Let me guess, everything's great!

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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buddtholomew
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Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:32 am

This portfolio is fucked FUBAR.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Sun Sep 14, 2014 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:39 am

Fucked? Looks to me like it's up almost 7% YTD with no drawdowns vs its starting value. Seems like it's doing its thing.

[img width=500]https://i.imgur.com/P6U9bQl.png[/img]

Today isn't so hot… but today doesn't look very hot for anything.
Last edited by Pointedstick on Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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technovelist
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by technovelist » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:27 am

Pointedstick wrote: Fucked? Looks to me like it's up almost 7% YTD with no drawdowns vs its starting value. Seems like it's doing its thing.

[img width=500]https://i.imgur.com/P6U9bQl.png[/img]

Today isn't so hot… but today doesn't look very hot for anything.
Yes, but it isn't up EVERY DAY! We're all doomed!!!!!  :P
Last edited by technovelist on Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:29 am

I was not referring to YTD performance, but your point is well taken.

Rising interest rates and the strengthening dollar are both wreaking havoc on the portfolio.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:36 am

Pointedstick,

Is that your specific PP you are charting with ETFReplay or is it one of the ETF traded ones?

Thanks,

Mike

PS, the past couple weeks have been painful, for sure, but from where I was at (mainly in precious metals/PM stocks) the 1.8% or so drop in value over the past 2-3 weeks in my PP is PEANUTS compared to where I would have been before the change!
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Tyler
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by Tyler » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:37 am

[img width=500]http://memetogo.com/media/created/gawpkc.jpg[/img]

;)

It's been a down week, but the last few months have been pretty good.  Try not to overreact. 
Last edited by Tyler on Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by barrett » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:55 am

Tyler, that was friggin' brilliant.

I too am feeling the pain this month. I am terribly loss averse and would do well to only check on this stuff every few months. It's just hard to ignore the markets and PP performance when checking out this forum.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:56 am

Cortopassi wrote: Pointedstick,

Is that your specific PP you are charting with ETFReplay or is it one of the ETF traded ones?
It's charting VTI, TLT, GLD, and SHY.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar don't particularly worry me. For as much as the portfolio drops in the present (and it has been a minuscule amount, let's be fair), these are good portents for the future. We'll get higher rates for bonds we purchase, and our dollars will buy more goods with foreign components (i.e. nearly all of them).
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by goodasgold » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:44 pm

Yes, Budd, to put it slightly differently, the PP's performance over the past few days has not been optimal.  ::) :P :-X :-[ :-\ :'(

But we gotta put on our asbestos underwear and think long term. And long term the PP is champ, IMHO.

Unless, of course, you want to cash in all your chips (including cash) to invest in that very attractive frog farm in Ecuador. Or how about a technical institute for lava lamp repairmen?  8)

Who was that comedian in the 80s [?] who used to peach passionately as the minister of The Church of What's Happening Now? Among his favorite rants to his parishioners was something like: "We all gotta pray hard to pass the test! Everybody has to take the test. The only problem is, nobody has ever passed the test!"
Last edited by goodasgold on Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by iwealth » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:53 pm

September/October time of year, November elections, a tightening federal reserve, and all-time market highs will at least make investing interesting for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Sep 12, 2014 12:56 pm

@Tyler
ROFL! That's worth at least 50 cool points.
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Re: Let me guess, everything's great!

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:38 pm

If I were in a stock heavy portfolio for the past couple years and looking for something to diversify into, the pp would be looking pretty good right now. As a holder of the pp, I'm doing fine, but from the perspective of an outsider, gold is depressed, bonds might not move in the same direction as stocks, cash could be a good anchor. Don't want to performance-chase. But that's just me.

Tyler, that was note perfect.  :)
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