Mathjak's Market Calls
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- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
it will be like this until the rate increase .
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
for the week no changes to the portfolio's but i did add exxon back as my speculation stock . i owned it last month and sold it at a 15% profit 10 days later . so trying again since it is back in to the high 70';s again . i was going to take a speculative short term shot with gld but with exxon coming down i prefer exxon to gld .
all fidelity models still positive fractionally ,
for comparison pp is down 3% assuming at least 1% on cash .
tlt down 3%
gld down 9%
vti down 1%
cash +1%
fidelity insight growth model up .25%- 90% stock allocation
growth and income model up .01 69/31 stocks/bonds
income and capital preservation model up .03 26/ 74% stocks/bonds
the speculative select model for ghost , since he expressed interest is down 2.90%
so far all portfolio models including the pp have fallen below my reference for the year , which is if i did nothing that year but buy a cd is the trouble of investing worth it .
so far the cd wins but i think the models will all end positive in december beating the cd but not by much .
there was a 120k difference between the models and the pp last week based on the amounts i would have had invested , this week there is a 90k difference .
i will post the dollars difference each week as that is what counts at the end of the day .
anyone feel like tracking the IVY YTD ? that would give us the pp , conventional investing models of all volatility levels and risk mgmt models in real time .
all fidelity models still positive fractionally ,
for comparison pp is down 3% assuming at least 1% on cash .
tlt down 3%
gld down 9%
vti down 1%
cash +1%
fidelity insight growth model up .25%- 90% stock allocation
growth and income model up .01 69/31 stocks/bonds
income and capital preservation model up .03 26/ 74% stocks/bonds
the speculative select model for ghost , since he expressed interest is down 2.90%
so far all portfolio models including the pp have fallen below my reference for the year , which is if i did nothing that year but buy a cd is the trouble of investing worth it .
so far the cd wins but i think the models will all end positive in december beating the cd but not by much .
there was a 120k difference between the models and the pp last week based on the amounts i would have had invested , this week there is a 90k difference .
i will post the dollars difference each week as that is what counts at the end of the day .
anyone feel like tracking the IVY YTD ? that would give us the pp , conventional investing models of all volatility levels and risk mgmt models in real time .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
nice jump in exxon yesterday . a another couple of days like that and it will be profit taking time in it again . eventually it will go on to be higher after i sell but i really don't care with these quick speculations .
if i can get another 3% on top of yesterdays gain trading in and out the last 5 weeks resulted in a 20% profit .
if i can get another 3% on top of yesterdays gain trading in and out the last 5 weeks resulted in a 20% profit .
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
Exxon down 1.16% today. You forgot to post it.
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
once a week i will. It was up 3.50% yesterday.
Gld was down 1.32% today and wasn't up 3.50% yesterday so i am glad i did not go with it.
Gld was down 1.32% today and wasn't up 3.50% yesterday so i am glad i did not go with it.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
weekly update . no changes
fidelity insight growth model up 3.50% YTD
growth and income model up 2.50% YTD
capital preservation and income model up 1% YTD
exxon i bought last weel flat .
PP is still down - minus 2% YTD
difference between 50/50 portfolio and PP is 110K . just a little less then the 120k we had as a max difference in balance since i have been posting this .
fidelity insight growth model up 3.50% YTD
growth and income model up 2.50% YTD
capital preservation and income model up 1% YTD
exxon i bought last weel flat .
PP is still down - minus 2% YTD
difference between 50/50 portfolio and PP is 110K . just a little less then the 120k we had as a max difference in balance since i have been posting this .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
xom sold today . another 2-1/2% profit on top of the 16% . i will likely re-buy when it falls back in to the 70's again . .
a few analysts rated xom under perform so i will see if that drives it lower .
a few analysts rated xom under perform so i will see if that drives it lower .
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
i didn't lose anything i sold it this morning at a profit . i went up a bit since i sold this morning but that is okay . i have never caught the top in anything in ny given day nor the bottom . it may even go higher tomorrow . but when you do things by the seat of your pants that is how it goes .
but the profits are usually good regardless and it is only fun money
but the profits are usually good regardless and it is only fun money
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
- mathjak107
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
well yes , if i didn't make it , i lost it , so in wall street thinking you are correct .
but my piggy bank says we are still another 2-1/2 % higher than had we not bought it barely a week ago . .
but my piggy bank says we are still another 2-1/2 % higher than had we not bought it barely a week ago . .
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
Time for a mathjak update. What's the YTD?
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
Mathjak has long since been banned.Tom wrote:With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
I don't think that is correct. My understanding is that he left voluntarily because we are a bunch of Kool-Aid drinkers.Xan wrote:Mathjak has long since been banned.Tom wrote:With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
Mathjak was not banned that I'm aware of and I just checked his account and it is not banned.
Very few people have ever been banned from this forum. You really need to go above and beyond to get banned, or be an outright spammer.
Very few people have ever been banned from this forum. You really need to go above and beyond to get banned, or be an outright spammer.
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
I stand corrected!
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
barrett wrote:I don't think that is correct. My understanding is that he left voluntarily because we are a bunch of Kool-Aid drinkers.Xan wrote:Mathjak has long since been banned.Tom wrote:With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
The Kool-Aid is tasting pretty good right about now.
Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
Oh yeah!Tom wrote:The Kool-Aid is tasting pretty good right about now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n69H0JwsGI&t=0m11s
- vnatale
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
I was a dedicated Dick Fabian Telephone Switch Newsletter follower for at least 3 years from 1987 to 1990. Did the 100% switch EVERY time it was called for. Then changed to someone else's newsletter from then until sometime in the late 90s (during which I again strictly followed the 100% all in either equities or cash). Then I stopped completely following anyone's newsletter switches.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:07 pmwell whatever works . i never go in our out . we alter allocations a little or swap fund types but trying to bet the ranch on in or out of equity's is a game i have not played since fabians can't lose moving average newsletter .
that was until we lost ha ha ha
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- vnatale
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls
In regards to my prior post....it was the Father Fabian who I was following from 1987 to 1990.MangoMan wrote: ↑Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:27 pmFabian's problem wasn't that the system didn't work, it was that he stopped following his own rules [well, actually his father's rules] and started trying to second guess the mechanical switch signals, and guessed wrong too many times. Proving once again, the difficulty of following rules when emotions are involved and also the inability of anyone to time the market.mathjak107 wrote: fabian had a pretty good track record back in the day with his moving average system . his newsletter was hot . his thing was he would sacrifice the 10% at the top and bottom and you get the 80% in the middle .
well markets whip sawed the model so bad it fell way behind . the markets were acting faster than the moving averages could respond . eventually performance sucked .
so he went back to the lab and revised hings . he proclaimed it is going to be so god that he publicly posted his moves in his own portfolio .
needless to say it to failed o perform ,.
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."