mathjak's daytrading adventures

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:11 pm

From a year and a half ago -- me and you.... ;)

So you were willing to wait a few months.....
-----------------------
---------------------
mj, of course you've never gotten burned in these trades, right? You just wait them out? What's the longest you held a losing trade? Or are you so good at timing you never really have to wait?

I am asking sarcastically, but would like to know. It sounds like you should make a newsletter ... ;D
------------------
Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:44 am

actually no , the gold and tlt trades have always worked out fine ... if it moves against me i hold it . so far there is always an opportunity to sell in a spike ...sometimes it may take a few months .
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:36 pm

Once the trend was continually down I can’t trade ...so I was out of gold for a while ...I only bought in late December again but decided to swap portfolios totally to the pp ...

Have I gotten burned in the trades ? Rarely ...certainly not enough that gold approached 80k in profits between Iau ,Gld and sgol.I will post my trading statement from 2020.

I can’t say what is the longest I held a trade without going over hundreds of trades but I can easily enough post the results right from my statement
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:57 pm

here is 2020

realized only ..

the big one for 66k in red was a fund swap in march . it went back in to equities and made a handsome profit .

many small trades i exited when they fell after i bought and bounced back not doing what i wanted .

bottom line is over 216k in profit after losses are subtracted out . I ended 2020 with 216k in realized and 135k in unrealized
So that is 351k in gains for 2020 ...since converting to the pp about 125k was given back

Image

Image

Image

Image
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:07 pm

I don’t need to predict markets ..at this stage any portfolios I use are time matched to fit my needs ...even at 65 one has money they won’t eat with for 2 to 3 decades so regardless that is still very long term money .

So predicting is not needed with portfolios that supply both current needs , intermediates and short term needs ...

But I don’t care what portfolio you are running there is no portfolio that is the right move all the time ..

The only question is did I pick a portfolio that is wrong for the time frame ... and if I did how long will it be the wrong portfolio for the time frame ....that is only known watching it progress ...it moves every day , and it heads off in a direction that usually is noise and tomorrow it moves in another direction, but day after day and week after week and month after month those moves develop in to trends and your balance hinges on those trends .

Until a portfolio changes direction that change is only a wish.

No different than looking at the permanent portfolio fund which changes stocks all the time , , it has energy stocks ,it has natural resource stocks ,is always changing stocks behind the scene swapping out one stock for another along the way .


No one says stop the clock ,we made a change ..now we have to give the portfolio more time before looking at its performance.. of course not , it is one continuous investment which has its performance rated as one continuous investment ...no one says the year to date performance can’t count because energy stocks did not get a chance to prosper .

Rather from the moment you plunk your money in good or bad that performance counts and it is what it is until it changes .

Same thing applies to the insight models . There are changes every so often and sometimes they are in to funds that are totally different assets like gold sector funds or energy sector funds ....it is all a work in progress and the changes are going to be better or worse after you make them .

Well I swapped out some of my funds for the pp funds and so far that change is worse ....I guess that sums it up ..will that change be a smart choice , no way of knowing until when and if it happens ...but if it is a worse choice then it it is a worse choice until it isn’t
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:08 pm

We used to tease my friend all the time because he married a virgin ...we used to tell him he has the easiest job in the world , she doesn’t know if he is good or bad ..there is no point of reference .

Many pp users no longer have a point of reference to another portfolio that worked well for them , met their pucker factor and met their goals ... they in fact likely moved to the pp because likely what they were using didn’t work for them .

So there is nothing to compare to .

I on the other hand had a very well performing mix and it met my goals fine .but it had no real downside protection and decades of nice juicy gains at a point where i can chill out

So I swapped out just some of the bond funds , swapped them, for tlt and Gld and continued on with the pp only to watch my balance get pounded while what I left is still up .

So that is why I say so far bad choice ....no different then swapping out a stock that ends up still performing well for one that isn’t ..that does not mean perhaps at some point the tide will turn but it does mean so far not a goood swap
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:44 am, edited 4 times in total.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:16 pm

You can call it whatever you want but it stays a poor choice until it isn’t..so far stocks fell too , but the downside protection still wasn’t there yet as the economic outcomes needed for those assets to work are not in place . So it was in a way a self defeating swap so far.

So far I am down 3.95% ytd at today’s close over all on the pp but on 2.54 million invested in the pp that is a lot of dollars .vs what I left being up ytd so the dollars down from this swap are more than 3.95% if you follow that logic.

It is well over a 100k difference and I still don’t have the down side protection I did it for in the first place under these economic conditions
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:24 pm

It’s an uphill battle to convince someone that they made the right choice when the current outcome has been disappointing. More so when the alternative option for that individual has outperformed over the same timeframe. And to add icing on the cake, they went with a very conservative approach that turned out to be anything but tame.

