PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by MediumTex » Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:01 pm

Vil wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:56 am
Cheers from Bulgaria (you have small, but affectionate group of followers here :D )
Something tells me it’s a very small group, but I am nonetheless humbled and honored.

Forgive me if you’re tired of being asked such an obvious question, but from your vantage point is there anything about the Ukraine situation that you think the rest of the world is not paying enough attention to?

Knowing what I know about both Russia and Ukraine, I am hesitant to believe much of anything that either one says.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:25 pm

Tex,

With the record RV sales, are full hookup campsites getting scarce? I doubt there are many new campgrounds being built.
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by MediumTex » Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:31 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:25 pm
Tex,

With the record RV sales, are full hookup campsites getting scarce? I doubt there are many new campgrounds being built.
You would be amazed. When you get a little way out from the cities, there is an RV park building boom. Lots of people moving from houses and apartments into RVs, traveling workers, vacationers, serial killers, etc. It’s a whole ecosystem that the media doesn’t cover.

We get people coming into our dealership all the time who are building RV parks and want to leave us information.

Out in west Texas, small RV parks for oilfield workers are EVERYWHERE.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:38 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:19 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:04 am

Very interesting update! I think that’s normal that your wife thinks you’re crazy, but it sounds like she accepts your choices. Good for you!


Life should not be a pie eating contest with a first prize of more pie. Declaring that you are done eating pie can be a revolutionary act.

You asked if Craig stops by. I think the last time was when you stopped by as well. Maybe one one other time.


I’m sure Craig is having all sorts of interesting adventures.


I was off a year ago in my guess as to the last time Craig made an appearance here (and he did mention you, MediumTex in it!):

Re: Knuckleheads PP thread resurrected
Post by craigr » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:34 pm

bedraggled wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:06 pm
I believe last year someone suggested if/when CraigR or Medium Tex post, people should jump in their cars and track them down. Time was of the essence then. Might have to take one of the idled cruise ships to find CraigR.

Maybe with the virus inconvenience, just let it go for now.
I am lurking from time to time so you never know when I'll appear. Hopefully Tex will come around some time. I've not heard from him in a while.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by MediumTex » Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:54 pm

I’m not hard to find if anyone ever wonders about me. Just send me a PM and it sends me an email, which makes me come here out of curiosity, and the next thing I know I’ve done dozens of posts.

I get about one PM every 1-2 years, so I’ve got some bandwidth to spare.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:07 pm

User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:11 am

MediumTex wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:01 pm
Forgive me if you’re tired of being asked such an obvious question, but from your vantage point is there anything about the Ukraine situation that you think the rest of the world is not paying enough attention to?
Well, I have shared some of my thoughts in the 'Putin Invades Ukraine' thread, but definitely its not something that has not been told or one cannot deduce. Apparently both parties have their own version of the truth disseminated via propaganda etc. and certainly both leaders (Putin and Zelenskyy) are telling lies of (sometimes) outrageous magnitude ... What I can certainly say its the people of both countries that fell prey to that situation - Russian people suffering any sort of 'non-physical' destructions and Ukrainian people - just the opposite - the physical side of things.
As there is a tendency of long running events to continue to to run even longer, I fear that war will not end up any time really soon. Bad thing is that it cannot get really any worse than that for Putin, which is yet another aspect that makes me think this may continue for a while, as he scratches his way out for U-shaped recovery of his image in his own country.
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Mar 23, 2022 4:48 am

MediumTex wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:31 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:25 pm
Tex,

With the record RV sales, are full hookup campsites getting scarce? I doubt there are many new campgrounds being built.
You would be amazed. When you get a little way out from the cities, there is an RV park building boom. Lots of people moving from houses and apartments into RVs, traveling workers, vacationers, serial killers, etc. It’s a whole ecosystem that the media doesn’t cover.

We get people coming into our dealership all the time who are building RV parks and want to leave us information.

Out in west Texas, small RV parks for oilfield workers are EVERYWHERE.
Oh yeah, I’ve seen those. How about new parks in vacation/ recreational locales?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 23, 2022 7:03 am

LOL @ serial killers and ecosystem in the same breath. O0 Nature’s balance?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4393
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by Xan » Wed Mar 23, 2022 8:51 am

Vil wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:11 am
and certainly both leaders (Putin and Zelenskyy) are telling lies of (sometimes) outrageous magnitude
Vil, do you have an example or two of a whopper by Zelenskyy?
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:06 pm

