, bitcoin, and anything that can move outside the country (or is already there) will start to do so. A struggling government is going to grasp at anything they can that remains, including and especially real estate, as it is so easy to tax and control.

I understand that real estate has some inflation hedge qualities, but that only covers some of the bases gold covers in the PP.
Real estate is far to wishy washy for the pp.

Gold has provided positive real returns in 98% of the market slumps ..real estate usually slumps too.

Real estate is decent in only moderate inflation ...it sucked when mortgages were 18% ....real estate only did well after inflation came down .

Real estate is very very different than gold as well as lacks the properties gold has
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:55 am

I can't quite wrap my head around bitcoin being an asset like gold. Gold is a tangible commodity that also happens to be money. Bitcoin is a fiat currency in my mind - backed by nothing like the dollar and euro, etc. Might as well have some for diversification, buts its akin to cash IMHO!
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:42 am

perfect_simulation wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:55 am
I can't quite wrap my head around bitcoin being an asset like gold. Gold is a tangible commodity that also happens to be money. Bitcoin is a fiat currency in my mind - backed by nothing like the dollar and euro, etc. Might as well have some for diversification, buts its akin to cash IMHO!
Gold is "backed by" its commodity value that makes up about 2% of its total value? The remaining being monetary premium?

Additionally, this is a sort of "intrinsic value" argument. Nothing has intrinsic value because all value is subjective and up to an individuals preferences and environment.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:52 pm

5000 years of history says golds value as a store of value has withstood the test of time
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:24 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:52 pm
5000 years of history says golds value as a store of value has withstood the test of time
All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:19 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:24 pm
All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.
yeah, my core thought is where bitcoin fits into the PP - I think the cash quadrant if any and not the gold one O0
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by bitcoininthevp » Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:46 am

perfect_simulation wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:19 pm
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:24 pm
All value is still subjective though, which is the point Im trying to make to perfect_simulation.
yeah, my core thought is where bitcoin fits into the PP - I think the cash quadrant if any and not the gold one O0
It’s a good question. I think bitcoin is an asset that is in the process of becoming money/currency. Right now it is a bad cash but a good scarce asset. So I think bitcoin is more like gold for the next decade or so and then its volatility and appreciation will be much lower and it could be more like cash then.
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Tue Jan 19, 2021 1:59 pm

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:46 am
bitcoin is an asset
good points, but its called cryptocurrency not cryptoasset ;D
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:25 pm

Bitcoin fluctuates way too much for it to be considered a creature like cash. Trading or hodling, bitcoin in the VP sounds much better.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
Hal
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1349
Joined: Tue May 03, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by Hal » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:23 pm

Another interview with Gundlach on the PP. Starts at 46:45 min mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcEj4XkLn5w
Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
whatchamacallit
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 750
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:15 pm

Hal wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:23 pm
Another interview with Gundlach on the PP. Starts at 46:45 min mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcEj4XkLn5w
Good one. Pick back up at 1:08:30 if you don't make it that far.

Sounds like he was pretty much in PP except 50% cash instead of bonds.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:10 am

Every exception makes it not a pp
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:14 pm

He mentions the PP again 7/17/2021

https://youtu.be/VvoDkfRj-jY?t=230
whatchamacallit
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 750
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:18 pm

Still in it to win it
Permanent at 4:00

https://youtu.be/C08Vz9DTddk
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Post by perfect_simulation » Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:33 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Aug 23, 2021 8:18 pm
Still in it to win it
Permanent at 4:00

https://youtu.be/C08Vz9DTddk
He totally said 25% bitcoin/gold before. Now he says hes not long or short bitcoin.....interesting
Post Reply