mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:42 pm

Those returns are only the insight portfolios...no trading in those numbers

The trading I only know dollars I made or lost .

Last year Gld ,sgol and Iau brought in about 80k ...Tlt 32,200 .I cant tell you by percentage since different amounts came and went sometimes the same day ...all I care about is dollars

Gold was my biggest gainer , 2nd was my junk bond fund up 39000. Third was Tlt.

Realized gains were 216k overall for 2020 and unrealized about 110k ....I don’t do percentages because not only does the trading money spend different amounts of time but I am drawing out six figures to live to .

All I care about is what is left as a balance each year over year .portfolio performance is tracked by fidelity insight so I don’t have to
Last edited by mathjak107 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:15 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:34 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:07 pm
2020 Income model 12% , growth model 34% .I used a mix of the two

2019 was income model 13% growth model 30%
Ok, so lazy old me, in the PP, got a hair over 20% in 2020.

If you use a mix, I'll say 50/50 but you can correct, you got 23%.

2019 I got 18.66%, you got 19.5%.

I don't know if you roll in your TLT gains/losses in those numbers, but the PP for all its apparent warts, seems to have held up pretty well for the past two years.

But remember this is my retirement mix which I toned down greatly ...until I got ready for retirement I was only in the growth mix which has averaged 12% for 37 years ....that includes the lost decade for stocks too
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:19 pm

Hey, I'm not saying you did things wrong -- I'm the one who did it wrong in a million ways for 25 years.

But getting close to 54, and certainly not wanting to work until 65, at least as an engineer, I cannot afford, mentally, being into stocks more than my current 30%. I have nearly half a lifetime of getting stressed by the market, whereas now I have not been for 7 years. Can't change that around at this stage here, mentally. Won't happen.

I kick myself quite often about that 25 years. Biggest single regret I will die with. I should have put that money into a black box, never look at stock fund, and I would be working at my volunteer job right now....!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:40 pm

I think I was about 57 or so when I cut back the equities..we thought we would retire earlier then I did since we bought a house in the poconos ..but once we decided we really couldn’t see retiring there , there was no reason I couldn’t work longer since I enjoyed what I did
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:57 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:19 pm
Hey, I'm not saying you did things wrong -- I'm the one who did it wrong in a million ways for 25 years.

But getting close to 54, and certainly not wanting to work until 65, at least as an engineer, I cannot afford, mentally, being into stocks more than my current 30%. I have nearly half a lifetime of getting stressed by the market, whereas now I have not been for 7 years. Can't change that around at this stage here, mentally. Won't happen.

I kick myself quite often about that 25 years. Biggest single regret I will die with. I should have put that money into a black box, never look at stock fund, and I would be working at my volunteer job right now....!
I started with fidelity insight in 1987 .

A hypothetical 100k back then grew to 4.56 million in the growth portfolio...

their sector portfolio has been amazing .

That started in 1988 . The same 100k is 6.67 million .


The income model started in 1991 .. 100k is just at 500k

Growth and income model started in 1993 and that is 1.1 million

The growth model beat a s&p 500 fund or total market fund by about 500k . The sector model really blew it away
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:07 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:19 am
The portfolio has been reduced to 75% stocks/25% cash on down days as GLD and TLT search for a bottom.
Stocks go up, we see some life.
Stocks go down, GLD and TLT follow.
Do others recognize this pattern as well or am I full of shit?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:10 pm

Lately yes we have had all three move together many times ....those days carry some weight too , it is like having a real heavy equity position in those days
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:19 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:57 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:19 pm
Hey, I'm not saying you did things wrong -- I'm the one who did it wrong in a million ways for 25 years.

But getting close to 54, and certainly not wanting to work until 65, at least as an engineer, I cannot afford, mentally, being into stocks more than my current 30%. I have nearly half a lifetime of getting stressed by the market, whereas now I have not been for 7 years. Can't change that around at this stage here, mentally. Won't happen.

I kick myself quite often about that 25 years. Biggest single regret I will die with. I should have put that money into a black box, never look at stock fund, and I would be working at my volunteer job right now....!
I started with fidelity insight in 1987 .

A hypothetical 100k back then grew to 4.56 million in the growth portfolio...

their sector portfolio has been amazing .

That started in 1988 . The same 100k is 6.67 million .


The income model started in 1991 .. 100k is just at 500k

Growth and income model started in 1993 and that is 1.1 million

The growth model beat a s&p 500 fund or total market fund by about 500k . The sector model really blew it away
I ran the pp in portfolio visualizer from 1987 with the same 100k

1.1 million ..

If I run it from 1993 to match the growth and income model the pp we get 728k .

So over the decades there was a price to pay for that perceived safety .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:19 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:57 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:19 pm
Hey, I'm not saying you did things wrong -- I'm the one who did it wrong in a million ways for 25 years.

But getting close to 54, and certainly not wanting to work until 65, at least as an engineer, I cannot afford, mentally, being into stocks more than my current 30%. I have nearly half a lifetime of getting stressed by the market, whereas now I have not been for 7 years. Can't change that around at this stage here, mentally. Won't happen.