Vil wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:11 am
MediumTex wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:01 pm
Forgive me if you’re tired of being asked such an obvious question, but from your vantage point is there anything about the Ukraine situation that you think the rest of the world is not paying enough attention to?
Well, I have shared some of my thoughts in the 'Putin Invades Ukraine' thread, but definitely its not something that has not been told or one cannot deduce. Apparently both parties have their own version of the truth disseminated via propaganda etc. and certainly both leaders (Putin and Zelenskyy) are telling lies of (sometimes) outrageous magnitude ... What I can certainly say its the people of both countries that fell prey to that situation - Russian people suffering any sort of 'non-physical' destructions and Ukrainian people - just the opposite - the physical side of things.
As there is a tendency of long running events to continue to to run even longer, I fear that war will not end up any time really soon. Bad thing is that it cannot get really any worse than that for Putin, which is yet another aspect that makes me think this may continue for a while, as he scratches his way out for U-shaped recovery of his image in his own country.
Maybe a false attribution to Sun Tzu but still very relevant. 'Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.'
User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 24, 2022 2:54 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 8:51 am
Vil wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:11 am
and certainly both leaders (Putin and Zelenskyy) are telling lies of (sometimes) outrageous magnitude
Vil, do you have an example or two of a whopper by Zelenskyy?
Well for example.. two things that do not make quite a good impression - the number of casualties reported - they always differ from what UA officials state and what UN claims. I do not know whether UA officials are afraid of the numbers looking way too small for the rest of the world.. no idea.
Other thingie that really do not fit is how UA officials say Russian hits (even to non-civil targets) are result of wrong conclusions from Russian side. Think was a couple of days ago when a shopping mall was hit, there was actually a video showing UA folks hiding mobile rocket launcher truck on the ground level. So Russian army can suffer from bad logistics, poor management and severe demoralization but guess they are not idiots either.
However, as Otto von Bismarck rightly noticed long ago -
People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.
.. ::)
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 24, 2022 3:41 pm

Of course you're talking civilian casualties, right Vil? Because the estimates of Ukrainian soldiers killed is smaller than the figure put out by the U.S.

Here's a link back to the main thread: { Putin Invades Ukraine 2 }
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
perfect_simulation
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:04 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by perfect_simulation » Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:26 pm

Now is the BEST time to up a PP. Recent events show that anything can happen at any time. I sleep like a baby. ^-^
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by MediumTex » Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:43 pm

perfect_simulation wrote:
Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:26 pm
Now is the BEST time to up a PP. Recent events show that anything can happen at any time. I sleep like a baby. ^-^
That’s the spirit, comrade!
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
MediumTex
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 9096
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:47 pm
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by MediumTex » Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:58 pm

Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 24, 2022 2:54 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 8:51 am
Vil wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:11 am
and certainly both leaders (Putin and Zelenskyy) are telling lies of (sometimes) outrageous magnitude
Vil, do you have an example or two of a whopper by Zelenskyy?
Well for example.. two things that do not make quite a good impression - the number of casualties reported - they always differ from what UA officials state and what UN claims. I do not know whether UA officials are afraid of the numbers looking way too small for the rest of the world.. no idea.
Other thingie that really do not fit is how UA officials say Russian hits (even to non-civil targets) are result of wrong conclusions from Russian side. Think was a couple of days ago when a shopping mall was hit, there was actually a video showing UA folks hiding mobile rocket launcher truck on the ground level. So Russian army can suffer from bad logistics, poor management and severe demoralization but guess they are not idiots either.
However, as Otto von Bismarck rightly noticed long ago -
People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.
.. ::)
It seems like Ukraine is as good, if not better, at the propaganda game as Russia. I think Russia is in the wrong for invading its neighbor and should go home, but I’m sure that Ukraine is taking advantage of the fog of war to shape perceptions in its favor.

Put differently, one can be a victim of aggression, but that doesn’t mean that they are fully right and the aggressor fully wrong. They could both be wrong.

It’s hard to see how Putin recovers from this mess, though. I mean, who benefits from this disaster, except maybe Russian funeral homes and U.S. defense contractors?
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
A: “Not unless round is funny.”
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 24, 2022 7:33 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:58 pm

It seems like Ukraine is as good, if not better, at the propaganda game as Russia. I think Russia is in the wrong for invading its neighbor and should go home, but I’m sure that Ukraine is taking advantage of the fog of war to shape perceptions in its favor.
I’m sure they’re doing their best to propagandize. At a minimum, I think if even you with such a careful take are stating “I think Russia is in the wrong,” that it is safe to say that more people* around the world favor Ukraine than Russia in this war. It just seems natural to favor the invadee and the underdog unless and until new details come to light. Even before we get to willful perception shaping, which again I’m sure they’re trying.

