Is this the best website/forum for me?

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

All I see in that picture is hibernating evil.

Just this morning I caught side of one of the neighborhood ferals setting up to take a shit in my freshly turned garden plot. So I set down my glass of wine (I am a degenerate) and grabbed my go-cup* and opened the door. It knew what it was doing was heinous, so as soon as it saw motion from my direction it took off like a shot. It's a constant battle.

*I keep a glass of water handy for splashing on the ferals when they're in my garden, on my porch, etc.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:02 pm All I see in that picture is hibernating evil.

Just this morning I caught side of one of the neighborhood ferals setting up to take a shit in my freshly turned garden plot. So I set down my glass of wine (I am a degenerate) and grabbed my go-cup* and opened the door. It knew what it was doing was heinous, so as soon as it saw motion from my direction it took off like a shot. It's a constant battle.

*I keep a glass of water handy for splashing on the ferals when they're in my garden, on my porch, etc.
I don't know what I have in my neighborhood.

I used to have ferrets. Their food is about the most expensive pet food you can buy.

I've not had ferrets for years but I still had some leftover food and I try to never let anything go to waste.

Tried to get my cats to eat it but they would not.

A few weeks ago I decided to put it in a bowl in my garage. And, every few days I have to refill the bowl. I don't know who is coming into my garage to eat it.

On a somewhat related note After I bought some fresh food on Tuesday I put the excess in boxes which I then put in my basement. And, then on the top box, which had an opening to its contents, I put some of that ferret food on top as an offering to any mice in my basement to keep them not interested in what WAS in the box.

But it's not getting eaten so I guess the murders of a few mice that my cats committed in the house over the winter has ended up with the mice sending out messages to all other neighborhood mice to avoid all places in this house and to go seek safer houses to search for food.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

My elderly neighbor also puts food out for the ferals. I don't necessarily want her to get coronavirus and die, because otherwise she's fairly pleasant, but that would probably cause the cats to starve and/or move out.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Smith1776
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by Smith1776 »

Okay, so it looks like a simpler answer is this is the best website/forum for you if you love cats.

This one is mine.


89688454_10101243251541966_3720365487146663936_n.jpg
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by Xan »

It's also the best website/forum for those like Krieg and me who are not cat fans.

Please, if you do have cats, keep them indoors.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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Smith1776 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:23 pm Okay, so it looks like a simpler answer is this is the best website/forum for you if you love cats.

This one is mine.



89688454_10101243251541966_3720365487146663936_n.jpg
I pronounce it a classic cat beauty!!!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by vnatale »

Xan wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm It's also the best website/forum for those like Krieg and me who are not cat fans.

Please, if you do have cats, keep them indoors.
I say keep them indoors ALL THE TIME!

I bought my house in 1982. Brought my, at the time, all-time favorite cat with me.

In the two years after then this is what happened to her.

Came home with a huge gash. Quick recovery.

My German Shepherd had her in his mouth and was shaking her around like a rag doll. Double hernia. Another quick recovery.

Disappears for a few days. I'm going out on a Sunday night. She's at my back step and purring. I'm thrilled she's back. But then I look and she's missing an eye! Take her to vet and the vet tells me that cats have an unbelievable tolerance for pain.

Finally she gets hit by a car in front of my house and dies.

All that in the space of just two short years!

A neighbor was with me when we discovered her dead, and I immediately said to him, "That's it! My cats are never again going outside."

I've since read that indoor cats live four to five years longer than those who go out.

And the vet bills have gone way, way down. The only things I've had since 1984 are worms (from catching mice in the house), a major flea outbreak in 1996 (don't know how the fleas got in), another flea outbreak after I foolishly brought in a stray for about a half hour, teeth cleanings, annual checkup visits, and the dreaded kidney breakdown which has killed several of my cats.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by CT-Scott »

Well, I guess I have my question answered as to whether this forum is overly-moderated. It didn't take long for this thread to get derailed into a discussion about cats, and the mods haven't stepped in to delete any of those comments. Maybe I'll be wishing for *more* moderation later. ;)
Smith1776 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:07 pm 1) You will find a better investment philosophy here. Period. Nobody on this forum starts threads like this one, for instance.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=308819
Can you (or anyone) elaborate on this one?

