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Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:48 am
by mathjak107
it will be like this until the rate increase .

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2015 3:38 am
by mathjak107
for the week  no changes to the portfolio's but i did add exxon back as my speculation stock  . i owned it last month and sold it at a 15% profit  10 days  later .  so trying again since it is back in to the high 70';s again .  i was going to take a speculative short term shot with gld but with exxon coming down i prefer exxon to gld .

all fidelity  models still positive  fractionally  ,

for comparison pp is down 3% assuming at least 1% on cash .

tlt down 3%
gld down 9%
vti down 1%
cash +1%


fidelity insight growth model up  .25%- 90% stock allocation

growth and income model  up .01  69/31  stocks/bonds

income and capital preservation  model  up .03  26/ 74%  stocks/bonds

the speculative select model for ghost , since he expressed interest  is down 2.90%

so far all  portfolio models including the pp have fallen below my reference for the year , which is if i did nothing that year  but buy a cd is the trouble of investing worth it  .

so far the cd wins but i think the models will all end positive in december  beating the cd but not by much .

there was a 120k difference between the models and the pp  last week based on the amounts i would have had invested , this week  there is a  90k  difference .

i will post the dollars difference each week as that is what counts at the end of the day .

anyone feel like tracking the IVY  YTD ?  that would give us the pp , conventional investing models of all volatility levels  and  risk mgmt models  in real time .

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:09 am
by mathjak107
nice  jump in exxon yesterday .  a another couple of days like  that and it will be profit taking time in it again .  eventually it will go on to be higher after i sell but i really don't care with these quick speculations .

if i can get another 3% on top of yesterdays gain  trading in and out the last 5 weeks resulted in a 20% profit .

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:35 pm
by Reub
Exxon down 1.16% today. You forgot to post it.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:37 pm
by mathjak107
once a week i will. It was up 3.50% yesterday.

Gld was down 1.32% today and wasn't up 3.50% yesterday so i am glad i did not go with it.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:26 pm
by mathjak107
weekly update  . no changes

fidelity insight growth model up 3.50% YTD

growth and income model  up 2.50% YTD

capital preservation and income  model up 1% YTD

exxon i bought last weel flat .

PP  is still down - minus 2%  YTD

difference  between  50/50  portfolio  and PP is  110K  . just  a little less then the 120k  we had as a max difference in balance  since i have been posting this .

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:58 am
by mathjak107
xom sold today .  another 2-1/2% profit on top of the 16% .  i will likely re-buy when it falls back in to the 70's again . .

a few analysts rated xom under perform so i will see if that drives it lower .

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:28 am
by mathjak107
i didn't lose anything i sold it this morning at a profit . i  went up a bit since i sold this morning  but that is okay . i have never caught the top in anything in ny given day nor the bottom . it may even go higher tomorrow . but when you do things by the seat of your pants that is how it goes .

but the profits are usually good regardless and it is only fun money

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:49 am
by mathjak107
well yes , if i didn't make it , i lost it , so in wall street thinking you are correct .

but my piggy bank says we are still another 2-1/2 % higher than had we not bought it barely a week ago . .

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Mon May 09, 2016 1:40 pm
by Tom
Time for a mathjak update.  What's the YTD?

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:41 pm
by Tom
With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:51 pm
by Xan
Tom wrote:With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
Mathjak has long since been banned.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:24 am
by barrett
Xan wrote:
Tom wrote:With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
Mathjak has long since been banned.
I don't think that is correct. My understanding is that he left voluntarily because we are a bunch of Kool-Aid drinkers.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:28 pm
by craigr
Mathjak was not banned that I'm aware of and I just checked his account and it is not banned.

Very few people have ever been banned from this forum. You really need to go above and beyond to get banned, or be an outright spammer.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:45 am
by Xan
I stand corrected!

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:29 am
by Tom
barrett wrote:
Xan wrote:
Tom wrote:With the PP up above 10% YTD this year, I'm curious to know where you're at mathjak to see if your strategy is still up ahead or if this year balances out PP's lackluster performance last year.
Mathjak has long since been banned.
I don't think that is correct. My understanding is that he left voluntarily because we are a bunch of Kool-Aid drinkers.

The Kool-Aid is tasting pretty good right about now.

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:31 pm
by Xan
Tom wrote:The Kool-Aid is tasting pretty good right about now.
Oh yeah!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n69H0JwsGI&t=0m11s

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:49 pm
by vnatale
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:07 pm
well whatever works .  i never go in our out . we alter allocations a little or swap fund types but trying to bet the ranch on in or out of equity's is a game i have not played since fabians can't lose  moving average newsletter .

that was until we lost  ha ha ha
I was a dedicated Dick Fabian Telephone Switch Newsletter follower for at least 3 years from 1987 to 1990. Did the 100% switch EVERY time it was called for. Then changed to someone else's newsletter from then until sometime in the late 90s (during which I again strictly followed the 100% all in either equities or cash). Then I stopped completely following anyone's newsletter switches.

Vinny

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:51 pm
by vnatale
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2015 1:27 pm
mathjak107 wrote: fabian had a pretty good track  record back in the day with his moving average system .  his newsletter was hot . his thing was he would sacrifice the 10% at the top and bottom and you get the 80% in the middle .

well markets whip sawed the model so bad it fell way behind . the markets were acting faster than the moving averages could respond . eventually performance sucked .

so he went back to the lab and revised hings . he proclaimed it is going to be so god that he publicly posted his moves in his own portfolio .

needless to say it to failed o perform ,.
Fabian's problem wasn't that the system didn't work, it was that he stopped following his own rules [well, actually his father's rules] and started trying to second guess the mechanical switch signals, and guessed wrong too many times. Proving once again, the difficulty of following rules when emotions are involved and also the inability of anyone to time the market.
In regards to my prior post....it was the Father Fabian who I was following from 1987 to 1990.

Vinny