*More countries, anyway. China and India have a lot of people.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
glennds
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1265
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 11:24 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by glennds » Thu Mar 24, 2022 7:37 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Thu Mar 24, 2022 6:58 pm


It’s hard to see how Putin recovers from this mess, though. I mean, who benefits from this disaster, except maybe Russian funeral homes and U.S. defense contractors?
Good question. The opposite question is a good one too, namely who loses the most from this disaster? Besides the obvious answers, it seems to me the oligarchs are somewhere on the list, and I wonder at what point one or more of them is in a position to do something about it. As protected as he might be, I would not be writing life insurance on Putin these days. The sanctions might prove to be an indirect form of assassination.
User avatar
jalanlong
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 829
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:30 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by jalanlong » Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:12 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:10 pm
Honestly, I think that I am a walking billboard for the real benefit of the PP, which is it allows you to live your life without thinking about or worrying about your investments. I have grown so indifferent to the markets that I will go months without looking at anything related to any of the PP asset classes. It’s not just that I don’t worry about my investments, I don’t even think about my investments. It’s sublime.

I’m sure that there have been countless stress fests over this asset class or that in recent years, but as best I can tell the PP has just plowed its way into the future, grinding forward like a clock in a thunderstorm.
Well to play devil's advocate, over the past 18 months the PP has lost quite a bit of purchasing power in inflation-adjusted returns. That you can live your life without thinking about it is more on you than the actual performance of the portfolio itself!
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:33 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:12 pm
MediumTex wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:10 pm
Honestly, I think that I am a walking billboard for the real benefit of the PP, which is it allows you to live your life without thinking about or worrying about your investments. I have grown so indifferent to the markets that I will go months without looking at anything related to any of the PP asset classes. It’s not just that I don’t worry about my investments, I don’t even think about my investments. It’s sublime.

I’m sure that there have been countless stress fests over this asset class or that in recent years, but as best I can tell the PP has just plowed its way into the future, grinding forward like a clock in a thunderstorm.
Well to play devil's advocate, over the past 18 months the PP has lost quite a bit of purchasing power in inflation-adjusted returns. That you can live your life without thinking about it is more on you than the actual performance of the portfolio itself!
Amen.
User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:43 am

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:12 pm
over the past 18 months the PP has lost quite a bit of purchasing power in inflation-adjusted returns
You mean Rowland & Lawson are promising things they cannot deliver ;D
Joke aside, does 60/40 deliver any better (haven't even checked to be honest) ? 18 month period - isn't it too short for what's supposedly a long term strategy ?

I mean I hate as many other people losing money, but then what - am I missing something (seeing my balance sheet definitely I am not missing what's said to be the end of the decades long bull run in bonds ) ? Leaving dividend irrelevancy theory and AT&T stock aside - apart from dividend stocks I can't imagine any other 'strategy' that fits into the memory-foam style of investing and providing the psychological benefit of being paid on regular basis no matter what ...

PS. Too many questions on above have to admit, share your thoughts on any .. (please, I value your opinion)
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:58 pm

Also it’s good to factor in the approximate 7 percent gain in gold (1800ish to 1920ish) and the approximate 50 percent rise in stocks as a counter balance to LTT’s and Cash.
dockinGA
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 245
Joined: Tue May 04, 2021 9:29 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by dockinGA » Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:13 am

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:12 pm
MediumTex wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:10 pm
Honestly, I think that I am a walking billboard for the real benefit of the PP, which is it allows you to live your life without thinking about or worrying about your investments. I have grown so indifferent to the markets that I will go months without looking at anything related to any of the PP asset classes. It’s not just that I don’t worry about my investments, I don’t even think about my investments. It’s sublime.

I’m sure that there have been countless stress fests over this asset class or that in recent years, but as best I can tell the PP has just plowed its way into the future, grinding forward like a clock in a thunderstorm.
Well to play devil's advocate, over the past 18 months the PP has lost quite a bit of purchasing power in inflation-adjusted returns. That you can live your life without thinking about it is more on you than the actual performance of the portfolio itself!
According to portfoliovisualizer, the straight PP is down about 3% vs inflation since October 2020. I would hardly call that a disaster.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:29 am

01/2020 - 2022 YTD

PP: 2.25%
BH 60/40: 8%
dockinGA
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 245
Joined: Tue May 04, 2021 9:29 am

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Post by dockinGA » Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:19 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:29 am
01/2020 - 2022 YTD

PP: 2.25%
BH 60/40: 8%
Where are you getting your numbers? According to portfoliovisualizer, i'm seeing that $10k invested in the PP Jan 2020 would be worth almost $11k today, inflation adjusted.
Post Reply