Are you saying that someone following the PP wouldn't have lost as much as that guy did? Are you criticizing the "don't worry, no one could have predicted this...just keep staying the course" attitude that is common in the replies on that thread? Or are you talking about something different?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by Vil »

My mom has already 3 generations of cats running around (7 in total).
My dad and me are having a battle that we cannot win. It's like 300 vs the Xerxes army. Hope, they find a vaccine for this virus faster, so we can return back to the 'big city' .. One of the most annoying things I find in cats is that I can't predict in any means what do they have in their minds and what their next step would be. Maybe I do not understand deeply their mentality (and maybe its for my personal good).
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by shekels »

CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 am Well, I guess I have my question answered as to whether this forum is overly-moderated. It didn't take long for this thread to get derailed into a discussion about cats, and the mods haven't stepped in to delete any of those comments. Maybe I'll be wishing for *more* moderation later. ;)
Smith1776 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:07 pm 1) You will find a better investment philosophy here. Period. Nobody on this forum starts threads like this one, for instance.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=308819
Can you (or anyone) elaborate on this one?

Are you saying that someone following the PP wouldn't have lost as much as that guy did? Are you criticizing the "don't worry, no one could have predicted this...just keep staying the course" attitude that is common in the replies on that thread? Or are you talking about something different?
CATS. Here is a pic of the cat I want.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by shekels »

CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 am Well, I guess I have my question answered as to whether this forum is overly-moderated. It didn't take long for this thread to get derailed into a discussion about cats, and the mods haven't stepped in to delete any of those comments. Maybe I'll be wishing for *more* moderation later. ;)
Smith1776 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:07 pm 1) You will find a better investment philosophy here. Period. Nobody on this forum starts threads like this one, for instance.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=308819
Can you (or anyone) elaborate on this one?

Are you saying that someone following the PP wouldn't have lost as much as that guy did? Are you criticizing the "don't worry, no one could have predicted this...just keep staying the course" attitude that is common in the replies on that thread? Or are you talking about something different?
Welcome, I applaud you for keeping up with all those post in your thread on the other forum.
I admit I only read the first and last page.
I dislike typing the same thing over and over until it's a page long and may not even be read.

To me PP is a philosophy that can be discussed, improved depend on your factors (age, commitments etc.)
PP has a VP factor, So what is Stay the course with a VP.
PP is a Buy and Hold strategy. With a caveat of VP, so the equity traders may " not stay the course "

On final thought, Today in my Life and situation 60/40 is not a Conservative Portfolio for me.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:15 am Are you saying that someone following the PP wouldn't have lost as much as that guy did? Are you criticizing the "don't worry, no one could have predicted this...just keep staying the course" attitude that is common in the replies on that thread? Or are you talking about something different?
Your first instinct is spot on!

Yeah, around here during this recent market crisis, what have we been doing? Discussing the Coronoavirus and talking about cats. O0

You don't see those kinds of massive losses and panic like in that thread.

"First off prayers and best wishes to all those physically or financially traumatized by our current crisis."
(Only concerning ourselves with the financial side of this quote obviously.)

"Bill Bernstein’s words keep me up at night."

"I am beating myself up..."

"I know it's hard but try to stay positive and stay the course!"

Absolutely not trying to make denigrating remarks about people who have lost money, but I just want to point out that there have been no such posts of the above kind here on this forum.

Craig used to say "Us Permanent Portfolio guys are whistling past a graveyard."
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by CT-Scott »

Smith1776 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:53 pmYour first instinct is spot on!

Yeah, around here during this recent market crisis, what have we been doing? Discussing the Coronoavirus and talking about cats. O0

You don't see those kinds of massive losses and panic like in that thread.
Gotcha! Thanks for clarifying.

OK, so there are probably variations based on how specific people align their fund options to match a PP, but can you (or anyone) give me a very rough approximation of the percentage that someone with a PP would be up/down YTD versus someone with say a 50/50 stock/bonds allocation (let's say something like VTSAX/VBTLX, or their non-Admiral Share equivalents)?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by Smith1776 »

I don’t know about YTD, but I am down 9.5% since the highs of February. I’d give you YTD if I was on my desktop, but am on mobile.

