2017 PP Return Poll

General Discussion on the Permanent Portfolio Strategy

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How did your PP do for 2017? (poll)

1) Negative return
1
3%
2) 0-3%
3
9%
3) 3-6%
3
9%
4) 6-9%
2
6%
5) 9-12%
14
42%
6) 12%+
10
30%
 
Total votes: 33
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Ugly_Bird
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Yes, it's a little early.
Assuming it will not change drastically on 29th, my classical 4x25 HBPP is 10.4% YTD.
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drumminj
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by drumminj » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:01 pm

10.4% here, but I continued averaging into the PP this year. Increased my allocation to PP by about 15%, mostly by buying the lagging investment.

Ending the year at:

Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

Have to say I'm happy with the overall performance :)
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eufo
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by eufo » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:08 pm

Before I answer this, it becomes a bit confusing for me to break down my gains since I'm constantly throwing money into my accounts.

My finance software offers up ROI and IRR for possible metrics. For this year, ROI is around 7% while IRR is around 13%. Even after reading up on these, I'm not following which is actually a better measurement of performance.

Any opinions out there?
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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buddtholomew
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:14 pm

eufo wrote:Before I answer this, it becomes a bit confusing for me to break down my gains since I'm constantly throwing money into my accounts.

My finance software offers up ROI and IRR for possible metrics. For this year, ROI is around 7% while IRR is around 13%. Even after reading up on these, I'm not following which is actually a better measurement of performance.

Any opinions out there?
Why the latter off course ;)
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eufo
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by eufo » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:26 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
eufo wrote:Before I answer this, it becomes a bit confusing for me to break down my gains since I'm constantly throwing money into my accounts.

My finance software offers up ROI and IRR for possible metrics. For this year, ROI is around 7% while IRR is around 13%. Even after reading up on these, I'm not following which is actually a better measurement of performance.

Any opinions out there?
Why the latter off course ;)
Obviously that's what I WANT to hear! Lol!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
Libertarian666
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:16 am

Approximate composition of my portfolio:

53% gold
35% Swiss francs
10% cash

2017 return: just about 10%.
Kbg
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Kbg » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:32 am

My returns YTD are posted in the Variable Portfolio 20% returns thread.
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MWKXJ
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by MWKXJ » Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:15 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:Approximate composition of my portfolio:

53% gold
35% Swiss francs
10% cash

2017 return: just about 10%.
I'm curious about the portfolio, Tech: How are you buying your Swiss francs? ETF? How long have you kept this portfolio? Is this a recent thing?

Sorry, haven't been keeping up here much in 2017. I can say I've paid off the mortgage early courtesy of bitcoin. Great feeling.
Don
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Don » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:14 pm

Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

That's an excellent return!
Libertarian666
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:55 pm

MWKXJ wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:Approximate composition of my portfolio:

53% gold
35% Swiss francs
10% cash

2017 return: just about 10%.
I'm curious about the portfolio, Tech: How are you buying your Swiss francs? ETF? How long have you kept this portfolio? Is this a recent thing?

Sorry, haven't been keeping up here much in 2017. I can say I've paid off the mortgage early courtesy of bitcoin. Great feeling.
I'm also a member of the 2017 mortgage-free club, and yes, it is a great feeling!

The Swiss francs are in Swiss annuities, which unfortunately are no longer available to non-Swiss persons, especially US persons, thanks to the never-to-be-sufficiently-damned FATCA. >:(

One is a gift from my mother and the other I bought in 2007.

