mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:11 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:08 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:53 pm
vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:37 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:20 pm
So I don’t know why you think am changing allocations daily ...

Isn't your perspective that for every day you are invested in an asset you make a new decision about allocating to that asset?
I never said that ..you are confused.

I said every day we invest we are COMMITTING OUR MONEY TO THOSE ASSETS we are in .....people tell others they wouldn’t buy this or that with new money yet they don’t realize every day we stay invested we are actually buying in at today’s prices ....

Whether you are down 50k from market action with new money or old money you are down the same 50k .

No where does that say you change assets daily
I never said that you change assets daily.

I meant exactly what you are saying here, committing your money to that asset. Which is the same as making a decision to keep your allocation to that asset.

If we're on the same page here, how can you reconcile if you weren't sitting on losses that it might change how committed you are to your current TLT position?
The allocation we choose is a totally separate issue ..

When a portfolio no longer meets our goals or responds as it should you always have the option to change it .

But that is not what I am referring to when I say each day we are committing our invested dollars at today’s prices
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:15 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:47 pm
This thread is a fascinating picture into human nature. Here all of us on a PERMANENT portfolio thread picking apart how we are jumping in and out of things to try to outsmart the market. Harry Browne would find this very entertaining I think. It's almost worthy of a monty python skit. Lol
Yeah, all 3 people. ::) O0

I wish I were in all stocks instead of this rotten permanent portfolio. I'm missing a 700 pt drop today.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:16 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:09 pm
I don’t fret about the things I can’t control ...but there are things in my control and I always have the ability to act on them .I may just choose not to
I view the market as something I cannot control or predict. I have invested a lot of time trying to find a way to cope with that reality. I settled on a strategy. Less than a year ago that strategy strongly confirmed that it eventually still works. Why doubt it? And besides, what other option do I have but to jump into some other strategy that violates my initial conclusion that I fundamentally cannot predict the future?

My strategy might not be the best, or winningest...but I e come to terms with that. The last two years were great, this one might be bad...who knows. At the end of the day though peace of mind trump's a few percentage points...for me.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:18 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:15 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:47 pm
This thread is a fascinating picture into human nature. Here all of us on a PERMANENT portfolio thread picking apart how we are jumping in and out of things to try to outsmart the market. Harry Browne would find this very entertaining I think. It's almost worthy of a monty python skit. Lol
Yeah, all 3 people. ::) O0

I wish I were in all stocks instead of this rotten permanent portfolio. I'm missing a 700 pt drop today.
Or you could be riding out a 30 percent drop in tesla. My 3% loss at this point feels pretty good in comparison...gotta look for that silver lining!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:23 pm

Also, (and this works for me...maybe not anyone else) I have to continuously remind myself that I didn't really earn any of that money I made over the last two years. I didn't have to wake up early, or bleed or sweat for any of it....I sort of won it. So really from the standpoint of honesty it was kind of a present to begin with. I don't really feel entitled to those gains....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:24 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:15 pm
I wish I were in all stocks instead of this rotten permanent portfolio. I'm missing a 700 pt drop today.
Or you could be riding out a 30 percent drop in tesla. My 3% loss at this point feels pretty good in comparison...gotta look for that silver lining!
Exactly how I feel. I'm losing more, actually, because I have a stock-heavy vp, but I feel good about the pp. Not because of blind faith, but because I've seen it work for me, and I don't really see a better system to switch to.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:42 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:24 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:18 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:15 pm
I wish I were in all stocks instead of this rotten permanent portfolio. I'm missing a 700 pt drop today.
Or you could be riding out a 30 percent drop in tesla. My 3% loss at this point feels pretty good in comparison...gotta look for that silver lining!
Exactly how I feel. I'm losing more, actually, because I have a stock-heavy vp, but I feel good about the pp. Not because of blind faith, but because I've seen it work for me, and I don't really see a better system to switch to.
Exactly. I've toyed with golden butterfly and will slightly underweight after rebalances...that's as far as I'm willing to deviate.

Im comfortable and familiar with my little PP! ::) Lol
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by vnatale » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:47 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:23 pm

Also, (and this works for me...maybe not anyone else) I have to continuously remind myself that I didn't really earn any of that money I made over the last two years. I didn't have to wake up early, or bleed or sweat for any of it....I sort of won it. So really from the standpoint of honesty it was kind of a present to begin with. I don't really feel entitled to those gains....


I have the opposite reaction. When I lose in investing I compare to how I'd never spend that amount of money on a conscious buying decision. Or, how many hours, weeks, months, years I had to work to earn that amount of money that I just lost.