This is with a Canadian PP using:

1) Vanguard global value factor etf (VVL)
2) Purpose Investments gold ETF (KILO.B)
3) Canadian long treasury etf (ZFL)
4) Canadian short treasury etf (ZFS)

I have a few slightly different PP implementations across a few different accounts. They are trailing basically in lockstep with each other so far.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by CT-Scott »

Thanks.

Looking at PRPFX, that seems to be down a little under 20% for the year, and a little over 20% since 2/21 (when the Coronavirus crash started). Are there potentially some really high dividends that offset those losses? Or is PRPFX just a really poor take on Harry Browne's PP?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:05 pm Thanks.

Looking at PRPFX, that seems to be down a little under 20% for the year, and a little over 20% since 2/21 (when the Coronavirus crash started). Are there potentially some really high dividends that offset those losses? Or is PRPFX just a really poor take on Harry Browne's PP?
PRPFX doesn't reflect what ended up being the final incarnation of Browne's ideas. It's got the same philosophical roots as the PP, but it's geared towards inflation, has significantly different implementation, has a relatively high MER, and is a little outmoded.

PRPFX still holds Swiss Francs, for instance. The Swiss Francs were originally held because that currency was backed by gold. But that gold backing has now been severed, so there's no real reason to still have them.

I'd pass on PRPFX personally and just go with the simple 4 x 25 setup.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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Smith1776 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:09 pmI'd pass on PRPFX personally and just go with the simple 4 x 25 setup.
Sorry if this is better explained already somewhere in these forums (if so, and you or anyone else can provide a link, that would be appreciated), but I'm curious how one can practically apply a PP or Golden Butterfly Portfolio (I haven't read up much on that yet, but I believe it's a popular thing here) inside of a typical 401k plan. My guess is that you could do the stock and bonds (and maybe "similar to cash" via a Stable Value fund). But you wouldn't find any sort of gold-equivalent inside of most 401k offerings. So then, is the expectation that you have to meet that 25% portion outside of a 401k?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:58 pm
Smith1776 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:09 pmI'd pass on PRPFX personally and just go with the simple 4 x 25 setup.
Sorry if this is better explained already somewhere in these forums (if so, and you or anyone else can provide a link, that would be appreciated), but I'm curious how one can practically apply a PP or Golden Butterfly Portfolio (I haven't read up much on that yet, but I believe it's a popular thing here) inside of a typical 401k plan. My guess is that you could do the stock and bonds (and maybe "similar to cash" via a Stable Value fund). But you wouldn't find any sort of gold-equivalent inside of most 401k offerings. So then, is the expectation that you have to meet that 25% portion outside of a 401k?
As a Canadian I have absolutely no knowledge of the mechanics of 401k plans and the like.

Is anyone on this forum who is more knowledgeable able to chime in?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:58 pm
Smith1776 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:09 pmI'd pass on PRPFX personally and just go with the simple 4 x 25 setup.
Sorry if this is better explained already somewhere in these forums (if so, and you or anyone else can provide a link, that would be appreciated), but I'm curious how one can practically apply a PP or Golden Butterfly Portfolio (I haven't read up much on that yet, but I believe it's a popular thing here) inside of a typical 401k plan. My guess is that you could do the stock and bonds (and maybe "similar to cash" via a Stable Value fund). But you wouldn't find any sort of gold-equivalent inside of most 401k offerings. So then, is the expectation that you have to meet that 25% portion outside of a 401k?
There has been tons of discussion here on what you ask. And, there have been many opinions offered. I don't believe that there is any consensus. Just as there does not seem to be a consensus of which of the four assets best belong in:

1) outside of retirement account
2) Traditional retirement plan (I'm assuming that is yours?)
3) Roth retirement plan

3 different tax treatments so different theories on how each of the four investments do or do not fit in each of the above three.

Vinny
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:58 pm
Smith1776 wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:09 pmI'd pass on PRPFX personally and just go with the simple 4 x 25 setup.
Sorry if this is better explained already somewhere in these forums (if so, and you or anyone else can provide a link, that would be appreciated), but I'm curious how one can practically apply a PP or Golden Butterfly Portfolio (I haven't read up much on that yet, but I believe it's a popular thing here) inside of a typical 401k plan. My guess is that you could do the stock and bonds (and maybe "similar to cash" via a Stable Value fund). But you wouldn't find any sort of gold-equivalent inside of most 401k offerings. So then, is the expectation that you have to meet that 25% portion outside of a 401k?
Some 401ks, like the one I have, allow you to have a self-directed brokerage portion where you can buy whatever stocks and ETFs that you want. In that portion, I can buy gold ETFs such as IAU or SGOL.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

Post by CT-Scott »

One thing I hadn't thought to ask directly until now...

