2012 Predictions Thread

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: 2012 Predictions Thread

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Dec 17, 2012 5:49 pm

Stocks down 2%
LTTs up 1%
STTs 0%
Gold down 2%

Crawling in the dark here, don't pay me no mind...
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Greg
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Re: 2012 Predictions Thread

Post by Greg » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:59 pm

VTI +10%
LTT hovering around 3% (so still paying the 3% coupon then)
STT at nothing
Gold at $1800/ounce.
Silver up to $40/ounce

Overall I see the portfolio up around 4.5% nominal with inflation around 1.5-2.0% so an inflation (real) yield of around 2.5-3%.

I also see LTT's holding because retirees will be slowly pulling money out of stocks to go into bonds. The rest of the world might not want our bonds but I see us holding down the rates pretty well.
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MachineGhost
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Re: 2012 Predictions Thread

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Dec 18, 2012 4:36 am

Three days until the end of the world!  That's my prediction.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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6 Iron
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Re: 2012 Predictions Thread

Post by 6 Iron » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:25 pm

On a quick glance, it does look like bugman is the winner. I, on the other hand, have been given the opportunity to again see how poorly my crystal ball works. Happy New Year to all!
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craigr
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Re: 2012 Predictions Thread

Post by craigr » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:15 pm

BugMan wrote:
VTI +15%
GLD +8%
TLT +7%
SHY +1%

PRPFX +7%

Boston Bruins will win the Stanley Cup (again)
I think BugMan is pretty close on this...(except for the Stanley Cup)....
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Re: 2012 Predictions Thread

Post by TripleB » Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:36 pm

TripleB wrote: Here's my prediction:

Gold down 25%
LTT down 15%
US Stocks up 12%
International Stocks up 20%

PP down 6%
Boy, was I wrong! Good thing I stuck with the PP (for at least a portion of my money... my VP beat the PP significantly this year)
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