A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Dec 25, 2020 1:24 pm
Much of my portfolio is trend. In 2020 I had a CAGR of 17%, and my maximum drawdown was 3.5% (monthly statistic, not daily). I understand that trendless markets are bad for trendfollowing in general, but everything worked great this years so I'm not complaining. Having buy and hold gold, miners, and Bitcoin helped, and my main trend strategy (GPM-COMP) spent a lot of time in TLT which was good.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Sat Feb 13, 2021 3:19 pm
I’d like to “bump” doodle’s post by quoting it here instead of linking to a new-ish thread with a horrible subject title.
Who knows, it could still be a banner year for stocks. However, what’s getting to me is the people borrowing money to throw it at equities.
I started trimming my vp stocks last week, beginning with the silly stuff, the moonshots. I’m thinking about begrudgingly taking gains (high class problem, i know) in stocks that I don’t want to trim like Square and Paypal, because they don’t pay dividends.
pp index funds will be left unchanged.
doodle wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:12 am
Grantham piece worth reading....GME is only another piece of evidence to support the thesis that we are witnessing another massive bubble forming. Who knows how much further this one can expand before it eventually pops...
https://www.gmo.com/americas/research- ... t-dance/
and whatcha’s video:
RIP Marcello Gandini
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:25 pm
Forgot one thing: I have occasionally said that I didn’t want to sell vp stocks until after we’ve seen some irrational exuberance. If it weren’t for Elon Musk and Roaring Kitty & Reddit, maybe I’d still be in the mindset I was in in the earlier posts in this thread. But maybe this melt up is the exuberance I’ve been waiting for. Too much too soon.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Vil
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by Vil » Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:52 am
dualstow wrote: ↑Sat Feb 13, 2021 4:25 pm
Elon Musk
Its getting crazy those days, and presence of Elon is getting obnoxiously annoying (he better focus his attention to Falcon 9
), even though the reaction of the masses can be summed up as:
“A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.”
― Bertrand Russel
Only sure thing those days is that LTTs are in downtrend hahaha. It very well might be this year is 'their' year (in any case
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:36 am
Vil wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:52 am
...
“A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.”
― Bertrand Russel
Only sure thing those days is that LTTs are in downtrend hahaha. It very well might be this year is 'their' year (in any case
)
Ah, you’re quoting Bertrand Russell. A man after my own heart. Love that guy, especially his
Conquest of Happiness.
But what if the clever man is just posting a picture of a dogecoin mascot and saying “you’re welcome.” Not much to translate.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Vil
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by Vil » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:07 am
True, not much to translate and that's the problem. So while his utterly veiled posts can move the market it simply means there is critical amount of idiots that consider speculation as easy thing. And as we know speculation is an art of its own. What I am saying does not contradict too much with the bubbly nature of stock market right now; still PP might be a good way to sit on the sidelines until ship decides which way to go and all the wannabe speculators get deep-sixed ..
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Vil
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by Vil » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:13 am
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:21 am
I am considering balancing TLT back up, if that's any indication to people of it continuing to drop or changing course.
Haven't checked for LTTs, but actually on mid term treasuries there are multiple bullish divergences on both momentum and volume based indicators/oscillators... and we're right on the bottom channel line from the descending channel.. for LTTs though the things might be slightly more exacerbated though. Certainly not an investment advice (and given we're in the VP section), but a swing-play on the long side might prove fruitful..
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Kriegsspiel
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by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:49 am
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:21 am
I am considering balancing TLT back up, if that's any indication to people of it continuing to drop or changing course.
I'm in the same boat, but I'm just nudging mine up a bit at a time. I'm just over 21% right now, so not that out of wack.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:30 pm
Vil wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:07 am
deep-sixed ..
Your English is far better than you think!
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Vil
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by Vil » Fri Feb 19, 2021 11:50 am
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:30 pm
Your English is far better than you think!
Complete offtopic: enjoy
this one if you haven't already ..