It's all the same amount of money.

I earned from working $100,000. Put it in Treasury bills where it stays at $100,000.

I had this other $100,000. Invest it. Goes to $150,000. Then to $80,000. I could have converted that $150,000 to also being Treasury bills anywhere from the %150,000 down to the $80,000.

It's the same real money as the $100,000 I earned from working.

It's all my money. It's all under my control how much I end up with (my control insofar as to deciding where to put it).
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:50 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:47 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:23 pm
Also, (and this works for me...maybe not anyone else) I have to continuously remind myself that I didn't really earn any of that money I made over the last two years. I didn't have to wake up early, or bleed or sweat for any of it....I sort of won it. So really from the standpoint of honesty it was kind of a present to begin with. I don't really feel entitled to those gains....
I have the opposite reaction. When I lose in investing I compare to how I'd never spend that amount of money on a conscious buying decision. Or, how many hours, weeks, months, years I had to work to earn that amount of money that I just lost.

It's all the same amount of money.

I earned from working $100,000. Put it in Treasury bills where it stays at $100,000.

I had this other $100,000. Invest it. Goes to $150,000. Then to $80,000. I could have converted that $150,000 to also being Treasury bills anywhere from the %150,000 down to the $80,000.

It's the same real money as the $100,000 I earned from working.

It's all my money. It's all under my control how much I end up with (my control insofar as to deciding where to put it).
Sure, you can look at it that way...of course it's more unsettling when you lose...and since I don't have any control to alter that beyond my strategy, reframing my reality in those terms gives me something else of value...more peace of mind.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:51 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:13 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:01 pm
We all know that portfolios like the pp have no seesaw effect .

The point is until the portfolio does something except all fall together it offers no protective benefits to speak of ...

It can do the same damage high equity levels can do in a downturn when they all fall ....

So far what has been offering some shelter is actually my old portfolio where the bond side was very very short non interest rate sensitive bonds and no gold.

So until the pp proves it still works in this environment jury is out in my opinion
Isn't it part of the PP's design to have 25% allocated to cash for the specific purpose of being the asset that goes up in terms of % of portfolio when all other 3 assets fall?

It seems impossible to me that all assets of the PP can fall together when cash is one of those assets. I've heard it repeated several times now about cash has fallen and I have to admit I'm slightly confused. When you guys are saying cash is falling are you referring to short term rates dropping or inflation?
At zero rates cash is peeing in the ocean when the three heavy weights dive
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:51 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:47 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:23 pm
Also, (and this works for me...maybe not anyone else) I have to continuously remind myself that I didn't really earn any of that money I made over the last two years. I didn't have to wake up early, or bleed or sweat for any of it....I sort of won it. So really from the standpoint of honesty it was kind of a present to begin with. I don't really feel entitled to those gains....
I have the opposite reaction. When I lose in investing I compare to how I'd never spend that amount of money on a conscious buying decision. Or, how many hours, weeks, months, years I had to work to earn that amount of money that I just lost.

It's all the same amount of money.

I earned from working $100,000. Put it in Treasury bills where it stays at $100,000.

I had this other $100,000. Invest it. Goes to $150,000. Then to $80,000. I could have converted that $150,000 to also being Treasury bills anywhere from the %150,000 down to the $80,000.

It's the same real money as the $100,000 I earned from working.

It's all my money. It's all under my control how much I end up with (my control insofar as to deciding where to put it).
It is strange. I am currently down a REALLY nice car $ amount right now. An amount I would never, ever, ever spend on a car. But there it is in front of me in bright red. And if I gain it all back in the next couple weeks, I will not have felt like I just won back the ability to buy a car I never would have bought.

I am going to have to work really hard to spend money in retirement. I am such a cheap ass.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:58 pm

When our portfolios get bigger and bigger the dollars effected become larger and larger and those dollars are very real .

A 7% drop today ,which isn’t much would wipe out a decade of 401k contributions at full catch up .

So these number are real and quite large and they can effect our lifestyle if they get to large .

All we have is a HOPE that things will recover , until they do it is only a wish
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:10 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:51 pm
vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:47 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:23 pm
Also, (and this works for me...maybe not anyone else) I have to continuously remind myself that I didn't really earn any of that money I made over the last two years. I didn't have to wake up early, or bleed or sweat for any of it....I sort of won it. So really from the standpoint of honesty it was kind of a present to begin with. I don't really feel entitled to those gains....
I have the opposite reaction. When I lose in investing I compare to how I'd never spend that amount of money on a conscious buying decision. Or, how many hours, weeks, months, years I had to work to earn that amount of money that I just lost.

