The Reason to Quit PP

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:04 pm

mathjak107 wrote: i agree , i just do not see in the long term scheme of things at this point a need for gold or as much gold . i much rather try to put that money to better use making it more productive . i know my comfort limits and i try to stay within them leaving lots of slack in the plan . i always have an end game view . not  a year or 5 years or even 10 years .  so far gold has not demonstrated through anything we have been through that at the end of the game  it was worth tying up money in it .  by an end game view i mean at the and of a 30-35 year  accumulation stage or a 30-35 year retirement time frame .
I don't either.  But when gold does bottom, I will load up.  Will you?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2764
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:05 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: well for 40 years it has been a crappy hedge .  a t-bill performed as a  hedge  better  then gold  .because  if gold tracks inflation which it did then any fund  fees  or storage and insurance fees  would have had  the gold  lagging inflation .  so as a hedge it either had nothing to hedge against over the long term since it returned about 4 .50% cagr  , and as an inflation hedge a rolled over t-bill did better
Gold has acted as a hedge about half the time; typically when T-Bonds don't do the job.  It's the backup to the backup.
over those total  long time frames gold averaged out to nothing more than inflation . it hedged nothing that other assets didn't do better .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2764
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:07 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
mathjak107 wrote: i agree , i just do not see in the long term scheme of things at this point a need for gold or as much gold . i much rather try to put that money to better use making it more productive . i know my comfort limits and i try to stay within them leaving lots of slack in the plan . i always have an end game view . not  a year or 5 years or even 10 years .  so far gold has not demonstrated through anything we have been through that at the end of the game  it was worth tying up money in it .  by an end game view i mean at the and of a 30-35 year  accumulation stage or a 30-35 year retirement time frame .
I don't either.  But when gold does bottom, I will load up.  Will you?

maybe , maybe not , depends on what the big picture shows , buying on price may not mean a thing  if conditions never come around for it it . .  i hate being the guy in the bahamas owning a winter coat collection because it was on sale .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:40 pm

mathjak107 wrote: i would think most rebalancing would take money away from stocks and bonds and send it to gold .  i can only imagine how much all that gold money would have grown in stocks and bonds by today .
Paper and electrons are only good for wiping your ass if the government or financial system collapses.  Do you realize how lucky you are and have been being an American in the century that just passed?  That's what I mean by you suffering from a severe recency bias.  You simply lack historical context of how bad it was for others who did not have your luck.  And you're making the most major assumption that the future will be exactly like the past when any reading of the tea leaves will show you that current conditions are far outside any historical norm.

I know Morgan said you can never go broke betting on America, but no empire lasts forever.  And right now we're all at the tail end of its eclipse (we've got 17 years left).  This isn't 1906 or 1987 anymore; its the end of the beginning.

Just trying to broaden your perspective, that's all.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:41 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Did you not see that in the past 40 years the asset most balanced out of for hitting 35% was gold?  Are you choosing to ignore that?
That's just because gold was far more volatility than the others.  The HBPP is not at risk parity.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2764
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:43 pm

well then if you think a financial debacle is coming do what you got to do .  but why stop with gold , why not go the route of the doomsday prepers since their vision in their head is as real to them as yours is to you .
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:44 pm

mathjak107 wrote: over those total  long time frames gold averaged out to nothing more than inflation . it hedged nothing that other assets didn't do better .
Which is the point when those other assets F-A-I-L.  Recency bias.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:46 pm

mathjak107 wrote: well then if you think a financial debacle is coming do what you got to do .  but why stop with gold , why not go the route of the doomsday prepers since their vision in their head is as real to them as yours is to you .
Because I prefer to be grounded in reality?  We're not going back to the Stone Age or barter.  I don't see any threat on the horizon that would justify becoming one of those Prepper nuts.  You probably should think hard about what threats I do see on the horizon, since they're not a figment of my imagination.  WAKE UP.  Retirement is the worst possible time to be caught unprepared.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1806
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:46 pm

I'm getting a bag of popcorn.  MJ vs. MG!!
But what do I know?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2764
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:50 pm

nah , no one knows what is going to be ,  i grew up in the 1970's when it looked like nothing could get any worse but you know what , we did okay . higher unemploymnt then we just had , soaring inflation , vietnam  a dead stock market , bonds in the toilet , high tax rates , gas lines  and no end in sight
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:51 pm

mathjak107 wrote: nah , no one knows what is going to be ,  i grew up in the 1970's when it looked like nothing could get any worse but you know what , we did okay .
Exception to the rule.  Maybe you should look into the experience of other countries during the 1970's where gold would have literally saved your ass.  How do you feel about Iceland a couple of years ago?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2764
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:53 pm

we don't know how many were killed or had the gold they tried to use get taken .gold bugs always have that vision of buying their way out . i bet most just had it taken and were killed or robbed of it ..
Post Reply