mathjak's daytrading adventures

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buddtholomew
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:14 am

Another lovely opening for Gold and LTT’s...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:31 am

Yep , lots of weakness with little end in sight .

You can’t even say the unemployment claims are worse that were released today ...many had the one year unemployment period end in March .....many states required you to reapply for the extension...so we were dropped in March and added back weeks later after being processed
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:47 am

Bought some more Gold this morning @ 16.50
Reducing some cash on hand.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:04 am

Good luck
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:04 am

So just letting the finished portfolio coast along and see what it brings to the party ..so far it’s been a free loader and did not bring anything to speak of ..it let equities cater the party


718,698 in Tlt

719,264 split between iau and gld

718,223 in shy ,Bil and fdlxx

718,500 split between fidelity contra , voo and vti
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:07 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:04 am
So just letting the finished portfolio coast along and see what it brings to the party ..so far it’s been a free loader and did not bring anything to speak of ..it let equities cater the party


718,698 in Tlt

719,264 split between iau and gld

718,223 in shy ,Bil and fdlxx

718,500 split between fidelity contra , voo and vti
MJ, you’ve done well managing the pull-back in Gold and TLT. Hopefully it’s smooth sailing from here on out 8)
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:10 am

Tlt still down about 56k .


Gold still down about 26k but at this point the 26k I had ytd in gains and other trades erased it when I moved to Iau .


The cash side is down 150 bucks

And equities are up nice But only because these equities carried over from my old portfolio so they still have accused gains like contra up 60k,


So last years realized gains were 216k , this year realized gains and losses are a wash as Gld erased those ,and the pp shows up 1.50% or 40,500 because my equities carried over their gains

Had I not made the change I would be up 3-5 % more roughly from the old portfolios so it is a lot of money given up to go this route so far
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:21 pm

The good news is you averaged down and had sufficient equities to whether the storm.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:58 pm


the pp shows up 1.50% or 40,500 because my equities carried over their gains


So the portfolio as a whole is up 1.5%?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:41 pm

Yes and no .. if we are talking about the pp portion ...ytd no .

If I include the 26k I made from other trades and all the profit unrealized in my equities I still have from pre the pp then yes I still show up 1.50% despite the pp losses .


So the whole combo now shows up 1.50% but it is no thanks to the gold , Tlt and cash components of the pp nor is the pp up ytd.



If I set everything back to just measure the pp ytd it is likely down 3-4%
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:58 am

MJ,

Got any moves in store for upcoming week?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:01 am

Nope none ...got all the money I want invested in
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:16 am

Strong opening...yields are definitely signaling something
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:23 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:16 am
Strong opening...yields are definitely signaling something
Possibly in response to lower inflation reading.
Lower yields benefit gold and stocks are enjoying strong earnings.

Complete guess.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:30 am

Nice jump in Gld and tlt but I am still down ......did recover quite a bit the last week or so but still have tens of thousands to go to be whole
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:32 am

In the inflation thread of the bonds topic I posted a very interesting analysis of QE. I seem to be running across quite a number of sound minds in the deflationary camp. One could argue that the asset inflation we have seen is truly a self fulfilling prophecy. It's amazing how well that narrative has held up despite the feds continued failure to hit inflation targets. Definitely worth a watch in my estimation
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am

if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:49 am

PP for the year is back in the green for me today.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:01 am

if i include all my gains this year i am up 2.90% but pp still down alone by a little bit
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by amdda01 » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:54 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
MJ,

So are you gonna wait until you make your money back on TLT - and then transition to a combo TLT/IEF?
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:57 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
It's amazing though how profoundly wrong the market has been regarding inflation over more than a decade. In my estimation technology, aging demographics, low birthrates, indebtedness and political gridlock all point to deflation.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm

amdda01 wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
MJ,

So are you gonna wait until you make your money back on TLT - and then transition to a combo TLT/IEF?
I did some today ....I don’t think we will see Tlt come back to those levels anytime soon..it had a good bounce but I think the potential for a fall again is getting greater with each report
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:03 pm

We need to get a QE thread started but from what I understand it's not going to to anything for inflation....just like it didnt in Japan for the last 30 years. Deficit fueled fiscal stimulus might create short quick pops above trend before dropping back and leaving us further indebted. I'm not sure how we get out of this deflationary morass without a rewriting of federal reserve act that would allow for direct funding of government with printed money.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:35 am

pp shows ytd down 1.52%

i show i am up 3.19% now , but that is including outside trades not in the pp offsetting pp losses .

my reference model i switched from shows

the income model up 3.76%

the growth model up 12.29%

so my return is between those two when i use it .

so far the switch has cost me a lot
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:48 am

MJ, you managed the decline admirably and have achieved the original objective to protect 2020 gains. It didn’t go as initially planned, but a 1% decline is negligible for your purposes.
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