mathjak's daytrading adventures

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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:48 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:48 am
Nevertheless, I'm glad this thread finally got started so I know where to go when I want to read this stuff instead of just finding it randomly in almost any other thread.
I appreciate your saying that. I felt like a jerk for requesting it, but now I'm happy it's all here in one spot if I want to peek, and not floating around like all those 1/2 cents in Superman III.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by stuper1 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:41 pm

You weren't a jerk. You were a genius. I'm glad you thought of it.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:53 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:42 pm
Really, you believe that it is not speculating?

Buy gold after a 5% drop. It rises 5%. You’ve made 5%. Now what happens when there’s a steady 20% climb, like just happened from June to sept? How are you getting back in? You’d get in after a few percent correction after the 20% rise, so haven’t you lost out on most of that gain?

And how have you used this to take advantage of gold’s 18% rise over the past 12 months? And aren’t you giving up tlt dividends as well?
Well I had about 28 trades in gld over the year and each one captured at least 1% so you do the math ....so it can be far more profitable taking small hit and runs because many of those trades were in the same day ........ even if the trend is up it has 1 to 2% moves all the time ...same with Tlt ... I did not trade it as much ... but realize that money is in all those other things when not in gld or Tlt adding to the profits as the same money gets recycled .

Markets spend about 80% of the time somewhere between there last low and last high so there is plenty of small volatility trading that can be just up an down going no where . The stock never has to go any higher and you can just catch the 1 or 2% move over and over and over ...I can think of very few things that did not experience a 1 or 2% set back in very very short time trading that did not at least bounce back in a couple of days enough to buy and sell out at a profit even if small when wrong ....

as you saw above , I had very few losing trades where I did not get a chance to get out with at least a small profit if things did not go my way.. there is usually a bounce even if after that bounce it goes down more .

But remember this is not my main investing portfolio, this is my variable portfolio which is really my fun trading ..it just happens to trade gld and Tlt a lot so it is easy to make a pp out of it worst comes to worse .

I have big positions in both Tlt and Gld as I completed the buys Friday , over 275k in each since we sold the last of our real estate in sept and were holding cash ,so if it does not go my way ,who cares ... worst case is I hold it and I am no different than anyone else here. There is no downside other than by tying up the money in gld and Tlt I won’t get the quick returns I plan on if I have to sit and wait and then I am a full fledged pp user .

But I think the current situation is going to leave both Tlt and Gld very volatile and a good vehicle for what I do.

I also have the luxury of taking my conservative fidelity insight income portfolio which is 25% equities and selling off the bond portion and averaging down in to the permanent portfolio if gold and Tlt fall a lot ....I can effectively double my position in the pp doubling down and averaging out much lower .

One thing I like is flexibility in my investing , it opens the door for so many ways to do things .....

By structuring our portfolios differently at different stages of our lives it allowed us to have maximum growth early on and now in retirement we have quite a few different options running different portfolios that serve different purposes
Last edited by mathjak107 on Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:04 am

i added some more thoughts to the previous post since i was still having posing issues on new posts
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:00 am

Wouldn't work for me, bottom line. Glad it works for you.

My results, this year, if I had 275k in each of GLD and TLT in each at the beginning of the year I would be sitting on a paper gain of $65k. With no work.

Obviously, they don't go up every year, and your strategy has a better chance of catching ups and downs. You seem to have good control at not getting burned.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm

except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .

hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by modeljc » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm
except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .

hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
Ever think about using TMF and UGLD? Can you restate when you buy and when you sell. Is it wait for 5% drop and then buy. Sell when you have a 1% plus trade.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by dualstow » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:04 am
i added some more thoughts to the previous post since i was still having posing issues on new posts
Do you think it's your device or the website?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:11 pm

Can you put some details down as to what you are doing?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Xan » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:43 pm

Kbg wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:11 pm
Can you put some details down as to what you are doing?
Kbg, I'm not sure whether you're asking about stock trading or about attempting to post.

Mathjak and I have been in touch about his posting issues and they should now be resolved.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:18 pm

I'm asking about how he is doing these trades, thank you for asking!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:48 pm

As most know here my what I will call my permanent investments ,have been following the models in the fidelity insight newsletters for more than 30 years ... but I am a tinkerer at heart and always enjoy my seat of the pants trading ...

I don’t really have a format or criteria other then I look for something beaten up and I will take a shot on a bounce even if it is a dead cat bounce for a couple of quick points ..

I tend to like gld ,Tlt , and oil uso for my trades

I have different amounts in these trades at different times so depending what is available so is the size of the investment .

I had bought gld and Tlt after some down days a few weeks ago for about the 10th time this year ...a little voice in my head said sell the day of the fed announcement .... so I sold , and next day it went up even more ...oh well I sold to early .....but then the selling started and within days they both were down thousands from where I sold .....when I thought it fell enough in dollars for the size of the investment I was going to make I bought in Tuesday , debated selling wed when I was up about 4K but decided to stay put ...Well Thursday and Friday saw more selling so I decided to add to both positions .

