mathjak's daytrading adventures

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mathjak107
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:50 am

well yes and no .

while i preserved the gains i also lost the subsequent gains the models i moved from had

so i dont give myself any atta boys .

this move i did cost me a lot of money in this years gains to date.

in retrospect the other model was only 30-35% equities but it lacked the interest rate sensitivity of the pp so it did way better .

also one key fund in both the income model and growth models i used was up 18% ytd blowing away a total market fund adding to this years gains..eventually i will go back as i dont see much of a benefit in the pp today.

that was a fund they moved to the end of last year as i was transitioning to the pp .so i never owned it .

in fact eventually the other models will be far enough ahead that it can fall some and likely still be ahead of the pp unless rates come way down .

so for 2021 the pp may have been a poor choice for a defensive play , but lets see , we still have months to go so maybe the under dog will get a break.

perhaps i may do a 50/50 eventually keeping half in the pp , but for sure giving up the other portfolio was a mistake the last almost 6 months . so no atta boys yet .

i did move 1/3 of tlt to ief so perhaps that should improve things a bit if tlt falls more . it had a rise recently that i think was over done
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by Cortopassi » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:01 am

You remind me of me in the worrying (in the past) of making poor investment choices, but then you are overall still making money, just not as much.

Jeez, man, it's all relative, isn't it? You are sitting on a tidy retirement sum. And you just got out of the hospital vs. it being your last residence.

It's your time and mental energy... all I'd say is maybe you should get out there and take more photos... ^-^
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:46 pm

I'm just waiting for the deflationary story to return...the financial media is fixated on inflation...but the most knowledgeable names I have heard of late are in the deflationary crowd. Lacy Hunt and Jeff Snider come to mind but there are others. I wouldn't be surprised to see long bonds test previous highs at some point again.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:46 pm

I don’t see it ..the fed is way to anti deflation.....never fight the fed
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:29 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:46 pm
I don’t see it ..the fed is way to anti deflation.....never fight the fed
What makes you thinks the Fed has any power to do anything about it...anymore than the central bank of Japan has? They've been seriously anti deflation for almost 15 years and still haven't been able to hit targets.

I really urge you to listen to an alternative narrative to the mainstream...who have been dead wrong on long bonds, interest rates and inflation for years. Lacy Hunt and Jeff Snider are not lightweights....these guys have a much deeper understanding I've found than the Gundlachs and Gross's...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:30 pm

Simple answer ...we ain’t Japan and we didn’t nor will we make the same mistakes Japan did...our fed will make sure deflation does not happen even if we need wheel barrows full of money
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:49 pm

Yep, that's the narrative....funny how it hasn't worked in the case of Japan...whose central bank has far exceeded what our central bank has done....so not sure what mistakes you are referring too. They went harder and longer than our fed. Short of rewriting federal reserve act to allow direct funding of government by federal reserve their actions will be impotent to create inflation. Really would encourage people to seek out some voices outside of mainstream....so far they have been right.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:02 am

Japan is the poster child for what not to do back in 1987 when your economy crashes ...they could not have been more incorrect in their actions ..their banks raised rates .....they encouraged people to save more and spend less ...there were loads of other errors they made as well
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:56 am

I'd really encourage people to reconsider their assumptions....if only to help them become more comfortable with holding bonds.

Here are a couple historical graphs that accompanied the attached analysis. Did this lead to inflation? Hardly...

https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/03/0 ... reserves/
ABOOK-Mar-2021-1937-No-Inflation-Fed-Assets.png
ABOOK-Mar-2021-1937-No-Inflation-Fed-Assets.png (16.64 KiB) Viewed 881 times
ABOOK-Mar-2021-1937-No-Inflation-Fed-Liab-Money.png
ABOOK-Mar-2021-1937-No-Inflation-Fed-Liab-Money.png (15.51 KiB) Viewed 881 times
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:53 pm

Meh . Again times are so different that I don’t even consider what happened back in the Great Depression days as even worth considering at this point

Even 2008 couldn’t do it .

The banking system is different, fed actions are different

History rarely repeats itself the same way twice ..it is always different enough to make what you thought not work out that way.

I know people who plan for these kinds of things always see it as a viable event because they hold assets for this event but something like a depression has so little chance of happening in my opinion.