What else are we debating. Seems very logical that MJ feels the way he does.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:26 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:24 pm
It’s an uphill battle to convince someone that they made the right choice when the current outcome has been disappointing. More so when the alternative option for that individual has outperformed over the same timeframe. And to add icing on the cake, they went with a very conservative approach that turned out to be anything but tame.

What else are we debating?
You pretty much nailed it there bud
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:01 am

Well it’s Monday ...let the slide continue as the stars are still not aligning for gold or LT bonds as equities fall...YAWN
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:49 am

Golds turn now, this portfolio is really BAD.
I learned my lesson a few moons ago.
Yuck
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:00 am

It needs those stars to align so the economic outcomes are right for all this protection I am paying for to work .

Otherwise all I bought is a far more volatile portfolio and losses

Rememember my equities are unchanged ...I took a very benign bond portion of what I had which was mostly short term , high yield and a total bond fund and swapped that portion for gold and long term treasuries which can be far more volatile when those economic outcomes aint right.

I was hoping to add down side protection but so far I got nothing as far as that ..but let’s keep the faith and see what happens ...
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:06 am

MJ, perhaps you can poke a hole in this logic.
When stocks are falling don’t you want to be a net buyer rather than stay in Gold and LTT’s waiting for some rebound in these assets to offset losses?
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:34 am

What I want is to keep the allocation constant to equities that fits the plan , so if equities are falling I would be adding them ...

Now I am lower on equities one day , gold the next , Tlt the next , so it is just a mix of events...

In the other model if equities fell it was a given they would outweigh the bond side even if bonds fell since it was a benign mix on the bond side.


The bet with the pp is that if equities fall , it needs the right environment to protect you or it is like having 75% in equities at times as all 3 get whacked simultaneously.... then it takes loads of gains to get back.

Just to get even now I have to gain back 125k ...that is typically gains for a good year by itself ...so the deeper tlt and gld drag us the harder it is to get back when the smoke finally clears .

It is not enough that assets just reverse , they need to reverse enough to undo the damage
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:43 am

You guys are perfect for feeding off each other!

The sky is always falling for TLT and gold (currently is, no doubt) but when it comes to stocks....35% down in equities last March and almost no talk of the bloodbath that was going on in stocks in this topic.

You can say mj is prescient, because stocks always do seem to come back.

But if you are reading this topic and freaking out about your gold and bonds allocation, it is very rare that this topic ever has anything positive about those.

Image
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:29 pm

I won’t have anything positive to say about gold or Tlt until there is something positive to report ...this thread is the real deal ..

We don’t look in the rear view mirror and talk about the lovely past .

We look ahead and navigate through what we see ..if it is a shitty road it stays a shitty road ..

As far as when stocks fall , investors expect that ...but when people buy defensive portfolios they buy them because they want fighter cover when stocks fall ....so in effect they are buying portfolio insurance so to speak ...

But when they expect to collect on that portfolio insurance they are being told , sorry , economic events are not aligned , no coverage.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:39 pm

I have understood things maybe a bit differently?

1) Yes, gold and TLT are bought to diversify, but
2) As much as for that, they are in the portfolio because they are volatile and will help cause rebalancing events, positively or negatively.

Aren't you always considering the past? I think you are? You make statements that we are reinvesting daily, but then you also have a bias toward stocks always coming back. Isn't that looking historically?

And if not, then you have that bias because of what forward looking reason specifically? Because they've always rebounded? Again, historical bias?

And as vincent_c points out, I did rebalance out of gold and TLT at some point last year, so I did capture some of those gains, so it has been working for me.
Last edited by Cortopassi on Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:40 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:38 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:29 pm
I won’t have anything positive to say about gold or Tlt until there is something positive to report ...this thread is the real deal ..

We don’t look in the rear view mirror and talk about the lovely past .

We look ahead and navigate through what we see ..if it is a shitty road it stays a shitty road ..

As far as when stocks fall , investors expect that ...but when people buy defensive portfolios they buy them because they want fighter cover when stocks fall ....so in effect they are buying portfolio insurance so to speak ...

But when they expect to collect on that portfolio insurance they are being told , sorry , economic events are not aligned , no coverage.
I disagree with this.

A PP investor already cashed in their TLT and GLD insurance during the pandemic.
Well if anyone bought in the last 6 months all they have is losses on those two so until the days comes again , that it hits they got nothing yet.. they are paying premiums and have no claims paid .

Which is what my thread is all about ..it is what it is until it isn’t.

Stock investors made out big time in March too if they bought , or just rode it through to new highs
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:03 pm

Well once it resumes and losses are recovered then tlt and Gld will be more favorable but until then they stay the Debbie downers Hurting my investments
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:13 pm

Don’t misunderstand....I never said I don’t have confidence in gold or Tlt ....I said I go by what they show me they do ....until they do it they are just accumulating losses ...it is a simple concept.....I don’t care what they did , show me what you will do for me except cost me money.