I kick myself quite often about that 25 years. Biggest single regret I will die with. I should have put that money into a black box, never look at stock fund, and I would be working at my volunteer job right now....!
I started with fidelity insight in 1987 .

A hypothetical 100k back then grew to 4.56 million in the growth portfolio...

their sector portfolio has been amazing .

That started in 1988 . The same 100k is 6.67 million .


The income model started in 1991 .. 100k is just at 500k

Growth and income model started in 1993 and that is 1.1 million

The growth model beat a s&p 500 fund or total market fund by about 500k . The sector model really blew it away
I ran the pp in portfolio visualizer from 1987 with the same 100k

1.1 million ..

If I run it from 1993 to match the growth and income model , for the pp we get 728k . That is almost 400k less

So over the decades there was a price to pay for that perceived safety .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:51 pm

It's not perceived, is it? Did you guys read Tyler's latest? https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/03/02/ ... he-matrix/

I would gladly have given up the extra gains if it allowed me to make it through periods like dot com bust and the financial crisis without stress and gyrations in my portfolio.

Here's a 100% stock holding drawdown chart:

Image

Here's a PP drawdown chart

Image
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:01 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:51 pm
It's not perceived, is it? Did you guys read Tyler's latest? https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/03/02/ ... he-matrix/

I would gladly have given up the extra gains if it allowed me to make it through periods like dot com bust and the financial crisis without stress and gyrations in my portfolio.

Here's a 100% stock holding drawdown chart:

Image

Here's a PP drawdown chart

Image
For many with no pucker factor it may have been worth the extra 1% or so to have someone else handling their money over those decades and keep them away ...I mean we would be talking a difference of 3 million over my time frame.

Many investors shoot themselves in the foot and are their Own worst financial enemy by trying to do something they really have no stomach for and it costs them in the end big

Looking at what was may have little reflection on what will be ,especially with a portfolio that spent 40 years in a falling rate trend and is overly rate sensitive by design..we are likely forging a new trail and new data
Last edited by mathjak107 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:21 pm

mj, I recall over the years here that you ebb and flow on the pp and generally have been negative on it.

Yet you still dabble in it and complain when it doesn't go your way, and post clips of your gains when your trading does work out.

Just like you discount the drawdown graphs, I have to discount the 3 million difference because I would not have made it through. I would have puckered up real early.

And in the end, I have to ask again, right here, right now, why are you taking the abuse? On the one hand you talk about taking each day individually. And for pretty much day after day for a while here TLT and gold have dropped. Why are you still holding?

You remind me of me in many single stock investments. Buy. Watch it drop immediately. Average down. Watch it drop more. Wait a period of time. Gets back to breakeven. Get out and say Thank God. Then watches it continue higher and beat myself up over it.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:23 pm

I am going to give it a fair chance , as I committed to it but from what I am seeing I don’t think this is going to be able to dig its way back out of the hole it is digging very easily ...

The gains it needs to recuperate on Gld and tlt from where they were is getting higher and higher ....those poor soles that bought near the top may take years to get whole.

Those who had nice balances in august may have similar long waits to see them again as Tlt and Gld keep sucking away the gains.

So yeah at this point I will just let it run and I hope it proves to not be a mistake because right now the pp is high up on my ulcer index as for months all it does is fall and fall big dollars a day.

The models I left have had nice gains just like the pp maybe even better but they are not taking the beating the pp is and in fact they are still going up .


The pp has to convince me it still works if it wants me to accept it as the low ulcer index champion going forward ..I guess that says it best ..I have no interest looking in the rear view mirror ..SHOW ME YOU CAN NAVAGATE THE ROAD IN FRONT OF US BABY
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:47 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:07 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:19 am
The portfolio has been reduced to 75% stocks/25% cash on down days as GLD and TLT search for a bottom.
Stocks go up, we see some life.
Stocks go down, GLD and TLT follow.
Do others recognize this pattern as well or am I full of shit?
Already in my bed and cannot really check, but that reminds me (please check as I can be wrong) about '81 -stocks, bond and gold fell altogether.. Think this was the worst ever year for HBPP. Back then rates were quite high sthg lik 14-16% or alike.. but even higher rates were expected haha..
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:23 pm
The gains it needs to recuperate on Gld and tlt from where they were is getting higher and higher ....those poor soles that bought near the top may take years to get whole.

Those who had nice balances in august may have similar long waits to see them again as Tlt and Gld keep sucking away the gains.
So what I would say to this is you have 100% absolute faith that stocks will always, always recover, right? Drops from peaks in gold and TLT are nowhere near, for example, the drop last March in the market, as shown below. 35% down in a little over a month.

Yet you had full confidence that would be short lived, while you are already projecting out the TLT and gold losses may take YEARS to recover?

That is a really strong bias toward stocks, and has worked out for you, for sure. But I have no intention of being as biased toward one asset or another, which is why I decided on the pp.

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:34 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:23 pm
The gains it needs to recuperate on Gld and tlt from where they were is getting higher and higher ....those poor soles that bought near the top may take years to get whole.

