BP and XOM?

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

BP and XOM?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:42 pm

I'm starting to think about a little bargain hunting. Both of these have been battered and have dividends above 8%. Thoughts?
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by pmward » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm

There's definite mean reversion coming at some point to the oil companies. They have been beaten down for so long now. The blood is really in the streets this week in particular. I mean the news can't get much worse for the oil market than it has been recently. And with an 8% dividend, if you're willing to wait it out if it does continue to trend down, it sounds like a good long term value play to me.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:26 pm

XOM closed at $41.98... down from $83.48 (52 week high). Current dividend 8.29%
BP closed at $24.66... down from $45.38 (52 week high). Current dividend 10.22%
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:48 pm

Oil is dead in the long term .....this is like film was to Kodak .


Technology finds more and more ways to increase the already abundant supply as each year demand falls off from alternative sources and technology improving efficiency....throw in natural gas is at an all time high and oils future is dim.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:31 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:48 pm
Oil is dead in the long term .....this is like film was to Kodak .


Technology finds more and more ways to increase the already abundant supply as each year demand falls off from alternative sources and technology improving efficiency....throw in natural gas is at an all time high and oils future is dim.

Both of these companies have been diversifying their activities for years. While it remains a major component of their operations I think both have long realized that the curve of history is bending against oil and they have been moving on.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by mathjak107 » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:37 pm

Meh , I just can’t get excited about oil companies anymore ......I would trade cvx but nothing I would bother buying as a long term hold , but that’s my opinion
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by Tortoise » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:38 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:31 pm
...the curve of history is bending against oil...
<Paging MediumTex to resurrect the "Overshoot" thread>
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:44 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:26 pm
XOM closed at $41.98... down from $83.48 (52 week high). Current dividend 8.29%
BP closed at $24.66... down from $45.38 (52 week high). Current dividend 10.22%
There is a lot of pressure on companies like Exxon to maintain their dividend. And yet, I don't know if that kind of dividend is sustainable.
I'm a long time Chevron shareholder and I nibbled a little recently, but my heart is not in oil companies. It feels somewhat like getting into tobacco companies in 2020.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by vnatale » Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:12 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:48 pm
Oil is dead in the long term .....this is like film was to Kodak .


Technology finds more and more ways to increase the already abundant supply as each year demand falls off from alternative sources and technology improving efficiency....throw in natural gas is at an all time high and oils future is dim.
What happened to "Peak Oil"??!!!

VInny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by pmward » Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:17 pm

Oil is not going anywhere anytime soon. Like every other commodity it goes through it's phases. Currently, it's out of favor, but eventually prices will go back up, and so will the companies.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:56 am

it has been 15 years and oil company returns have gone from bad to worse . just look at the 15 year return for xom ... 1.43% oxy 1.36% cvx who i think is the best of the lot 5.75% .... s&p 500 almost 8%



i would sooner invest in the s&p 500. i don't see the point in taking on both market risk and individual company risk in this sector unless it was a short term speculation .
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:17 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:12 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:48 pm
Oil is dead in the long term .....this is like film was to Kodak .


Technology finds more and more ways to increase the already abundant supply as each year demand falls off from alternative sources and technology improving efficiency....throw in natural gas is at an all time high and oils future is dim.
What happened to "Peak Oil"??!!!

VInny
Maybe ocho knows more about this, but AFAIK peak oil is... "happening." Oil fields like Ghawar (Saudi Arabia) produce less oil now that the easily recoverable oil is gone. EROEI has been going down for a while. Without fracking and tar sands (what I think mathjak is referring to as "technology") production would be down worldwide. Fracking and the tar sands are resource intensive, and I've seen quite a bit of commentary suggesting that without low interest rate loans they wouldn't be in business. *shrug*
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: BP and XOM?

Post by Kbg » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:41 pm

BPY or BPYU are getting very interesting as of late.
Post Reply