mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:46 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:39 am
I’m not overly concerned with losing out on gains, but rather more protective of downside losses.
that we can never be sure of . i thought i was doing just that switching from my regular portfolio to the pp ...the pp gave me losses and the regular portfolio keeps moving ahead
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:18 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:46 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:39 am
I’m not overly concerned with losing out on gains, but rather more protective of downside losses.
that we can never be sure of . i thought i was doing just that switching from my regular portfolio to the pp ...the pp gave me losses and the regular portfolio keeps moving ahead
I’m ok taking losses in stocks, losses in what I consider “protective assets” like Gold and LTT’s is more difficult to swallow.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:43 pm

Stocks so far have a history of recovery,sometimes short and some times longer ...but in the modern investing world ,today we have no idea what to expect from interest rates at all ...it took us 40 years to get to this point ..are we in for decades of reversal ?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:14 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:18 am
I’m ok taking losses in stocks, losses in what I consider “protective assets” like Gold and LTT’s is more difficult to swallow.
It's really frustrating when they don't zig enough for stocks' downward zag. But, they really aren't protective assets in the sense above. Or rather, they aren't protected assets. They can and do go down, a lot, as you know. Nothing is immune. It's all about the package, is it not?

ARKK was hit pretty hard this week.
traveling...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 27, 2021 2:35 am

Well that is the problem many times ..,when three major asset groups fall like that one may just have well Been 70-80% equities for the same level of volatility and loss or gain potential.

So far anyone starting the pp off since last august is losing money while more conventional portfolios have been gaining
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 27, 2021 6:58 am

Looks like this is another anything-can-happen year. Is the economy on track to recover or is it all an illusion?
I’m still hopeful for stocks, myself.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:00 am

So far it looks like the economy is growing.

The problem is the stock market priced this recovery in already for the most part ..all we are really seeing is some spikes and falls from high frequency trading....we have rising bond rates killing gold and long term treasuries...the lack of rising rates are killing short term t bills with zero or negative real returns and stocks seemed to have already done most of what they were going to do .

Little looks good for the pp..this is one of those times having less interest rate sensitivity in bonds and gold can make all the difference to a positive year or not.

All I am seeing is the models I left going up weekly while I slide deeper down or still hovering about the same in losses of about 100k
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:14 am

Let’s hope this will turnaround today as PP is getting clobbered. Not much green on the screen.

I’ve been saying this for weeks now...
Stocks down, gold and LTT down
Stocks up, gold and LTT’s may catch a bid.

I do recall 1 day when stocks were down and both gold and LTT’s up.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:55 pm

What is unsettling is the fact that if you look at Tyler’s insight on recession portfolios and look at the worst months he posted , the pp is down as much as it was in 2008 and 1974 WITH STOCKS AT THEIR HIGHS today ...it isn’t like equities plunged 40-50% and now we have a huge recovery To lift things back .

Nope , equities did the bulk of their thing already and are at record highs and the pp is down as much as in the worst recessions ..
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:25 pm

She’s a beaut ain’t she?
2/3 assets down 1%+
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:29 pm

Not a good time for it that is for sure ...at least in the past stocks were beaten up bad when the pp was down .

But now stocks are already at a new high so the primary driver of gains has one hand tied behind its back and the pp is down around its worst recession lows
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:56 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:29 pm
and the pp is down around its worst recession lows
??? What timeframe???
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:02 pm

Take a look at Tyler’s chart in the recession proof portfolio insight article ....he found the worst month was 1974 2008 and March of the pandemic.

In 2008 when stocks were at their lows he shows pp down 5% .stocks gave us amazing lift .

We have the pp down 5% or more now with stocks at record highs

Follow my logic and why I say this is unsettling...?


The usual lead horse is already tired
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:22 pm

Well, mj, I know you don't believe it, and I'd have to say I'm not convinced either, but....

maybe it is time for that lead horse to change for a spell.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:24 pm

Continuing the analogy, I expect the entire field to pull back when the lead horse falters.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:39 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:22 pm
Well, mj, I know you don't believe it, and I'd have to say I'm not convinced either, but....

maybe it is time for that lead horse to change for a spell.
Even if stocks fall it doesn’t mean the economic outcomes are right for Tlt or gld .