It's all the same amount of money.

I earned from working $100,000. Put it in Treasury bills where it stays at $100,000.

I had this other $100,000. Invest it. Goes to $150,000. Then to $80,000. I could have converted that $150,000 to also being Treasury bills anywhere from the %150,000 down to the $80,000.

It's the same real money as the $100,000 I earned from working.

It's all my money. It's all under my control how much I end up with (my control insofar as to deciding where to put it).
It is strange. I am currently down a REALLY nice car $ amount right now. An amount I would never, ever, ever spend on a car. But there it is in front of me in bright red. And if I gain it all back in the next couple weeks, I will not have felt like I just won back the ability to buy a car I never would have bought.

I am going to have to work really hard to spend money in retirement. I am such a cheap ass.
Yeah I share that similarity. Investing in your frugality skills brings a lot of piece of mind. I'm sure I'll never spend all my money...which by this forums standards is probably pretty meager to begin with. Was looking at cars today...a honda with 130k miles for 800 bucks caught my eye! Fixing it up would be a fun project and a learning experience...so what if I've lost a tesla in value? I wouldn't get any joy from buying one in the first place.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:13 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:11 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:51 pm
At zero rates cash is peeing in the ocean when the three heavy weights dive
Isn't cash an option on buying all the other assets at a discounted price?

If we could price that, then cash would be going up in relative value.
Excellent point. Dry powder always/usually available in the PP.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:18 pm

The problem with the dry powered theory is the same problem we see with cash buffers in retirement...

The drag and weight of cash tends to outweigh the fact that you may occasionally get a good time to deploy that cash in a down turn ..especially with equities, markets are usually up 67% of the time and down only 1/3 so you generally give up way more in returns then that cash hoard gets to bring in .

As Michael kitces calls it , cash buffers tend to be a case of the emperor’s new clothes

https://www.kitces.com/blog/research-re ... ket-timer/

https://www.kitces.com/blog/are-cash-re ... necessary/
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:19 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:51 pm
At zero rates cash is peeing in the ocean when the three heavy weights dive
Can someone explain to me like I'm a 6 year-old why the three heavies (S&P, TLT, IAU) are continuously tanking?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:25 pm

there is no see saw effect between assets so if stocks go down bonds don’t go up .

The pp has assets that react to economic outcomes ,not each other .

Bonds react to recession and depression when rates are falling trying to stop the slide .

Gold reacts to big spreads in real returns on cash when they go negative .

Rising rates and rising inflation fears are the opposite of what gold and long term treasuries need to go up in value .

So in this environment, stocks are falling because safer assets are offering higher returns and the smell of recession or depression is not a concern for bonds .. rising rates are not good for gold as it makes it more expensive to sit on it.

In short we are likely dead in the water until rising rates spook investors with recession fears as they weigh down growth .

I may be dead by then. Lol
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:42 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:29 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:18 pm
The drag and weight of cash tends to outweigh the fact that you may occasionally get a good time to deploy that cash in a down turn ..
You can also lever the PP and have no cash as long as you're absolutely certain that you will have credit available when you need to rebalance from "available credit" to the 3 risk assets.
I am retired but I don’t mix the cash we live on or our emergency cash with the pp cash ...

The portfolio is a what it is and that cash tempers the long term treasuries in a ladder ....

So I don’t want to spend down the pp cash to live .

Of course the problem is a retiree can end up way to cash heavy ..... we have 630k in t bills and shy for the pp , but we also have almost 200k we hold in checking ..we draw over 100k a year out to live , so that ends up being a lot of cash at zero
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:23 pm

These discussions about how the PP sucks always come up at these times. And mj (and budd esp. on gold) are major negatory commenters on the pp. No disrespect.

I have no problem with it, after years I am used to it.

I keep on commenting because I hope to instill in younger investors that stocks aren't the be all end all of investing. Diversifying to most analysts means being in different types of "stock" sectors, and sometimes bonds, and almost never gold, and cash is almost never discussed except as an emergency fund.

Being able to sleep at night is the key for me.

Last March, if I were exclusively in stocks, I would have been down over 35% for some length of time.

Because I was in the pp my max DD was about 10%.

Easy to sleep through that, while acknowledging I may likely never achieve the overall CAGR that a stock heavy investor gets as long as they can hold through tough periods.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:28 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:23 pm
These discussions about how the PP sucks always come up at these times. And mj (and budd esp. on gold) are major negatory commenters on the pp. No disrespect.

I have no problem with it, after years I am used to it.

