Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:22 pm

User avatar
europeanwizard
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 171
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:06 am
Location: The Netherlands, Europe

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by europeanwizard » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:49 am

Fun times :)

My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:03 am

Wow. Bitcoin and gold are really hard to figure out. Impossible to figure out.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:26 am

it is such a speculation ..... i dabble in gbtc from time to time .
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by Tortoise » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:43 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:03 am
Wow. Bitcoin and gold are really hard to figure out. Impossible to figure out.
Toilet paper ETF, anyone?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:32 pm

Not worth the paper it’s quilted on.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by bitcoininthevp » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am

Would have liked for some Bitcoin magic at this time. But it seems that BTC is being pulled down like other assets during this deflationary period.

My understanding is the same thing happened to gold in 2008 crisis. And is happening to gold now?

It would appear to me that gold and bitcoin are poised for huge rallies when the dust settles. Anyone have good resources on this "dust settling period" based on historical anecdotes? How long will asset prices be driven down before all the money printing that is happening reverses the deflation into inflation?
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:37 pm

europeanwizard wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:49 am
Fun times :)

My VP is about 4% of my PP, and 2% is in Bitcoin. I don't worry about it, really. It's just there in case Bitcoin turns out to be a huge winner in the future.
Go to portfoliovisualizer.com, and compare GLD to 3.67% GBTC and the rest CASH. You get a two "portfolios" that have about the same standard deviation, and the same correlation to the US stock market... about zero. What does that backtest mean? Possibly nothing as far as future performance goes, but it tells me this - micro-size your bitcoin allocation. Whatever size you'd devote to a "normal" asset shrink the bitcoin position size by a factor of 27.

If GBTC gets to $4 (early 2019 levels) I might put 0.5% of the porfolio into it. But it would have to be $4 or lower. I'd really be a buyer at $0.40. I'm not waiting to pull the trigger, in other words. I have alerts set.
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3483
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm

GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
User avatar
europeanwizard
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 171
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:06 am
Location: The Netherlands, Europe

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by europeanwizard » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:47 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:37 pm
Possibly nothing as far as future performance goes, but it tells me this - micro-size your bitcoin allocation.
Compared to my PP, I've got about 3% bitcoin. Enough for me right now ;)
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:52 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:37 pm
If GBTC gets to $4 (early 2019 levels) I might put 0.5% of the porfolio into it. But it would have to be $4 or lower. I'd really be a buyer at $0.40. I'm not waiting to pull the trigger, in other words. I have alerts set.
You should also consider the premium of GBTC to BTC which can vary wildly. In these markets the premium should be small which is good for a buy. During rallies the premium can be 100%. See: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/disc ... ium_to_nav
User avatar
bitcoininthevp
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 465
Joined: Fri Sep 25, 2015 8:30 pm

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
Not a surprise that the smaller more speculative asset gets hit more. Not so much informative about YTD numbers.

More curious as to how gold and bitcoin will behave moving through this crisis, which seems to be deflationary, and transitioning into what I see as an inevitable highly inflationary environment. AKA does this deflationary period last weeks, months, 18 months? You all might know more about deflationary situations like this have played out in the past?
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Bitcoin loses half of its value in two-day plunge

Post by pmward » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:58 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:04 pm
GLD is currently down not quite 2% YTD, Bitcoin is down about 17% YTD.
Not a surprise that the smaller more speculative asset gets hit more. Not so much informative about YTD numbers.

More curious as to how gold and bitcoin will behave moving through this crisis, which seems to be deflationary, and transitioning into what I see as an inevitable highly inflationary environment. AKA does this deflationary period last weeks, months, 18 months? You all might know more about deflationary situations like this have played out in the past?
Inflation has a lag. We aren't going to switch from deflation to inflation overnight. Inflation likely isn't really possible to become a problem for at least a couple years. Right now, they are still way behind the ball, the "inflation" they are generating isn't enough to even keep things stable.
Post Reply