Stocks tanking from rate and inflation fears does not mean gold and tlt don’t plunge too.there is no see saw effect

To many options today including Bitcoin , inverse funds , and high speed trading and shorting than the old days when stocks fell
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:48 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:39 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:22 pm
Well, mj, I know you don't believe it, and I'd have to say I'm not convinced either, but....

maybe it is time for that lead horse to change for a spell.
Even if stocks fall it doesn’t mean the economic outcomes are right for Tlt or gld .

Stocks tanking from rate and inflation fears does not mean gold and tlt don’t plunge too.there is no see saw effect

To many options today including Bitcoin , inverse funds , and high speed trading and shorting than the old days when stocks fell
Absolutely, and cash might end up winning 2021. Who knows...none of these market moves even seem connected to real economy anymore. Look at emerging markets that posted huge gdp growth numbers over last decade and have remained essentially flat.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:53 pm

Typically it is stocks that tank so regular portfolios are all down generally ...some just may be down more and others less but pretty much just pick one and odds are it’s down .

But what you have now is stocks are not tanking and most if not all regular portfolios are up for 2021 and not to shabbily either .

But here I am choosing the pp at a bad time and I am so far below the portfolio I left . All because I wanted to have more protection for those accumulated gains I had . Ha ha ha . I was better off in the old model ,little did I know , it had better protection by being better insulated from rates

Well here I am losing those gains in the pp while the model I left is still going higher and higher ....that is. A tough pill to swallow
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:59 pm

It's hard to take a contrarian stance..... Stock bull markets especially late stage are brutally hard to resist. My sentiments and emotions are indicator that this must be getting towards finale. Who knows though.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:03 pm

I have hopes, some how the two weights Gld and tlt will get a day in the sun ....there is just no telling when ....our portfolios can be down so much it may reach a point it is hard to come back .....stocks have characteristics that gold does not ...gold cycles and then rolls back sometimes for many many years doing nothing ....rates can run decades in a cycle.

I don’t care what anyone compares now to , we have never seen times like now with markets , trading and alternatives like we do .

Even the speed markets react and news spreads and is acted on is totally different .

This is all uncharted with nothing comparable as far as I go
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:17 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:03 pm
I have hopes, some how the two weights Gld and tlt will get a day in the sun ....there is just no telling when ....our portfolios can be down so much it may reach a point it is hard to come back .....stocks have characteristics that gold does not ...gold cycles and then rolls back sometimes for many many years doing nothing ....rates can run decades in a cycle.

I don’t care what anyone compares now to , we have never seen times like now with markets , trading and alternatives like we do .

Even the speed markets react and news spreads and is acted on is totally different .

This is all uncharted with nothing comparable as far as I go
Yet despite that novelty the economy still must find itself in one of the four states covered in PP. It is possible that we see a scenario where cash is the winning asset. This is the Achilles heel of portfolio. Who knows what the next catalyst will be to get things moving around again. I do know this, there is a lot of bright rosy optimism baked into current stock prices. Unless we see further multiple expansion...(doubtful with rates coming back), stocks are not going to see another decade like the last.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vincent_c » Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:21 pm

doodle wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:17 pm
It is possible that we see a scenario where cash is the winning asset. This is the Achilles heel of portfolio.
I've been trying to better understand cash so since you mentioned it, what is cash exactly?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:07 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:21 pm
doodle wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:17 pm
It is possible that we see a scenario where cash is the winning asset. This is the Achilles heel of portfolio.
I've been trying to better understand cash so since you mentioned it, what is cash exactly?
I'm not sure what you mean....short term government debt for purpose of this portfolio. Is that somehow more complicated?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Don » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:42 pm

I see stocks as the overwhelming winning asset up ahead. Bogleheads must be laughing at us.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vincent_c » Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:16 pm

doodle wrote:
Mon Mar 29, 2021 4:07 pm

I'm not sure what you mean....short term government debt for purpose of this portfolio. Is that somehow more complicated?
So let's say you're referring to T-bills which, if you own it, then you're owning the government's debt like you say. Is that cash for the purpose of the PP or are Federal Reserve notes cash?

What's preferable here, a liability of the US government or a liability of the Federal Reserve? T-bills are usually auctioned at a discount but not Federal Reserve notes which I believe is currency.

Can we say that a portfolio of ITTs has some cash in there if it proxies a barbell of T-bills and LTTs in the long term?

If I take a margin loan and move it to a bank account and withdraw it as Federal Reserve notes have I turned my debt into cash?

So what is cash? Is it an asset that represent's someone else's liability, is it a functional thing, or does it represent liquidity even if it is one's liability?
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