2012 Predictions Thread

Post by **craigr** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:29 pm

Calling all market prognosticators, put down your specific and easily verified market predictions here.

Think stocks are going to go up? Put down your percentage.

Think gold is going to tank? Put down by how much.

Can bond yields go any lower? Put down where they will end the year.

Will the Euro finally blow up? Put down your timeframe.

Etc.

Unlike other market gurus, you're not allowed put down weasel words like "I see a market weakness that could lead to a decline followed by a possible rally later." You have to be specific!

We will revisit this thread next December to see where everyone came out. Any predictions or changes to predictions after January 15, 2012 are null and void.

Happy New Year!

AdamA · Post by **AdamA** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:06 pm

LTT's to 2.5%

Everything else stays flat.

TripleB · Post by **TripleB** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:05 pm

Here's my prediction:

Gold down 25%
LTT down 15%
US Stocks up 12%
International Stocks up 20%

PP down 6%

Gumby · Post by **Gumby** » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:40 pm

Tons of volatility and a 2012 crash (thanks Europe!).

Gold up 10%
LTT up 12%
US Stocks down 4%

US slips into a recession sometime during 2012 (although, the recession data for 2012 may not exist until 2013)

FarmerD · Post by **FarmerD** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 1:41 pm

The PP will endure a roller coaster ride with wildly gyrating parts but settles down by years's end:

LTT +10%
Stocks -10%
Gold +5%
cash +1
PP overall squeezes out a tiny1.5% gain.

Reub · Post by **Reub** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 2:49 pm

If I knew what was going to happen I wouldn't need the PP!

FarmerD · Post by **FarmerD** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:15 pm

Reub wrote: If I knew what was going to happen I wouldn't need the PP!

For confirmation of the PP, put down your best guesses. Next December 31, the vast majority of people making their forecasts will prove wrong, perhaps wildly so. Then people unsure of the PP will see it's probably best to leave prognostication to the Jim Cramers and Miss Cleos of the investment world.

This is actually a very healthy exercise.

Freedom_Found · Post by **Freedom_Found** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:26 pm

I have to agree pretty much 100% with Triple B. We've seen large inrushes into gold and TLT, based on emotional "alarm" of what people think is "supposed to" or going to happen in the market. When the "panic" subsides, that money will begin to be taken out, and the large gains which have been caused by those inrushes will cause the price to come down. Whether that happens this year will remain to be seen.

By any chance, was this same exercise done last year? Sure would be fun to check the results.

TripleB · Post by **TripleB** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:27 pm

About 2 years ago I predicted the fall of LTTs (mid 2009) and I was dead wrong. Sobering experience. One that led me to finally go full into the PP.

Post by **craigr** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:45 pm

You have to pony up hard numbers. Doesn't need to be on any Permanent Portfolio Asset. It can be silver, copper, emerging market bonds, bail bonds, etc. Don't be shy!*

Ok, the person with the most accurate guesses will get a special prize from me. Really. It's so special I don't even know what it is yet, but I promise you'll get something for playing if you do the best.

* - Yeah I'm not posting anything. I'm staying neutral in this.

ozzy · Post by **ozzy** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 5:54 pm

I predict silver will fall to under $19 per ounce.

6 Iron · Post by **6 Iron** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:39 pm

Gold even (but highly volatile over the year)
US stocks +15%
LT Bonds -20%
ST T Bills. -1%

Permanent Portfolio -2%

(as of 12/31/2012)

My prediction is that this year will be tough for our portfolio, but will still provide great opportunities in the long run for adding new money, if one can stay disciplined.

Jan Van · Post by **Jan Van** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:42 pm

Everything will go down by 100%.

2012... Mayan bla bla...

Should be easily verifiable. Or not at all.

Reub · Post by **Reub** » Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:06 pm

Gold up 15%
TLT up 15%
VTI down 10%
SHY up 1%

"So it shall be written..."

D · Post by D » Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:54 pm

PP up 7-8%

PP67 · Post by **PP67** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 8:42 am

This is from 2010:

http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... ic.php?t=8

goldfinger · Post by **goldfinger** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:44 pm

Stock -30%
Gold -20%
Bond +50%

Cash is King

gap · Post by **gap** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 7:58 pm

Gold +15%
LT Bond + 5%
Stocks +25%
Cash 2%

Ad Orientem · Post by **Ad Orientem** » Tue Jan 03, 2012 12:32 am

Gold +5 to 10%
Stocks -10%
LTT +20%

Leonardo DiCaprio wins best actor for playing J Edgar Hoover
The NY Mets win the World Series in six games over the Texas Rangers
Mitt Romney (gag) wins the GOP nomination for president and loses in the general election to Obama when Ron Paul voters and Evangelical Protestants refuse to back him.

Lone Wolf · Post by **Lone Wolf** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 4:35 pm

I'll go with:

Stocks -15%
LT Bonds +10%
Gold +25%
Cash +1%

Permanent Portfolio +5.25%

AdamA · Post by **AdamA** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 5:45 pm

Reub wrote: Can I wait until the end of December to make my predictions?

Just make them now and then claim you were right in December, no matter what the reality is.

Storm · Post by **Storm** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:25 pm

I'll go with stocks +15%
LT Bonds -20%
Gold +25%
Cash +1%

murphy_p_t · Post by **murphy_p_t** » Sun Jan 08, 2012 12:54 am

silver to hit $60 @ some time in next 12 months

BugMan · Post by **BugMan** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:55 am

VTI +15%
GLD +8%
TLT +7%
SHY +1%

PRPFX +7%

Boston Bruins will win the Stanley Cup (again)

PP67 · Post by **PP67** » Mon Dec 17, 2012 1:29 pm

As of 12/14/2012, a GLD/TLT/VTI/SHY portfolio is 6.9% YTD...

If it holds, Bugman will have won the Rule #4 Prognosticator of The Year Award for 2012 with his 7% prediction...

The "fiscal cliff" might still have a play though before the year is out...

Stay tuned!