So I have 275k in each of gld ,Tlt with a max if we dip further of 300k in each ..... so if we fall I will average down up to 25k more ..... when I see 1 to 2% in profit I will capture it and sell ....if we dip farther then I am a pp user until it has its day in the sun again ....

I can’t really say many times what my return would have been because if I leave Tlt or gld it is to buy something else , so the gains don’t stop ...sometimes it is weeks and I am in cash instruments getting interest while waiting for the next investment...

So while I have been lucky and make money it is really more for fun than return , I just love the game ....

But because gold and long term treasuries can make a nifty portfolio if I am wrong I have no reservations about putting the same amount of dollars in as I would one of my actual portfolios.

Having just completed the sale of all our real estate I felt I had enough invested in markets and at this stage I didn’t want anymore in the models which already have multiple 7 figures ...so I figured at least with gold and Tlt they can fly fighter cover for the other stuff if we have one continual rate rise and I can’t get an exit point ..

Anyway that’s the story and I will let you know what I do when I do it ....the plan is if I see a 2% rise from here it all goes ....if we have another 1% drop I will add the remaining 25k
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Kbg » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:00 pm

Thanks!
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 am

modeljc wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:31 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:16 pm
except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ...
so it was a great return overall .
remember too gold had an exceptional year too along with tlt ... sitting static with them the last 3 and 5 years was not so pretty ...
gld returned 4.14 over the last 3 years as an average and 4% over the last 5
tlt returned 3.83% over the 3 year and 5.00% the last 5
so my trading in tlt , gld and all the other stuff over the years was a lot better as well .

hey , it works for me , i don't expect others to do it .. if they wanted to be dirty lil market timers they would not be in the pp ... i am only explaining why i am a fair weather friend to the pp and it is my variable portfolio so to speak because Tlt and Gld seem to be more about timing the markets , blink and the gains can vanish in a day.....
Ever think about using TMF and UGLD? Can you restate when you buy and when you sell. Is it wait for 5% drop and then buy. Sell when you have a 1% plus trade.
i don't like the leveraged versions for what i do ..they can have unintended consequences if you need to hold these types of funds longer term because they moved against you . they may not track what they are supposed to well over longer periods of time
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:04 am

adding more to gld and tlt today
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:12 am

Just as an averaging down strategy, less than 10% "dry" powder to average down seems pretty small?

If GLD is 137 and you've bought 2007 shares with 275k, and it drops to 135, and you average in 185 shares with 25k, you've only averaged down ~17 cents of that $2 drop.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:23 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 11:12 am
Just as an averaging down strategy, less than 10% "dry" powder to average down seems pretty small?

If GLD is 137 and you've bought 2007 shares with 275k, and it drops to 135, and you average in 185 shares with 25k, you've only averaged down ~17 cents of that $2 drop.
at this point the amount i will add will just about have no effect . i did my averaging down last week , i started buying in the mid 138's last week .

so being there is a little money left i want to commit as long as we are not up i may as well finish
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:09 am

we hit a point i would sell TLT today , gold did not hit yet ..so I decided i am letting them run longer still keeping the pp intact .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 14, 2019 11:52 am

I saw the drop, and now the bounceback....

it just seems so EASY sometimes.... we should all be able to do it. Good luck to you.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:09 pm

Things get in to this cycle where theY fix themselves to some event and then cycle with the news ..... you know the next favorable tweet saying good things about the trade deal will sell off Tlt and Gld again ...

Then the news is unfounded and the money pours back in ...this has been on going for a year now ... Tlt is up over 6k in a week since I completed buying
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 4:36 pm

Still holding ......
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:14 pm

Sold Tlt today , up 11,200 ... watching for a dip. still have gld . it did not go up enough yet . i was going to sell it the other day when i was up nicely but i held in there for some reason and now it rolled back .

Bought some gbtc today after bitcoin plunged the last month
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:26 pm

Mathjak,

How did you decide to go with GE and XLE?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:08 pm

i watch for what gets beaten up the usual 2% or so and take a shot the market over did it . if it does not do a dead cat bounce before hitting my stop loss i am out .

when i guess wrong i can be out very quickly if i don't get the bounce . as you see in the trading statement i posted i keep losses to a very low minimum and in fact if the stock recovers the next day but is only up slightly i take the small profit and move on .

unless it is something i don't mind keeping i keep the investments under 20k . i don't mind having to sit on gold , long term treasuries , xle , uso , as even in a down trend they spike upwards when it is their day in the sun . i am up to 400k in gold i am holding at this point as i averaged down . i am about .33% from even after today . but things like ge or kraft heinz , no way would i speculate in them with big big dollars .... just in and out.

we should get a tweet or news soon that should send TLT back down a bit and i will buy it again and see where it goes . i don't mind holding these if i have to . but i rather ride the wave .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:21 am

Xle And GE gone . Both at small profits ...now both are down .. if Ge falls another 2% so from where I sold I will rebuy . Down about 1% now from where I sold earlier....these are all tradeded in my ira so no tax issues
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