Odds are so slim compared to other outcomes because the fed is so anti deflation and anti depression
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:25 pm

You keep assuming the Fed can do something about it. So far, they haven't been able to....and neither have the central banks of Japan or Europe.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:34 pm

We will not be a Japan ,the odds are so slim I would never plan around it ....it would be like buying lightning insurance in case I personally get hit ...could it happen ? Sure ,anything can happen ..is it worth insuring against ? Likely not ....

If you feel we can be a Japan than plan accordingly.

I bet on my death bed we will still be waiting for that day it is likely such a long shot ..we will more than likely see hyper inflation before we are a Japan.

Japan wouldn’t have even been a Japan if they didn’t do all the wrong things in the very beginning that put them in the spiral of deadly deflation
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:27 pm

Converted another portion of Tlt to ief .....Tlt is now about a third ....
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:36 pm

Guess that's what makes a market...I have opposite inclination at moment...with corporate debt off the charts, a teetering stock market, and waning stimulus I think we are due for a flight to safety.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:56 pm

We may have a flight to safety but it may be in to dollars , or gold or Bitcoin ....I think investors are to Leary of inflation or inflation expectations.

A stock market that falls on inflation fears and expectations is not going to likely have bonds as the benefactor
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:59 am

https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/11/ ... n-anyway/
Mathjak said:
Japan wouldn’t have even been a Japan if they didn’t do all the wrong things in the very beginning that put them in the spiral of deadly deflation
Seems like the exactly the same mistakes to me....

"
If it shows up at the Federal Reserve, you can pretty much bet everything you own that it was tried out at the Bank of Japan first. And if it was the brilliant brainchild of someone at the BoJ, then you’re guaranteed it failed spectacularly. Which means, obviously, the “ideal” technocrats at the Fed intentionally copied something they knew had already proved ineffective and useless.

QE is hardly the only example of this.

More than halfway through the year 2016 when nothing was going to plan, Haruhiko Kuroda’s gang decided they needed a little extra push on the economy. Even though Reflation #3 was stirring underneath, and though Japanese authorities always projected confidence about conditions no matter how badly it was doing, officials worried after having gotten nothing out of NIRP earlier in the year something more would be required.

To try and goose inflation expectations some more, the central bankers hit upon the idea of “overshooting.” On September 21, 2016, the BoJ simultaneously announced Yield Curve Control (which we’ve covered) as well as making the following “commitment” beside YCC:

The Bank will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI (all items less fresh food) exceeds the price stability target of 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner.
[emphasis added]


How corrupt that they still referred to bank reserves, the byproduct of every form of QE, including Japan’s QQE, as the “monetary base.” Technically true insofar as mainstream definitions go; however, since said definitions are half a century outdated this amounts to useless trivia intended to mislead the public.

The purpose, in lieu of any actual contribution to the effective monetary base in practice by the global banking system, is to make the public and businesses in it believe in “money printing.” Not see it for themselves, or hear about it directly from someone in the real economy experiencing it, because there isn’t any. Believe it as a matter of “trust.”

If anyone in Japan thinks the central bank is credibly promising to be irresponsible with its printing press, then it is assumed by Economists and central bankers (same thing) that those Japanese people will act today consistent with expectations for inflation tomorrow. Becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, inflation – therefore increased growth, the ultimate object – is achieved.

Year after year, decade after decade, the Japanese people politely but resolutely refuse.

So, the central bank merely changes the phrasing of these promises while doing absolutely nothing different monetarily.

And you’ll probably recognize this Japanese wordsmithing from 2016 in that less than two years later the Federal Reserve would go on to adopt the exact same position. Only, in May 2018 the Fed called its not-brand new commitment “symmetrical” rather than “overshooting.”

Reworded yet again earlier this year in August, today Jay Powell’s crew terms it average inflation targeting.

The point, and the method, is exactly the same in all three; promise to be irresponsible when no central bank has any clue in practice just how. What’s left is this ridiculous and absurd puppet show that never works. Yet, it is copied time and again while being uncritically celebrated in all the financial media as a powerful engine of economic efficacy despite never once achieving anything tangible."
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:35 pm

Screenshot_20210430-113356.png
Screenshot_20210430-113356.png (103.1 KiB) Viewed 516 times
Oh, to be blessed to have been born and invested over Mathjaks time frame...
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:06 pm

Yes and no ….we had the lost decade for stocks , the 2000 bust and 2008 when fuel tanks were full .

Everything looks good in hind-site .. we don’t don’t know until it’s over.