I keep on commenting because I hope to instill in younger investors that stocks aren't the be all end all of investing. Diversifying to most analysts means being in different types of "stock" sectors, and sometimes bonds, and almost never gold, and cash is almost never discussed except as an emergency fund.

Being able to sleep at night is the key for me.

Last March, if I were exclusively in stocks, I would have been down over 35% for some length of time.

Because I was in the pp my max DD was about 10%.

Easy to sleep through that, while acknowledging I may likely never achieve the overall CAGR that a stock heavy investor gets as long as they can hold through tough periods.
All good points, I’m always bitching about something.
For the record I do hold all components except have replaced LLT’s in taxable with ITT’s in retirement accounts.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:04 pm

One tweak that has made sense for me is tightening rebalance bands to 20 and 30%. With all the crazy swings over the last ten years I don't think at any point I got much above 30 or below 20 in any particular asset. Would have missed a lot of rebalancing opportunities if I had held out for 15 and 35 bands.

Also when rebalancing especially after an asset has had a huge run-up I've been selling off to 20% and holding that until an appreciable drop happens. That seems to be working as well.

Playing with deep cash is another little tweak that can add a bit of juice in this environment as well...in my case that's either been with ibonds or holding eebonds with guaranteed doubling if these low interest rates persist. I'm sure CD deals pop up occasionally as well that could make sense.

I don't know if any others have any little tweaks that they implement...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:05 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:23 pm
These discussions about how the PP sucks always come up at these times. And mj (and budd esp. on gold) are major negatory commenters on the pp. No disrespect.

I have no problem with it, after years I am used to it.

I keep on commenting because I hope to instill in younger investors that stocks aren't the be all end all of investing. Diversifying to most analysts means being in different types of "stock" sectors, and sometimes bonds, and almost never gold, and cash is almost never discussed except as an emergency fund.

Being able to sleep at night is the key for me.

Last March, if I were exclusively in stocks, I would have been down over 35% for some length of time.

Because I was in the pp my max DD was about 10%.

Easy to sleep through that, while acknowledging I may likely never achieve the overall CAGR that a stock heavy investor gets as long as they can hold through tough periods.
The truth is we have not had a generation in America yet going back to 1871 where stocks over a typical accumulation stage were not the top dogs for youngins ....there is zero financial logic for those with decades to go as long term investors to mitigate temporary dips with bonds or investment cash and permanently hurt long term returns .

I say if they don’t have the pucker factor then they should hire someone else to handle the job for them ...
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:07 pm

Oh, another tweak is watching NAV discount and premiums with close ended funds. Can sometimes get way out of whack...that can be a way to squeeze some profits out.

I also like trying to absolutely minimize expense ratios...I think I'm somewhere around .07 for whole portfolio...which is pretty good I think.

All of these can scratch the urge to fiddle itch...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:10 pm

doodle wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:07 pm
Oh, another tweak is watching NAV discount and premiums with close ended funds. Can sometimes get way out of whack...that can be a way to squeeze some profits out.

I also like trying to absolutely minimize expense ratios...I think I'm somewhere around .07 for whole portfolio...which is pretty good I think.

All of these can scratch the urge to fiddle itch...
I will take my fidelity contra and blue chip growth funds over any low cost index fund any day ....it has been decades now they have been doing a far better job including those higher expenses. I own vti too but there has been no comparison over most time frames
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 5:05 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:23 pm
These discussions about how the PP sucks always come up at these times. And mj (and budd esp. on gold) are major negatory commenters on the pp. No disrespect.

I have no problem with it, after years I am used to it.

I keep on commenting because I hope to instill in younger investors that stocks aren't the be all end all of investing. Diversifying to most analysts means being in different types of "stock" sectors, and sometimes bonds, and almost never gold, and cash is almost never discussed except as an emergency fund.

Being able to sleep at night is the key for me.

Last March, if I were exclusively in stocks, I would have been down over 35% for some length of time.

Because I was in the pp my max DD was about 10%.

Easy to sleep through that, while acknowledging I may likely never achieve the overall CAGR that a stock heavy investor gets as long as they can hold through tough periods.
The truth is we have not had a generation in America yet going back to 1871 where stocks over a typical accumulation stage were not the top dogs for youngins ....there is zero financial logic for those with decades to go as long term investors to mitigate temporary dips with bonds or investment cash and permanently hurt long term returns .

I say if they don’t have the pucker factor then they should hire someone else to handle the job for them ...
As you know a 50% drop requires a 100% gain to get back to even. Cash is extremely potent I think...I love being able to load up when discounts abound. How that works over the long term I don't know. But mitigation of loses combined with dry powder...I like.
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