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Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:37 pm
by mathjak107
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:16 am
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:25 am
Sold half of Gld and moved that half in to iau ....
I wasn’t thrilled about having so much in Gld ....unlike stocks and bonds gold can be lost through lots of means and your are only as covered as the custodians ability to cover the event ..
700k is better split between gld and Iau .
The one thing selling Gld off did though is kill the realized gains I had this year as now the trades I did do on some things equal zero gains on the closed positions as Gld wiped them away .
But the gold losses are now way less in the actively running permanent portfolio since Iau is now up .
So 26k in gains were erased in the closed as 26k in losses wiped them out and brought ytd in closed positions to zero.
So gold is now showing down 5300 overall , Tlt still down 55k
Gold losses are less because gold has recovered somewhat, not because you changed investment vehicles, right? I'm not missing something?
Gold is actually down 26k more than my pp reflects ... since I realized the 26k loss and bought Iau with that portion
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:15 pm
by buddtholomew
Doesn’t feel as bad when you are offsetting gains and eliminating taxes.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:38 pm
by mathjak107
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:15 pm
Doesn’t feel as bad when you are offsetting gains and eliminating taxes.
It was in my ira account so taxes are not a factor yet ....but at the end of the day the pp is still in a hole while everything is up.
I have enough carry over in my taxable account from the closing of our LLC to last us years but I don’t have much in equities in it nor any gold ...only about 20% of all the equities are in the taxable account
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:14 am
by buddtholomew
Another lovely opening for Gold and LTT’s...
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:31 am
by mathjak107
Yep , lots of weakness with little end in sight .
You can’t even say the unemployment claims are worse that were released today ...many had the one year unemployment period end in March .....many states required you to reapply for the extension...so we were dropped in March and added back weeks later after being processed
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:47 am
by buddtholomew
Bought some more Gold this morning @ 16.50
Reducing some cash on hand.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:04 am
by mathjak107
Good luck
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:04 am
by mathjak107
So just letting the finished portfolio coast along and see what it brings to the party ..so far it’s been a free loader and did not bring anything to speak of ..it let equities cater the party
718,698 in Tlt
719,264 split between iau and gld
718,223 in shy ,Bil and fdlxx
718,500 split between fidelity contra , voo and vti
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:07 am
by buddtholomew
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:04 am
So just letting the finished portfolio coast along and see what it brings to the party ..so far it’s been a free loader and did not bring anything to speak of ..it let equities cater the party
718,698 in Tlt
719,264 split between iau and gld
718,223 in shy ,Bil and fdlxx
718,500 split between fidelity contra , voo and vti
MJ, you’ve done well managing the pull-back in Gold and TLT. Hopefully it’s smooth sailing from here on out
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:10 am
by mathjak107
Tlt still down about 56k .
Gold still down about 26k but at this point the 26k I had ytd in gains and other trades erased it when I moved to Iau .
The cash side is down 150 bucks
And equities are up nice But only because these equities carried over from my old portfolio so they still have accused gains like contra up 60k,
So last years realized gains were 216k , this year realized gains and losses are a wash as Gld erased those ,and the pp shows up 1.50% or 40,500 because my equities carried over their gains
Had I not made the change I would be up 3-5 % more roughly from the old portfolios so it is a lot of money given up to go this route so far
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:21 pm
by buddtholomew
The good news is you averaged down and had sufficient equities to whether the storm.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:58 pm
by doodle
the pp shows up 1.50% or 40,500 because my equities carried over their gains
So the portfolio as a whole is up 1.5%?
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:41 pm
by mathjak107
Yes and no .. if we are talking about the pp portion ...ytd no .
If I include the 26k I made from other trades and all the profit unrealized in my equities I still have from pre the pp then yes I still show up 1.50% despite the pp losses .
So the whole combo now shows up 1.50% but it is no thanks to the gold , Tlt and cash components of the pp nor is the pp up ytd.
If I set everything back to just measure the pp ytd it is likely down 3-4%
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:58 am
by amdda01
MJ,
Got any moves in store for upcoming week?
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:01 am
by mathjak107
Nope none ...got all the money I want invested in
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:16 am
by doodle
Strong opening...yields are definitely signaling something
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:23 am
by buddtholomew
doodle wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:16 am
Strong opening...yields are definitely signaling something
Possibly in response to lower inflation reading.
Lower yields benefit gold and stocks are enjoying strong earnings.
Complete guess.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:30 am
by mathjak107
Nice jump in Gld and tlt but I am still down ......did recover quite a bit the last week or so but still have tens of thousands to go to be whole
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:32 am
by doodle
In the inflation thread of the bonds topic I posted a very interesting analysis of QE. I seem to be running across quite a number of sound minds in the deflationary camp. One could argue that the asset inflation we have seen is truly a self fulfilling prophecy. It's amazing how well that narrative has held up despite the feds continued failure to hit inflation targets. Definitely worth a watch in my estimation
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
by mathjak107
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:49 am
by Cortopassi
PP for the year is back in the green for me today.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:01 am
by mathjak107
if i include all my gains this year i am up 2.90% but pp still down alone by a little bit
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:54 pm
by amdda01
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
MJ,
So are you gonna wait until you make your money back on TLT - and then transition to a combo TLT/IEF?
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:57 pm
by doodle
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
It's amazing though how profoundly wrong the market has been regarding inflation over more than a decade. In my estimation technology, aging demographics, low birthrates, indebtedness and political gridlock all point to deflation.
Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:59 pm
by mathjak107
amdda01 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:54 pm
mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:52 am
if i had to structure the pp the way i see the odds , i would split the tlt budget in half and put the other half in ief . that would tone tlt down a bit since deflation does not have the same odds as inflation in my limited economic mind .
MJ,
So are you gonna wait until you make your money back on TLT - and then transition to a combo TLT/IEF?
I did some today ....I don’t think we will see Tlt come back to those levels anytime soon..it had a good bounce but I think the potential for a fall again is getting greater with each report