They are paying somewhere around 2%, which is pretty good for Swiss francs. However I'm going to surrender them, due to the aforementioned FATCA monstrosity, which has made it impossible for me to make the changes I was planning to make to suit my situation.
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sophie
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by sophie » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:59 pm

12.6% return YTD, with my PP currently at:

28.5% cash
25.5% stocks
23.6% gold
22.4% bonds

Not at all shabby! I think my extra little bit of return came from a higher stock allocation with some help from I Bonds and autorolled T bills. I was close to 30% stocks, but then I "donated" some fund shares earlier in the month to a Fidelity DAF. When I get my tax refund I'll put it right back into the PP.
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drumminj
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by drumminj » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:09 pm

Don wrote:Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

That's an excellent return!
Those #s are my ending allocation, not return ;)
Mr Vacuum
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Mr Vacuum » Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 am

Surprisingly my Google Finance paper portfolio is still working, despite the shutdown announced for mid November. Here is the pure 4x25 starting January 1, 2016, dividends not reinvested, showing a 10.3% return. The stocks portion is IYY. Ignore the overall return column, as I believe it is price gains only and does not include dividends.

Image

Image
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dualstow
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by dualstow » Sat Dec 30, 2017 4:40 pm

not bad, not bad at all!
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Dieter
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Dieter » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:08 pm

My GBish return for 2017 is 12.8%.

Started year at about 35% Stock

Rough current allocation:

Stock: 39% (about 1/3 each TSM, SCV, International Explorer)
Gold: 24%
"Bond" 37% (about 1/3 each LTT, ITT, STB)
farjean2
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by farjean2 » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:28 pm

I vote NFC (No ******* clue).
Don
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Don » Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:16 pm

drumminj wrote:
Don wrote:Gold: 22%
Stock: 27.5%
Cash/STT: 25.4%
LTT: 25%

That's an excellent return!
Those #s are my ending allocation, not return ;)
I know. ;D
flyingpylon
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:25 pm

2017 was a good year, the PP portion of my portfolio ended up at +10.64% which seems to be in line with others.

I started in 2012 and I’d have to say overall performance has been within expectations which is great and continues to build confidence in the strategy.

I’m currently at about:
30% Stocks
20% Bonds
30% Cash
20% Gold

As I’m still in the accumulation phase, I tend to let cash build up for a while. I’ll probably redistribute some cash (as opposed to doing a full rebalance) in the next few months. I’m pondering a gradual shift to something more Golden Butterfly-ish, so perhaps that would be the time to start but we’ll see.
farjean2
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by farjean2 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:41 pm

Ended up with these totals after being in balance with the Golden Butterfly at the beginning of the year.

Image

I calculated a ROI of 8.9% best I can figure and I'm pretty happy with this being my first full year of retirement and the start of my retirement "sequence of returns". If I get that every year I will have no worries at all. Of course, I won't get that every year. I resolved to stop being such a pessimist this year but I already know I'm going to fail.

For now I decided not to do any rebalancing but just let it ride even though just selling down the large blend and moving into cash would get me reasonably back in balance at 20% of each asset. I would have to do that in my IRA which is already geared more towards safe vs growth assets so I'm not so inclined to do it right now. I have one more year before I have to start taking RMD's from it and wouldn't mind some more growth (well, maybe I will at tax time). Fortunately, I'm in a position that I don't foresee having to touch any of that portfolio for living expenses for a good many years to come unless my wife accepts my suggestion to retire.
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I Shrugged
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:40 pm

12.2%

I am overweight stocks and underweight gold.
Stocks are split between SP500 and Intl.
Using short term bond funds instead of cash.
I haven't checked lately but they should all still be within the 15-35% bands.
Thomas Hoog
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by Thomas Hoog » Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:15 am

Only 2,1 % due to the depreciation of the dollar against the Euro.
tarentola
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Re: 2017 PP Return Poll

Post by tarentola » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:13 am

For my euro PP: + 1.4% in 2017. A vanilla Euro PP of four ETFs would have gained about 1.2% in 2017:
CEU (MSCI Europe) +10.5%
MTH (25y+ bonds) -0.9%
GBS (gold) -1.3%
C13 (1-3y bonds) -0.3%

EUR/USD +15% in 2017and rising

(Figures from the French site boursorama.com)
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