No where to hide

[PP67]

I may be a little too simple-minded on this but if I post the Peak-to-Trough results of a HBPP allocation for the time I've been using it and post the resulting CAGR on Tyler's terrific PP real returns over time plot and it is within the bands shown for that time period, I conclude that there is nothing really wrong with how the PP is performing up to this point...  I may be currently below the median point but I am above the low point...  I may have been hoping for the median return but I shouldn't complain if I am somewhere along that vertical range of outcomes...

http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/pe ... portfolio/

[Reub]

Wasn't it nice when we had the two people who started this website always posting on here (and on the Bogleheads site beforehand) and they were always promoting, explaining and defending the PP? Why did they stop? I miss that!

I think it was Bob Dylan who said, I don't need to refute every allegation about me. I think it's enough that there is always *someone* on this forum at any given time who is willing to reiterate the principles. I mean, it's got to get boring after a while for the same person to have to keep doing it. The book is out there. The forum is out there. Why not just reread what they already wrote if it hasn't changed?

You make it sound like they started a scam and then ran off with ill-gotten gains.

I always wonder how 90-year-old Taylor Larimore keeps it up at Bogleheads.

Where did I say that they started a scam? I just wonder how they could be so into the PP to engage in vehement post after post on the BH site, then start this site, write a book about it, and then pretty much disappear for long periods of time. It doesn't take a lot of effort to write an occasional post or two on a semi-regular basis as most of my posts prove.

[dualstow]

Where did I say that they started a scam? I just wonder how they could be so into the PP to engage in vehement post after post on the BH site, then start this site, write a book about it, and then pretty much disappear for long periods of time. It doesn't take a lot of effort to write an occasional post or two on a semi-regular basis as most of my posts prove.

You never did, explicitly. But, since this is not the first time you've asked, in essence, "Where are they now", I get the feeling that some people feel they were just out to sell books -- in fact, didn't this come up once? -- and I seriously doubt they made a ton of money off of those book sales. If you don't feel that it's a scam, I'm happy. But, once we know how the pp works, how much handholding do we really need? And does it have to be from those two?

[MediumTex]

Yeah, where are those guys?

I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.

[mathjak107]

Brazil with the book money ...

[MediumTex]

Brazil with the book money ...

Probably so.

[dualstow]

Currently "washing" the money through a carpet vacuuming business, as the authorities have really clamped down on car washes since Breaking Bad was broadcast.

[Reub]

It's good to see I've flushed one of them out! At least for one day.

[MediumTex]

It's good to see I've flushed one of them out! At least for one day.

Here is my answer to that.

[Greg]

Wonder if John Travolta was talking to this guy?

[craigr]

Yeah, where are those guys?

I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.

I'm sorry but my satellite comms on my globetrotting yacht was down for a few days so I couldn't post.

But you know the best thing about writing a book on a niche investing strategy is? The free bar of gold we receive each month for our efforts. Not to mention the extensive fees we receive for each post we make on an internet forum. The profits vs. time expended has been phenomenal. Frankly, I have had a hell of a hard time spending all the money on just strippers. I need to find either a good healthy drug addiction to blow all the royalties, or more expensive strippers.

[dualstow]

You need a snortfolio.

[MediumTex]

Yeah, where are those guys?

I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.

I'm sorry but my satellite comms on my globetrotting yacht was down for a few days so I couldn't post.

Whoa dude, you only have one yacht?

I bought a yacht for every member of my family.  I named them the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa Maria, the Palais Aqua, and the J-Law PP Pimp Pod.

I'm like L. Ron Hubbard sans the 501(c) tax exempt status.

And the groupies...don't even get me started.  I'm thinking about buying another yacht just for them.  I'm going to call it "Browne Skeazin".

[Reub]

Yeah, where are those guys?

I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.

I'm sorry but my satellite comms on my globetrotting yacht was down for a few days so I couldn't post.

Whoa dude, you only have one yacht?

I bought a yacht for every member of my family.  I named them the Nina, the Pinta, the Santa Maria, the Palais Aqua, and the J-Law PP Pimp Pod.

I'm like L. Ron Hubbard sans the 501(c) tax exempt status.

And the groupies...don't even get me started.  I'm thinking about buying another yacht just for them.  I'm going to call it "Browne Skeazin".

Look! They're alive!!

[dualstow]

The hedonistic excesses that Craig and MT are wallowing in will one day end ... but meanwhile, I will sit in this rocking chair, rocking back and forth, cursing their names.

Didn't Harry Browne's radio ad used to say,
You can curse me online, or print out your curse and invoke it in your easy chair.

[MachineGhost]

they may end up severely under funded  for that luxury and that is the danger.

There is no alternative.  Load up on obscenely overvalued stocks?  Load up on longest duration T-Bonds while they're at a 5,000 year low in interest rates, soon to reverse course starting in the next few days?  Load up on a useless, barbarous lump of shiny metal that is no longer money, never will be again and will only have demand in that short period of time where confidence in government and the financial system has been lost but is still standing like a mirage?

Seriously man, you better plan for a SWR way below what you expect historically because neither stocks nor bonds are going to offer that for the next 17 years.  Again, what is the alternative?

[mathjak107]

unconventional times may call for unconventional investing and i think integrated strategy's  using spia's and perhaps life insurance with your own ivesting may be the new answer for the new times for retirees  .

dead body's are a lot more predictable then markets and rates .

research is showing very good results with integrated  strategy's 

[MachineGhost]

Wasn't it nice when we had the two people who started this website always posting on here (and on the Bogleheads site beforehand) and they were always promoting, explaining and defending the PP? Why did they stop? I miss that!