Those who had nice balances in august may have similar long waits to see them again as Tlt and Gld keep sucking away the gains.
So what I would say to this is you have 100% absolute faith that stocks will always, always recover, right? Drops from peaks in gold and TLT are nowhere near, for example, the drop last March in the market, as shown below. 35% down in a little over a month.

Yet you had full confidence that would be short lived, while you are already projecting out the TLT and gold losses may take YEARS to recover?

That is a really strong bias toward stocks, and has worked out for you, for sure. But I have no intention of being as biased toward one asset or another, which is why I decided on the pp.

Image
Well I do think stocks will always recover , I just don’t know when . But what I am less certain of is that if stocks do sell off because of high rates that the traditional flight to safety assets will work and not sell off too
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 03, 2021 5:36 pm

If you look at the drawdown % and length of time to recover for a standard PP being much more shallow and shorter than, say, a 100% stock allocation, history at least seems to show that the differing assets are helping to shore up the pp during bad times.

I know you can argue this time it's different, rates are so low they can only go up, etc.

But I can only present historical info, not future info.... ;)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:19 pm

Time will tell . Like I say , each day the balance carries over , effectively each day we are buying in and our invested dollars compound up or down and March on .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:03 am

vincent_c wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:48 pm
Hey MJ,

If you weren't sitting on losses on GLD and TLT would you be viewing them differently at this time? Perhaps still trading in and out?



Or do you think you would have made the same decision moving back into the PP every day since you made that choice.
If I wasn’t down around 150k for making the swap from my other conservative model then maybe I would view things in a better light .

It isn’t a case of okay we had a good year last year and the year before so now we have to take our lumps ..my other model was up more than the pp over most years , yet it is still up ytd and the pp is sucking wind. It is offering none of the protective benefits I made the swap for ..in fact just the opposite as the losses grow deeper daily .

It is the real time numbers that determine whether it is a good choice or a bad choice not some charts from decades ago .

Until the day comes it demonstrates to me the reason I changed over it is just a poor choice...in fact from an ulcer standpoint it runs higher right now than a 100% equity S&p fund.

Going forward the proof will be in the pudding not what we think from the past.

Pp down almost 5% ytd ....

The conservative income model I was in with 25% equities up 1.47% , growth model up 3.64%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:59 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:03 am
Pp down almost 5% ytd ....
Mine is slightly more, well it depends on the exact implementation. YTD I have 'returned' almost half of the PP gains from 2020. Do not see a light in the tunnel, to be honest, so it well might be that cash is king in 2021. Not that I care too much, as long as this is (yet) not my source of income... Using PP just for wealth preservation, but this year PP behaves irresponsibly with my money >:D
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:38 am

Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:59 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:03 am
Pp down almost 5% ytd ....
Mine is slightly more, well it depends on the exact implementation. YTD I have 'returned' almost half of the PP gains from 2020. Do not see a light in the tunnel, to be honest, so it well might be that cash is king in 2021. Not that I care too much, as long as this is (yet) not my source of income... Using PP just for wealth preservation, but this year PP behaves irresponsibly with my money >:D
Don't know if you happen to be European...but either way, does anyone have data on European PP performance? I'm curious in light of the fact that unlike the US, their equity markets have been basically flat.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:13 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 6:38 am
Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:59 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:03 am
Pp down almost 5% ytd ....
Mine is slightly more, well it depends on the exact implementation. YTD I have 'returned' almost half of the PP gains from 2020. Do not see a light in the tunnel, to be honest, so it well might be that cash is king in 2021. Not that I care too much, as long as this is (yet) not my source of income... Using PP just for wealth preservation, but this year PP behaves irresponsibly with my money >:D
Don't know if you happen to European...but either way, does anyone have data on European PP performance? I'm curious in light of the fact that unlike the US, their equity markets have been basically flat.
I am European, indeed, but European stocks I have only in my VP. PP I have variants of in different accounts, but all following only US market. I have said in the past and will repeat myself again - I do not believe non US-PP as methodology, its just the way I see things...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:13 am

My pp variant is down 3.02% for the year.

Not that I'm looking every day...!

I ran across Ken Fisher's The Only Three Questions that Still Count book, and he's got some gems in there, especially the fact that investors usually perceive losses much more negatively than they perceive gains positively.

I tell ya, that is damn true. While I was happy about the 20% gain last year, I am totally more pissed about 3% down right now than I ever was happy about 20% up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:31 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:13 am

I ran across Ken Fisher's The Only Three Questions that Still Count book, and he's got some gems in there, especially the fact that investors usually perceive losses much more negatively than they perceive gains positively.
Yes, this is one of the mantras they keep repeating in all those books.. different brain areas => different 'handling' of money gain/loss .. even some authors claim they know the ratio of how we feel following a loss vs how we feel after some gains.. forgot it, as it sound a sort of useless.

PS. I just want my money back from Mr. PP, hahaha.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:29 am

Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:31 am
PS. I just want my money back from Mr. PP, hahaha.
I can't remember- are you rebalancing into bonds the traditional way or doing the death by a thousand cuts, i.e. daytrading the pp assets, averaging in every 30 minutes.
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