Seeing as PP was invented (?) by Harry Browne, and he was a known libertarian...does it follow that a large percentage of the PP community are also libertarian-leaning?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:50 pm One thing I hadn't thought to ask directly until now...

Seeing as PP was invented (?) by Harry Browne, and he was a known libertarian...does it follow that a large percentage of the PP community are also libertarian-leaning?
That's probably a safe supposition. To be fair, the title of libertarian is pretty broad. I consider myself a libertarian, but I'm downright leftist compared to the truly hardcore.

For instance, I agree with Milton Friedman's assertion that regulation is desirable in cases where there are significant negative externalities in a marketplace (tragedy of the commons, environmental destruction, etc.). And Friedman was pretty much the most free-market oriented economist of the 20th century.

CT-Scott, would you consider yourself libertarian leaning?
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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Smith1776 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:19 pmCT-Scott, would you consider yourself libertarian leaning?
I think I touched on this in my original post in this thread, but I can be pretty verbose, so I'll try not to be too offended if you (or others) skimmed past some of that. Yes, I definitely am. In fact, I sort of describe my philosophy as "Christian Anarchist." I'm not as well-read on libertarian ideologies as many others, so I probably can't name names as to who's philosophy I'm most aligned with. The dot-point history lesson and "fun facts" about me would probably be something like:

- Entrepeneurial from a young age (would buy a bunch of candy at my local drug store and sell it in grade school for a profit, despite it being against "the rules")
- Anti-imperialism / anti-war
- Learned about, and became a big fan of, Ron Paul during the 2008 presidential campaign
- Read about Harry Browne's PP sometime during that timeframe and held PRPFX in one of my 401k accounts for a while (but it didn't do very well for me as far as I can tell - I intend to start a thread asking why that was)
- Became a daily reader of Lew Rockwell's blog for a while (but don't follow it much these days)
- Learned about Stephan Kinsella, whose stance on "intellectual property" not being real property, I agree with (which I take extra pride in, because I'm a software developer and a "creative", so I'm not "supposed to" be anti-IP)

I've probably left out some important "fun facts."
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:42 pm
Smith1776 wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:19 pmCT-Scott, would you consider yourself libertarian leaning?
I think I touched on this in my original post in this thread, but I can be pretty verbose, so I'll try not to be too offended if you (or others) skimmed past some of that. Yes, I definitely am. In fact, I sort of describe my philosophy as "Christian Anarchist." I'm not as well-read on libertarian ideologies as many others, so I probably can't name names as to who's philosophy I'm most aligned with. The dot-point history lesson and "fun facts" about me would probably be something like:

- Entrepeneurial from a young age (would buy a bunch of candy at my local drug store and sell it in grade school for a profit, despite it being against "the rules")
- Anti-imperialism / anti-war
- Learned about, and became a big fan of, Ron Paul during the 2008 presidential campaign
- Read about Harry Browne's PP sometime during that timeframe and held PRPFX in one of my 401k accounts for a while (but it didn't do very well for me as far as I can tell - I intend to start a thread asking why that was)
- Became a daily reader of Lew Rockwell's blog for a while (but don't follow it much these days)
- Learned about Stephan Kinsella, whose stance on "intellectual property" not being real property, I agree with (which I take extra pride in, because I'm a software developer and a "creative", so I'm not "supposed to" be anti-IP)

I've probably left out some important "fun facts."
My apologies. Yes, I do recall from your original post now.

You will fit right in here, and I hope you've found a warm welcome so far. I was a big supporter of Ron Paul myself, too.

I'm a software developer as well. I've primarily been educated in web development using Ruby on Rails, React, and Express technologies. I am currently learning cyber security. Maybe we can collaborate on some fun stuff sometime.
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Re: Is this the best website/forum for me?

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CT-Scott wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:48 am
Anyway, please advise if you think these forums would be a good place for me, or if you know of other forums that could be a better match. Thanks!
Welcome Scott. I have only one question. What is the PP, never heard of it? ;)
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