Until that day comes keep your charts and what Harry said .....
What it does for me , with my money, in my time frame is all that counts
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:32 pm

If you are talking about Tlt and Gld they fell 111k since I bought them the start of the year..both are down about 8% in 9 weeks which is actually less then they are downytd since I bought in as it fell more and more.

Until they do come back they are LOSERS
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:24 pm

I love getting into your thinking mj.

You discount history in many posts. "I don't care what they did..." Then here you talk about 9 week and YTD returns. Do you see the irony? Or am I just not able to understand?

So then why don't you in total add in all the gains from previous year(s) trading in and out of TLT and GLD profitably?

You can't not look at history. It's impossible. You are always looking at trends to make your decisions. No??
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:46 pm

The reality is that it is one big continuation of my investing since 1987 .....each day markets act on it and over time I add money but It is still one continuous work in progress that started in 1987 ...

The portfolio evolves over time and some assets change over time , but so what ...that does not mean we restart the clock each time we swap an asset ..good or bad that asset is working at the ring of the bell either making money or losing money ...

It is a loser if the change drags you down and winner if it takes you up ..there is no such thing as a time element ....the change is either good or bad the second you make it ....it just may change over time but wishes don’t count.

Whatever my balance is that balance started 33 years ago and there is no gains or house money , every penny every day is all my money and each morning when the market opens that is all PRINCIPAL ..... if something falls 56k after you make the swap it is a loser and that is what gld and tlt each did ..

If I bought a stock and it fell 112k instead,it is the same loser ....the fact one day it may recover is a wish until it happens


The fact what I bought fell 112k is irrelevant to what I made last year .....it was all my own money that fell 112k and if not for the fact I bought what I did it wouldn’t be down 112k ......so you got to get this what about what you made last year out of your head.

Each time frame stands on its own merit ...whether I am an investor continuing on with the same portfolio of 2.6 million I always use year after year or a brand new investor who never invested before , with 2.6 million , down 112k is the same down 112k ...it has nothing to do with anyone’s last year.

How we made our money does not matter , it could be from that portfolio, a different portfolio, our job or stole it ..all that counts is at the ring of the bell you have X amount of your money invested and when that bell rings this is what is happening to it
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:10 pm

I have PTSD man.... and deja vu.

We have had this same discussion many, many times!

Yep, it is 100% principal. I agree there.

Where you probably will always lose me is the thinking past that.

You made a bet. Paid off many times. You are currently down a lot on the same type of bet.

"Seasoned" professionals would likely have told you to put in a stop loss when you made the trade. Would have saved me countless sums of money. That, to me makes it more day to day thinking. You put in a 5/6/7/8% stop loss, and if it triggers, you're out, free to trade the same way the next day.

But now you are dug into a loss. But it is today's money. Only looking forward. Do you have any indication TLT or gold will reverse? Or is it a coin flip? If it's a flip, then I lose you on why you are still holding these, as you say, losers? Why not cut bait and come back and try again at a different time?

What you are doing is the hallmark of a bad trader (what I USED to do all the time). Buy in, get burned, wait for breakeven, get out. Then what?

You are not following your own words, in my estimation.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:13 pm

vincent_c wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:48 pm
I feel like I'm compelled to disagree with a lot of the things MJ says (even though this is his journal) just to protect those who may be considering using the PP from not turning around and running away from the one thing that could be life changing for them in a positive way.
Don’t worry. This stuff was moved to its own thread outside of the pp for a reason, twofold actually: 1) No one needs to associate it with anything but the VP and 2) mj can speak freely.

And for those who do venture here, maybe it’s a nice counterbalance. It might have served as a temptation to daytrade gold in the past. Perhaps now it’s a reinforcement to just let things fall, stick with the rebalancing bands and buy cheap.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:15 pm

Except cortopossi this isn’t a trade ...it is a portfolio that hopefully is a long term hold ....there is a difference ..

But so far it is losing a lot money with two of its assets ... but it is still not a trade .

Which is why I let it run and not only let it run I brought it up from the original 200k in each asset the day I started ,to committing 650k as of now in each asset and I may go up to 700k in each committing almost 3 million to it .

But that does not mean so far I am happy with the performance compared to what I left for the pp..

Read that last sentence again because that is the crux f it ...I wanted more downside protection then I had , however that down side protection is coming at a very high cost so far .... I am hoping that eventually I made the right move but as of now it wasn’t such a great move ....time will tell if the pp still has it or whether I shot my self in the foot by putting to much faith in the pp in this environment in this new normal
Post Reply