They jinxed it by releasing a book!  Just as I feared at the time.

[MachineGhost]

In your eyes, the PP can do no wrong. Why don't you admit that it is not working as expected. Down 2/4 years or 50% of the time I have been invested.

If the PP is too risky for you as it is for me, I have come up with an alternative: the PP Jr.

[MachineGhost]

Yeah, where are those guys?

I heard that one of them ran off to Japan for awhile.

I thought it was Argentina?

And then one of them fled with his ill gotten cash to legally immigrate to New Zealand (of all places!).

[MachineGhost]

unconventional times may call for unconventional investing and i think integrated strategy's  using spia's and perhaps life insurance with your own ivesting may be the new answer for the new times for retirees  .

dead body's are a lot more predictable then markets and rates .

research is showing very good results with integrated  strategy's

I hope you start a new thread on this.  I've always been big on diversifying within the asset classes because human fads are unpredictable to be caught being dead all in one.

[mathjak107]

i didn't plan on it , i get enough grief here  ha ha ha 

[MachineGhost]

If you are going to make a statement like this, how about elaborating on what exactly it means? Without substance, the statement is just blather.

Me, blather?  Never!  I will start a new thread for your sake.

[4x4]

they may end up severely under funded  for that luxury and that is the danger.

There is no alternative.  Load up on obscenely overvalued stocks?  Load up on longest duration T-Bonds while they're at a 5,000 year low in interest rates, soon to reverse course starting in the next few days?  Load up on a useless, barbarous lump of shiny metal that is no longer money, never will be again and will only have demand in that short period of time where confidence in government and the financial system has been lost but is still standing like a mirage?

Seriously man, you better plan for a SWR way below what you expect historically because neither stocks nor bonds are going to offer that for the next 17 years.  Again, what is the alternative?

In reference to the portion above I bolded, truer words may have never been spoken.

Is there not ANY time in history we can look to to see how history will rhyme this time around???

[DragonJoey3]

they may end up severely under funded  for that luxury and that is the danger.

There is no alternative.  Load up on obscenely overvalued stocks?  Load up on longest duration T-Bonds while they're at a 5,000 year low in interest rates, soon to reverse course starting in the next few days?  Load up on a useless, barbarous lump of shiny metal that is no longer money, never will be again and will only have demand in that short period of time where confidence in government and the financial system has been lost but is still standing like a mirage?

Seriously man, you better plan for a SWR way below what you expect historically because neither stocks nor bonds are going to offer that for the next 17 years.  Again, what is the alternative?

In reference to the portion above I bolded, truer words may have never been spoken.

Is there not ANY time in history we can look to to see how history will rhyme this time around???

I think there is any number of different ways that things could work out for the better, and the idea that "the good times are over, and we're all screwed" is wrong.

Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid will bankrupt the US!

The most common age in America is now 22!  With the 2nd and third most common ages being 21 and 23! source.  Although millennials may get the rap for having "bad work ethic" so has every other generation for every decade ever, and like it or not they are entering the workforce in droves.  Like it or not old people die, and yes medical care in the US needs reform, but the baby boomers aside we are leveling out in population growth, and there is no reason to think that it won't remain solvent for years to come.

China/India/Brazil is going to overtake us and we will all be broke!

The list of former economic superpowers [Germany, Britain, etc...] has a long list of problems, but life went on in those countries, and life will continue in the US.  Of course China will overtake us in terms of economic output, they outnumber us 3 to 1, how could they not?  It will take time, and there is no reason that even if not the #1 economy in the world that the US will not continue to be prosperous and to provide one of the highest standards of living the world over.

Climate change will kill us all

The good news is many people are waking up to the reality that you can't just take trillions of tons of carbon out of the ground light it on fire and say "nah that won't cause any change at all!"  If scientific data is correct (and I know some reading this would question it) then yes, there will be problems in the future and pipers to pay, but the US is better positioned than most countries to deal with it (sorry Bangladesh you are done for.)

The US will go Japanese and deflation ad nauseum.

There are any number of reasons this won't happen, most of which are too complex to get into on a single comment ranging from exports/natural resources, to birth rates, to immigration and exchange with other countries.  Even if the US does go Japan and deflation continues, the fact is that many reading this are still much better off than their fellow man/ rest of the country.

Terrorists will kill us all.

There are many fewer terrorists than you might think.

Nuclear war with Russia.

Well that's always a possibility, but I don't really think Russia wants that.  At the moment most Russians just want to be able to afford toilet paper.

AND ON AND ON IT GOES!

Back in the "glory days" of the US we had just emerged from WWII, where unemployment was 0%.  We had the highest debt to GDP ratio ever, we went off the gold standard, we were in constant fear of A-bombs falling "Duck and Cover anyone?", we were certain the world would end at any moment, and what followed?  One of the greatest technological and financial growth periods in modern history.  The US went from the superpower that saved the world, to the superpower that owned the world!

I think far too many people look at history, they see 4% as the safe return from the over 100 years of stock market history, and they think, "yea, that'll never last, this time is different."

I think the PP does a great job at providing economic safety in the worst of times, and decent prosperity in the best.  Living in a country that supports free-markets, living below your means, investing the rest, and saving for the future -- these are some of the core tenants of the PP, and they will work.

Perhaps there are dark times ahead, but in the words of Albus Dumbledore ~ "Happiness can be found, even in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.'