mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:35 am

The interesting and "by now we should know and anticipate this," thing is that TLT and gold both always overcorrect both ways.

I mean, right now it seems like they have been going down non-stop, and we are waiting for a bounce, which we got one on Friday, but then basically continued on their merry way down.

I think that's one reason why the rebalancing bands work well because these assets always go lower (or higher) than your mind would ever think they would.

At this point I am so beaten down I am convinced we are going to see $1050 gold again... ;)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:47 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:35 am
The interesting and "by now we should know and anticipate this," thing is that TLT and gold both always overcorrect both ways.

I mean, right now it seems like they have been going down non-stop, and we are waiting for a bounce, which we got one on Friday, but then basically continued on their merry way down.

I think that's one reason why the rebalancing bands work well because these assets always go lower (or higher) than your mind would ever think they would.

At this point I am so beaten down I am convinced we are going to see $1050 gold again... ;)
Yeah, my slow averaging back into bonds has been painful. I might buy a bit more on this latest jump but so far that isn't working out for me. I console myself with the fact that I went underweight after the covid spike...but nonetheless, losses hurt. So far my prognostication that cash will win for '21 seems to be coming true. Wish I had followed through on that with more conviction.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:50 am

But, in general...for me, the more disgust I have with the idea of purchasing any particular asset the more handsomely it tends to reward me. Everytime I'm convinced that an asset is doomed, that should be a strong signal for me to buy. In some ways, I wish I could turn all of this over to an algorithm because I often have trouble overcoming my hesitance.

Also, staring at your portfolio everyday is a deeply unhealthy obsession that certainly has negative mental consequences. At the end of the day it really doesn't matter that much. Happiness isn't directly tied to your daily balance and no one on here seems to be in dire straits...a few percentage points up or down really is inconsequential to our lives.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:48 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:29 am
Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:31 am
PS. I just want my money back from Mr. PP, hahaha.
I can't remember- are you rebalancing into bonds the traditional way or doing the death by a thousand cuts, i.e. daytrading the pp assets, averaging in every 30 minutes.
I have explained it in the "Southwest?" thread: a)I am not day trading PP assets, b)the money flow is always VP->PP, c)I am relying on PP for wealth preservation and not as income generator and last but not least d)I am pretty much fine with those temporary PP losses, just .. yeah... I hate to lose and I am not a good student in the school of losers. Maybe I have to push myself a bit harder to learn how to take losses really easy :) Also I concur with what has been discussed here million times - not looking at daily PP gyrations really makes it easier to swallow... just now I have more time to do trading in my VP, so I can see the PP as well... :)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:50 am
Everytime I'm convinced that an asset is doomed, that should be a strong signal for me to buy.
Yes. I went back a few years ago and analyzed 20 years of trades. If I did the exact opposite of what I did, I would have come out significantly better on the individual stock and option trading I did.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm

Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm
Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
Why do I get the feeling that PP is getting ready to spring into action here? These moves in 30s and GLD feel overdone
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:16 pm

Ok, dipping my toe again into the piranha tank....watch out below!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:20 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:50 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:03 am

If I wasn’t down around 150k for making the swap from my other conservative model then maybe I would view things in a better light .
MJ,

You know I was leading to this, but how do you reconcile your perspective of every day making a new decision with your allocation vs letting past performance affect your future decisions of how to allocate?

It would seem to me that if you were honest to yourself that you would be able to bite the bullet and short LTTs
I have not altered from my core investments since 1987 ....the pp was a thought to protect the gains over decades of time I had .

So I don’t know why you think am changing allocations daily ...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm
Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
Exactly my point about the pp .....when the flight to safety assets show their metal I may feel better about the pp but so far no cigar
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:28 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:22 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm
Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
Exactly my point about the pp .....when the flight to safety assets show their metal I may feel better about the pp but so far no cigar
The only safety is in cash right now.(guess it's not trash after all)...everything is down even crypto is taking it on the chin
Last edited by doodle on Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:28 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:22 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm
Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
Exactly my point about the pp .....when the flight to safety assets show their metal I may feel better about the pp but so far no cigar
It's mettle but since it's the pp metal kind of works here. :D
Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:48 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:29 am
Vil wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:31 am
PS. I just want my money back from Mr. PP, hahaha.
I can't remember- are you rebalancing into bonds the traditional way or doing the death by a thousand cuts, i.e. daytrading the pp assets, averaging in every 30 minutes.
I have explained it in the "Southwest?" thread: a)I am not day trading PP assets, b)the money flow is always VP->PP, c)I am relying on PP for wealth preservation and not as income generator and last but not least d)I am pretty much fine with those temporary PP losses, just .. yeah... I hate to lose and I am not a good student in the school of losers. Maybe I have to push myself a bit harder to learn how to take losses really easy :) Also I concur with what has been discussed here million times - not looking at daily PP gyrations really makes it easier to swallow... just now I have more time to do trading in my VP, so I can see the PP as well... :)
Ah yes, thank you.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:33 pm

I’ll say it again at the risk of repeating myself ad nauseum.
Stocks down, gold and TLT down.
Stocks up, gold and TLT may catch a bid.

