Mathjak's Market Calls

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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lazyboy
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by lazyboy » Wed Nov 11, 2015 12:56 am

Thanks, Mj, good information on strategies. I also found this bogleheads discussion link about spia and balancing a portfolio:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=99684
It seems what strategy you take depends on the consideration of what risk level you are willing to have to meet your goals.
Inside of me there are two dogs. One is mean and evil and the other is good and they fight each other all the time. When asked which one wins I answer, the one I feed the most.�

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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:58 am

That is all it is about. Matching your pucker factor to realistic goals. 
As most find out looking at pretty charts and driving looking in the rear view mirror rarely gives you the results it shows previously.
Your returns and growth are all going to be unique to only you and your time frame.

The fact the pp had a good run when you had little money in it or the fact the stock markets had a great 17 year run when i had little money invested is a moot point.

What hits the hardest is what happens when you have maximum dollars accumulated.

In my case had i missed the last 5 years in equity's it would have had a huge effect on my retirement budget.  Like i said earlier , i couldn't care less that returns were weak from 2000 on . The proportion of money invested in 2000 was way way less.

So everything is about what happens to your biggest pile of dollars at any point in time.

There is likely not going to be one strategy or allocation that works all the time and forever .

It is up to you to monitor your own growth and find your own measuring stick to determine if you are on track or not.

Even small ups and downs can have pronounced effects depending on dollars accumulated.

The difference between the pp being down 2.50% and my model being up 2% is 120,000.00 dollars. That is more than most americans even have saved.
So little differences in how you allocate can produce big differences up and down.

Since 2000 volatility has become far greater and swings in allocations have been getting wider for the same allocation..

Perhaps future investing will involve insurance products designed to protect volatility from to much volatility. You can see on some down days even the pp swings more than 1% . That is like a 350 point drop in a  50/50 mix so the pp isn't really isolated either.
Going forward is going to have some pretty tough headwinds no matter what we do.

No matter what the plan you always need a plan B .
My plan B is my allocation allows me quite a few years in cash and bonds to wait out any down turns. The bonds are way less interest rate sensitive than long term bonds so if i have  to sell them during rising rates the losses will be slight.

I would hate to have to sell bonds that were as volatile as stocks if i needed to refill cash.



I also have taking social security as part of plan B . By filing it drops withdrawals way down..

Your plan B will vary.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Wed Nov 11, 2015 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by ochotona » Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:14 am

Another "Cash is King" morning!
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:48 am

it will be like this until the rate increase .
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 14, 2015 3:38 am

for the week  no changes to the portfolio's but i did add exxon back as my speculation stock  . i owned it last month and sold it at a 15% profit  10 days  later .  so trying again since it is back in to the high 70';s again .  i was going to take a speculative short term shot with gld but with exxon coming down i prefer exxon to gld .

all fidelity  models still positive  fractionally  ,

for comparison pp is down 3% assuming at least 1% on cash .

tlt down 3%
gld down 9%
vti down 1%
cash +1%


fidelity insight growth model up  .25%- 90% stock allocation

growth and income model  up .01  69/31  stocks/bonds

income and capital preservation  model  up .03  26/ 74%  stocks/bonds

the speculative select model for ghost , since he expressed interest  is down 2.90%

so far all  portfolio models including the pp have fallen below my reference for the year , which is if i did nothing that year  but buy a cd is the trouble of investing worth it  .

so far the cd wins but i think the models will all end positive in december  beating the cd but not by much .

there was a 120k difference between the models and the pp  last week based on the amounts i would have had invested , this week  there is a  90k  difference .

i will post the dollars difference each week as that is what counts at the end of the day .

anyone feel like tracking the IVY  YTD ?  that would give us the pp , conventional investing models of all volatility levels  and  risk mgmt models  in real time .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 14, 2015 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:09 am

nice  jump in exxon yesterday .  a another couple of days like  that and it will be profit taking time in it again .  eventually it will go on to be higher after i sell but i really don't care with these quick speculations .

if i can get another 3% on top of yesterdays gain  trading in and out the last 5 weeks resulted in a 20% profit .
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by Reub » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:35 pm

Exxon down 1.16% today. You forgot to post it.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:37 pm

once a week i will. It was up 3.50% yesterday.

Gld was down 1.32% today and wasn't up 3.50% yesterday so i am glad i did not go with it.
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:26 pm

weekly update  . no changes

fidelity insight growth model up 3.50% YTD

growth and income model  up 2.50% YTD

capital preservation and income  model up 1% YTD

exxon i bought last weel flat .

PP  is still down - minus 2%  YTD

difference  between  50/50  portfolio  and PP is  110K  . just  a little less then the 120k  we had as a max difference in balance  since i have been posting this .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 21, 2015 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:58 am

xom sold today .  another 2-1/2% profit on top of the 16% .  i will likely re-buy when it falls back in to the 70's again . .

a few analysts rated xom under perform so i will see if that drives it lower .
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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by tennpaga » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:10 am

You've lost 1.12% on XOM today so far.

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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:28 am

i didn't lose anything i sold it this morning at a profit . i  went up a bit since i sold this morning  but that is okay . i have never caught the top in anything in ny given day nor the bottom . it may even go higher tomorrow . but when you do things by the seat of your pants that is how it goes .

but the profits are usually good regardless and it is only fun money
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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