Oh how it hurts to see no gains

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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Libertarian666
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Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:43 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:32 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:26 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed May 29, 2013 5:57 pm
I guess I must be weird. I value my portfolio every week, and am down a lot more than 2% for the year (being very gold-heavy), but that doesn't impel me to do anything stupid.
You weird??!! Prior to reading what you wrote above I had a picture of you as being Mr. Everyman.

Vinny
I believe that's the first time anyone has ever called me "Mr. Everyman".
I'm not insulted, just surprised.
I was NOT being serious. And, just as in real life, because I'm generally so serious that no gets when I am making a joke I was afraid that the same thing would happen here.

You are definitely the OPPOSITE of Mr. Everyman!

Vinny
Aw, shucks.
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vnatale
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Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

Post by vnatale » Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:08 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:43 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:32 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:26 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed May 29, 2013 5:57 pm
I guess I must be weird. I value my portfolio every week, and am down a lot more than 2% for the year (being very gold-heavy), but that doesn't impel me to do anything stupid.
You weird??!! Prior to reading what you wrote above I had a picture of you as being Mr. Everyman.

Vinny
I believe that's the first time anyone has ever called me "Mr. Everyman".
I'm not insulted, just surprised.
I was NOT being serious. And, just as in real life, because I'm generally so serious that no gets when I am making a joke I was afraid that the same thing would happen here.

You are definitely the OPPOSITE of Mr. Everyman!

Vinny
Aw, shucks.
It was a compliment! You are FAR more interesting than a Mr. Everyman!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Libertarian666
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Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:25 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:08 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:43 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:32 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:26 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed May 29, 2013 5:57 pm
I guess I must be weird. I value my portfolio every week, and am down a lot more than 2% for the year (being very gold-heavy), but that doesn't impel me to do anything stupid.
You weird??!! Prior to reading what you wrote above I had a picture of you as being Mr. Everyman.

Vinny
I believe that's the first time anyone has ever called me "Mr. Everyman".
I'm not insulted, just surprised.
I was NOT being serious. And, just as in real life, because I'm generally so serious that no gets when I am making a joke I was afraid that the same thing would happen here.

You are definitely the OPPOSITE of Mr. Everyman!

Vinny
Aw, shucks.
It was a compliment! You are FAR more interesting than a Mr. Everyman!

Vinny
I know. I was just pulling your leg. O0
D1984
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Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

Post by D1984 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:49 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:53 pm
When I don’t hold Tlt but own some gold I end up with an interesting low volatile model ..

When I take the fidelity insight income model which is 25% equities and consists of Ultra short term bonds ,short to intermediate term bonds and floating rate bonds and couple it with about 10% gold it is a nice little package with not a lot of interest rate volatility.

Unlike those days where Tlt has you cringing these bonds funds move only slightly in comparison. Equity coverage is the same .

That is one of the reasons I prefer it to the pp.. rising rates are not as damaging
Is the Fidelity Insight Income model the one at https://www.fmandi.com/about/performance/perf_i.php ? If so, it seems it (the Insight Income Model by itself without any gold added) has returned a CAGR of just under 5.40% since its 12-31-1991 inception and has managed to do so while losing nearly 19% in 2008; given that both the November 2008 low and the final early March 2009 low were lower than the 12-31-2008 close I would suspect this implies a MaxDD of around 22 or 23% on a month-to-month basis. How is this better than, say, a mix of 60% Vanguard Wellesley, 30% STTs, and 10% cash; such a portfolio would've had a worst year of -3.75% and a maxDD on a month-to-month worst basis of -9.57% while providing a CAGR of almost a full point higher than the Insight Income model? Oh, BTW, the above is assuming you do not use admiral shares for VFISX and VWINX and then only use T-bills as cash; if you used Admiral shares and used a money market account/high-yield savings/MMMF/I-bond combo for the cash that would skew the results even further against the Insight Income model.

I'm not trying to insult you or pick on the Fidelity Advisor newsletter but I am curious to know how one could come to the conclusion that the Insight Income model is such great shakes if it can't even beat a plain boring mix of VWINX, cash, and short-term treasuries yet still manages a maxDD that is over twice as much and requiring one to pay $127 a year to access it to boot.

I don't get it; while the Unique Opportunities and the Select have pulverized their benchmark it seems that the Income model has done worse than any reasonable similar benchmark for it (indeed, no benchmark is provided on their website). What gives?
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mathjak107
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Re: Oh how it hurts to see no gains

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:44 am

the income model is 75% low volatility bond funds , it is not designed to be a growth and income model , it is designed for current income , to be used in conjunction with a growth oriented model too . big difference compared to wellesly which is a growth and income model . that is why there is an income model and a growth and income model . two different purposes

it really is designed to provide more yield than a total bond fund but that really is it . its goal is to be 67% less volatile than the s&p 500

2008 was a fluke ... the fidelity ULTRA conservative bond funds held paper that eventually turned out to be not trade-able ... so even a total bond fund was down ..

none of the models contain what they did in 2008 . even fidelitty ultra conservative bond fund got hit bad in 2008 from these products that froze up in the credit markets .

my money market broke the buck and went under so it really was an exceptional time and those products are now gone ..


it gained 11% last year .. not bad from 75% bonds and not taking on excessive interest rate risk like TLT . .

i am using it as a holding place now coupled with my trading until i get more value in the growth and income model after a correction .

we had over 350k in gains last year so we can sit back a bit and chill now .

https://www.fmandi.com/about/models.php
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