Don’t forget , no time frame stands alone ..it was all well and good the bull arrived but the time frame leading up was one of the worst in history ….I had no money accumulated yet for the bull to act on in 1982 ..

It was a struggle through the 1970 s just living
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:24 pm

The fact is that your investment time frame stands alone in terms of exceptional returns on stocks and bonds...and that experience colors the entire investment industry's perceptions regarding appropriate asset allocation.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:56 pm

doodle wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:24 pm
The fact is that your investment time frame stands alone in terms of exceptional returns on stocks and bonds...and that experience colors the entire investment industry's perceptions regarding appropriate asset allocation.
All that counts is what our own time frames do …

You can back test all the portfolios over all the time frames you want but at the end of the day your results are your results and what your portfolio choice gave you is what you got.

You wouldn’t have liked my time frame so much if you were coming out of the worst of times and were not able to save much.

You can never discount the time frames before and after and what they meant to real live people over their time frame …no time frame stands alone in real life
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:37 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:56 pm
doodle wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:24 pm
The fact is that your investment time frame stands alone in terms of exceptional returns on stocks and bonds...and that experience colors the entire investment industry's perceptions regarding appropriate asset allocation.
All that counts is what our own time frames do …

You can back test all the portfolios over all the time frames you want but at the end of the day your results are your results and what your portfolio choice gave you is what you got.

You wouldn’t have liked my time frame so much if you were coming out of the worst of times and were not able to save much.

You can never discount the time frames before and after and what they meant to real live people over their time frame …no time frame stands alone in real life
I'm not clear on your argument. I'm just making the observation that your investment time period was very kind to bonds and equity. That doesn't mean the future will continue to be that way. Will that change tomorrow or some years down the road...or never? I don't know...but the fact is you got lucky....the investment stars aligned for you and most boomers. The permanent portfolio has a completely different ethos or ideology. It isn't maximizing returns based on one particular time frame...but designed to cope with any time frame. You can make arguments for why it sucks but do you have a better idea for long term wealth preservation? A strategy that will weather wars, plagues, and the rise and fall of civilizations? If you say stocks and bonds than I would argue that your sampling of historical events is very narrow
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by doodle » Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:49 pm

I'd add...America in 1950 and America today in my mind are almost two completely different nations and cultures. If one were to say stocks and bonds performed well coming out of a 1950s America....then I would expect those would be the worst assets going forward considering how radically different our society and culture have become.
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:27 pm

doodle wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:37 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:56 pm
doodle wrote:
Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:24 pm
The fact is that your investment time frame stands alone in terms of exceptional returns on stocks and bonds...and that experience colors the entire investment industry's perceptions regarding appropriate asset allocation.
All that counts is what our own time frames do …

You can back test all the portfolios over all the time frames you want but at the end of the day your results are your results and what your portfolio choice gave you is what you got.

You wouldn’t have liked my time frame so much if you were coming out of the worst of times and were not able to save much.

You can never discount the time frames before and after and what they meant to real live people over their time frame …no time frame stands alone in real life
I'm not clear on your argument. I'm just making the observation that your investment time period was very kind to bonds and equity. That doesn't mean the future will continue to be that way. Will that change tomorrow or some years down the road...or never? I don't know...but the fact is you got lucky....the investment stars aligned for you and most boomers. The permanent portfolio has a completely different ethos or ideology. It isn't maximizing returns based on one particular time frame...but designed to cope with any time frame. You can make arguments for why it sucks but do you have a better idea for long term wealth preservation? A strategy that will weather wars, plagues, and the rise and fall of civilizations? If you say stocks and bonds than I would argue that your sampling of historical events is very narrow
What am saying is that it was all well and good that in 1982 the bull was here …but for those of us regular people living it , it meant nothing …we were coming out of the worst time in financial history …..it was near impossible to save a thing ….so all well and good the party was acting on nothing .

In real life great time frames are usually preceded by poor time frames …..it is the combo of the two acting in concert that determine how effective that good time frame is ….

For me and most regular people the bull meant little until many years in since so few of us had money to invest because the 1970s were so bad for us
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by boglerdude » Wed May 05, 2021 10:12 am

"regular people" dont own manhattan rentals
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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

Post by mathjak107 » Wed May 05, 2021 12:28 pm

This regular person didn’t own those until almost 25 years later after selling my house .

since the time frame being referred to has nothing to do with this time frame your comment is irrelevant .. the 1970s were financially tough and it was hard to find money to invest. It was living hand to mouth with double digit inflation
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