PP reduced to rubble...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:42 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:33 pm
Stocks down, gold and TLT down.
Come on, don't be so negative. VIX is rising ! ;D
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:47 pm

This thread is a fascinating picture into human nature. Here all of us on a PERMANENT portfolio thread picking apart how we are jumping in and out of things to try to outsmart the market. Harry Browne would find this very entertaining I think. It's almost worthy of a monty python skit. Lol
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Vil » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:51 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:48 pm
This is the variable portfolio section of the forum ...
... combined with general complains about turmoil times in PP
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:52 pm

It's also in these moments of uncertainty that one realizes the importance of religion, faith, and belief instead of being portfolio atheists like all of us. Like most Christians who fear death, it's evident we don't really believe. Imagine how calming it must be to have that faith...it's almost worth the losses and lower returns. After all, isn't peace of mind a valuable asset?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:53 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:37 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:20 pm
So I don’t know why you think am changing allocations daily ...

Isn't your perspective that for every day you are invested in an asset you make a new decision about allocating to that asset?
I never said that ..you are confused.

I said every day we invest we are COMMITTING OUR MONEY TO THOSE ASSETS we are in .....people tell others they wouldn’t buy this or that with new money yet they don’t realize every day we stay invested we are actually buying in at today’s prices ....

Whether you are down 50k from market action with new money or old money you are down the same 50k .

No where does that say you change assets daily
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:54 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:52 pm
It's also in these moments of uncertainty that one realizes the importance of religion, faith, and belief instead of being portfolio atheists like all of us. Like most Christians who fear death, it's evident we don't really believe. Imagine how calming it must be to have that faith...it's almost worth the losses and lower returns. After all, isn't peace of mind a valuable asset?
We can keep religion out of this ..some of us don’t give a hoot about it and religion has no importance to them nor is everyone Christian
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:57 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:48 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:47 pm
Harry Browne would find this very entertaining I think
This is the variable portfolio section of the forum so I think Harry would be okay with that.
Yes, except the topic of discussion presently pertains to jettisoning the entire portfolio.

This site is funny...my poll a while back indicated that most participants here do not follow a permanent portfolio at all..which is interesting.

To me half the value of a portfolio is the simplicity that it brings to your life. It makes things automatic....what I am getting from this discussion (me included) is that people are horrible at just sticking with and following a plan.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:58 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:28 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:22 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm
Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
Exactly my point about the pp .....when the flight to safety assets show their metal I may feel better about the pp but so far no cigar
The only safety is in cash right now.(guess it's not trash after all)...everything is down even crypto is taking it on the chin
What we've also (usually) sometimes learned is that the buffering of other assets is not an immediate, daily, stocks down 4%, TLT up 4% scenario most times. There is a delay which is tough to overcome. Go look at stock drops in 2008 and 2020 and how gold and TLT reacted. They did, but it wasn't immediate.

From the 2020 drop:

Image
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:00 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:54 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:52 pm
It's also in these moments of uncertainty that one realizes the importance of religion, faith, and belief instead of being portfolio atheists like all of us. Like most Christians who fear death, it's evident we don't really believe. Imagine how calming it must be to have that faith...it's almost worth the losses and lower returns. After all, isn't peace of mind a valuable asset?
We can keep religion out of this ..some of us don’t give a hoot about it and religion has no importance to them nor is everyone Christian
This isn't about religion, it's about faith. Obviously something all of us are lacking at this moment. I think the analogy is very valid.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:01 pm

We all know that portfolios like the pp have no seesaw effect .

The point is until the portfolio does something except all fall together it offers no protective benefits to speak of ...

It can do the same damage high equity levels can do in a downturn when they all fall ....

So far what has been offering some shelter is actually my old portfolio where the bond side was very very short non interest rate sensitive bonds and no gold.

So until the pp proves it still works in this environment jury is out in my opinion
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:06 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:58 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:28 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:22 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 12:59 pm
Getting crushed all over today.... :-[
Exactly my point about the pp .....when the flight to safety assets show their metal I may feel better about the pp but so far no cigar
The only safety is in cash right now.(guess it's not trash after all)...everything is down even crypto is taking it on the chin
What we've also (usually) sometimes learned is that the buffering of other assets is not an immediate, daily, stocks down 4%, TLT up 4% scenario most times. There is a delay which is tough to overcome. Go look at stock drops in 2008 and 2020 and how gold and TLT reacted. They did, but it wasn't immediate.

From the 2020 drop:

Image
Yes, but we still don't believe....even with scores of historical charts. We are eternal skeptics. That has advantages...but also can be very unsettling in tumultuous times. In many ways there are advantages to blind faith that is entered into after careful consideration. At some point you just have to resolve to let go. To take off what MJ says...the quality of your life is the sum of the return of your days. What's the cost of fretting all the time about things we all have realized we cannot predict?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:09 pm

I don’t fret about the things I can’t control ...but there are things in my control and I always have the ability to act on them .I may just choose not to
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