the cockroach strategy

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sfreeman
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the cockroach strategy

Post by sfreeman » Fri Nov 23, 2012 8:29 am

Dylan Grice- Strategist @ SocGen  another HB PP
convert with his "cockroach strategy."

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... oodbye.pdf
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by MediumTex » Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:27 am

I searched the document to see how gracious Mr. Grice was in crediting Harry Browne as the source of Mr. Grice's cockroach epiphany.

As usual with these guys, there was no attribution at all, leaving readers to think that it was Mr. Grice's cleverness that came up with this brilliant strategy, rather than some research assistant stumbling upon it and figuring that Mr. Grice's readers wouldn't be clever enough themselves to figure out that this whole piece was a repackaged ripoff of someone else's thinking.

Imagine if the book that Craig and I wrote had been titled: "The Permanent Portfolio: Rowland and Lawson's Long-Term Investment Strategy."  It would be unthinkable to me to write about Harry Browne's work without giving Mr. Browne credit.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by quenali » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:26 pm

Is it possible he never heard of HB?  I can't imagine anyone writing this article while knowing HBs investment philosophy.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by jimbojones » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:35 pm

quenali wrote: Is it possible he never heard of HB?  I can't imagine anyone writing this article while knowing HBs investment philosophy.
It's not impossible that he would independently come up with the same idea as Browne and then backtest it over the same period as we see here.  It's just really suspicious.  I was shocked that a reference to Harry Browne and/or the Permanent Portfolio was omitted.  From the article:
It would be inflation resistant, deflation resistant, credit inflation resistant, credit deflation resistant ? despite having ?no view? on which scenario was more likely at any point in time.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by LifestyleFreedom » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:41 pm

The article does not talk about which kinds of bonds, nor does it mention rebalancing.  But even if the author did know about Harry Browne, that in my opinion does not necessarily make it stealing someone else's ideas.

One of the reasons I was impressed with Fail-Safe Investing, for example, is that many of the concepts in that book are also discussed in The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.  The main concept behind investing successfully is to treat investing as a business rather than as a game of chance.  Both authors do an excellent job in this regard even though their implementation techniques vary somewhat.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by Tortoise » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:43 pm

jimbojones wrote:
quenali wrote: Is it possible he never heard of HB?  I can't imagine anyone writing this article while knowing HBs investment philosophy.
It's not impossible that he would independently come up with the same idea as Browne and then backtest it over the same period as we see here.  It's just really suspicious.  I was shocked that a reference to Harry Browne and/or the Permanent Portfolio was omitted.
I agree, it's a little suspicious. A quick Google search of the strategy he's describing, e.g. "equal parts stocks bonds gold cash" or "25% stocks bonds gold cash" turns up several Permanent Portfolio and Harry Browne links in the first handful of results.

If the author had indeed never come across the PP or Harry Browne, what that basically means is that he didn't even do the most basic Google search of his strategy prior to publishing the article. In other words, he didn't research his topic very well.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by craigr » Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:16 pm

MediumTex wrote:Imagine if the book that Craig and I wrote had been titled: "The Permanent Portfolio: Rowland and Lawson's Long-Term Investment Strategy."  It would be unthinkable to me to write about Harry Browne's work without giving Mr. Browne credit.
Indeed. I give Harry Browne, Terry Coxon and his team all the credit. A big reason I started my blog back in 2008 was since Harry Browne's passing his great ideas were starting to fade away and I thought they should be learned by more people. I couldn't imagine talking about the strategy without mentioning where it originated.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by HB Reader » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:12 pm

A couple of days ago I sent an e-mail to the author (copied to two cohorts at SOCIETE GENERALE) asking him if he was aware of HB's Permanent Portfolio strategy and HB's books in the 1980's and 1990's, as well as of his newsletter from 1974 to 1997.

I have yet to receive a reply.  My guess is I probably won't.

As someone who began reading HB in 1974, this article without attribution really got my dander up.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by clacy » Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:03 pm

I find it hard to believe that a top level strategist at SG wouldn't be aware of the PP or Harry Browne. 

Also, I can't think of a worse nickname for a strategy than the cockroach portfolio.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:48 pm

HB Reader wrote: A couple of days ago I sent an e-mail to the author (copied to two cohorts at SOCIETE GENERALE) asking him if he was aware of HB's Permanent Portfolio strategy and HB's books in the 1980's and 1990's, as well as of his newsletter from 1974 to 1997.

I have yet to receive a reply.  My guess is I probably won't.

As someone who began reading HB in 1974, this article without attribution really got my dander up.
I completely agree. It is unethical and damned low class. Morally this is plagiarism.
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Re: the cockroach strategy

Post by MediumTex » Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:01 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
HB Reader wrote: A couple of days ago I sent an e-mail to the author (copied to two cohorts at SOCIETE GENERALE) asking him if he was aware of HB's Permanent Portfolio strategy and HB's books in the 1980's and 1990's, as well as of his newsletter from 1974 to 1997.

I have yet to receive a reply.  My guess is I probably won't.

As someone who began reading HB in 1974, this article without attribution really got my dander up.
I completely agree. It is unethical and damned low class. Morally this is plagiarism.
Several others have done it in recent years.

Ray Dalio talked about the strategy in general terms and didn't say a word about Harry Browne.  If you read Dalio's "Manifesto" it is clear he knows who Harry Browne is.

Even Michael Cuggino goes on TV all the time and never says a word about where the strategy for his fund came from.

All these guys would have to do would be to say something like "What we are using is a variant of a concept originally developed by a man named Harry Browne..."
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