Using some of Clive's ideas

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Tue Jul 31, 2012 3:39 pm

1.58% drop today - fingers crossed that it dips a few more % before I go all in.  I don't think I've ever rooted this hard before for the short side of a position...  ;D
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:58 am

Stock Order: ERX-DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SHS
Status Filled at $45.068
Action Buy
Quantity 401 Shares
Order Date 08/02/2012, 10:51:25 AM ET

Stock Order: TMF-DIREXION SHS ETF TR DAILY 20+ YR TREASURY BULL 3X SHS
Status Filled at $87.586
Action Buy
Quantity 206 Shares
Order Date 08/02/2012, 10:52:13 AM ET

I'm in!  Let's see what happens now...
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Fri Aug 03, 2012 12:20 pm

Good luck and keep us posted.  I am still considering it with a small portion of my funds. I think until the Fed starts raising rates, which they have said won't be until 2014 (could go later), this strategy will work.
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:52 am

Hi Clacy, would you mind testing with 50/50 TMF and UWTI with the quarterly rebalances?  Reub suggested this in the other thread.  UWTI is crude x3.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:25 am

UWTI is not currently available on etfreplay, but I have requested that it be added. 
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Thu Aug 16, 2012 10:50 am

Thanks Clive. I had not really plotted the two on a chart like that.  That is concerning.  I feel like much of the ERX/TMF performance is probably due to stimulus activities from the central banks in the past 3 years. 
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Thu Aug 16, 2012 6:18 pm

Clive wrote: More me messing around with HTML5 than anything particularly informative : Video message for Storm
Clive, I tried to view this in Chrome, IE9, Firefox, and even Safari on an iPad and I only get a black box.  In Chrome I get a black box with a play button but clicking the play button does nothing.

Is there something really concerning I should know about?  My portfolio was up about 2% but now it's down by 2.31%.  ERX is up 14.35% but TMF has been taking a beating (as expected) and is down 18.99%.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:06 pm

Clive wrote: The charts for the 1x energy and LTT have a nice inverse correlation, whilst the charts for the 3x's are more correlated (even though one was up +50% and the other down -50% over the period I looked at (around a year of history).

That's about all I said in the video file (you might be able to download (or view) it directly via a direct link to the video http://www.jfholdings.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/storm.webm )
Ah, that worked beautifully.  I think you have the wrong ticker though on your 3x... You used ERY (3x Energy Bear) instead of ERX.  Had me scared there for a bit; would you mind running it again with the ERX/TMF?
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:13 pm

Here we go, with the correct ticker:

Image
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:37 am

Storm I joined you today with a small position (5% of my investable monies) in ERX/TMF.

That is unfortunate for you because I'm sure this strategy will draw down now that I've entered  ;)
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:11 am

clacy wrote: Storm I joined you today with a small position (5% of my investable monies) in ERX/TMF.

That is unfortunate for you because I'm sure this strategy will draw down now that I've entered  ;)
Congrats!  Actually yesterday was a good day to buy; the portfolio just passed into the green again, so most likely you timed the TMF rally perfectly.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Thu Sep 13, 2012 2:02 pm

Up 4.59% so far... When the Bernanke speaketh, oil does pretty well...
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
t-bear52
Associate Member
Associate Member
Posts: 38
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 6:24 am

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by t-bear52 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 6:21 pm

As an aside to current thread, another one of Clive's ideas that resonated with me was his idea of a Timber REIT portfolio.
Nov 10 2011 made a small VP investment in his idea of 50% TLT the rest split between PCL, RYN, and WY. Up almost 18%. Way better than when I committed to PP earlier this year when gold was so high. Finally back in positive territory with gold and my PP up 3.77%. Back to the point, I really like Clive's Timber Portfolio! :)  
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming!! :)
Last edited by t-bear52 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Sat Sep 15, 2012 10:05 am

Bernanke and Draghi have basically signaled that this strategy SHOULD continue to work for the near future (several months).

QE is good for risk assets, including LTT's and leverage seems to be worth the borrowing costs.
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Fri Jan 04, 2013 9:32 am

This section of my VP has been hovering between down 6% and break even the last 90 days or so.  I'm thinking of dumping these positions and putting it back in the PP.  Yet again, VP teaches me humility and to just stick the money in the PP and don't worry about losing it.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:59 am

Storm wrote: This section of my VP has been hovering between down 6% and break even the last 90 days or so.  I'm thinking of dumping these positions and putting it back in the PP.  Yet again, VP teaches me humility and to just stick the money in the PP and don't worry about losing it.
Yes, this goes to show that by the time an edge shows up in backtesting, it is probably too late to implement it for a profit.
User avatar
6 Iron
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 339
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:12 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by 6 Iron » Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:22 pm

Thanks so much for posting the follow-up. I admire this intellectual honesty, and had forgotten how intrigued I was when you were initially discussing this.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by MachineGhost » Sat Jan 05, 2013 10:38 am

Storm wrote: This section of my VP has been hovering between down 6% and break even the last 90 days or so.  I'm thinking of dumping these positions and putting it back in the PP.  Yet again, VP teaches me humility and to just stick the money in the PP and don't worry about losing it.
What was the exact strategy?
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Sat Jan 05, 2013 6:14 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
Storm wrote: This section of my VP has been hovering between down 6% and break even the last 90 days or so.  I'm thinking of dumping these positions and putting it back in the PP.  Yet again, VP teaches me humility and to just stick the money in the PP and don't worry about losing it.
What was the exact strategy?
50% ERX, 50% TMF, rebalance quarterly.  I've only had these positions 4 months now, so honestly I probably haven't given it a chance to work yet.  I may hold onto them a while longer.  The market has been anything but normal the last quarter due to congressional failure aka the fiscal cliff.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Alanw
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 279
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:05 am

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Alanw » Sat Jan 05, 2013 6:51 pm

Storm,
What makes for a normal market?  Just curious.
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:37 am

I closed out these positions flat after ~120 days.  Too much volatility.  My VP days are over - If I would have stuck with PP I'd probably be up 2-3%, but instead I'm just happy to not have a loss.
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:23 am

I'm out of the position as well.  I'm sure now it will go straight up  :)
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3158
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Reub » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:25 am

Clive, you are missed! Would you consider a return?
clacy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1128
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:16 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by clacy » Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:12 pm

Agreed, I wish Clive would come back. He still actively posts on bogleheads and the AIM investorshub board.  He wasn't a complete believer in the PP during some time periods.  That's a good thing, IMO.  Dissenting opinions make for healthy debate.
User avatar
Storm
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1652
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:04 pm

Re: Using some of Clive's ideas

Post by Storm » Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:35 pm

clacy wrote: I'm out of the position as well.  I'm sure now it will go straight up  :)
I'm equally confident that my closing the position is a great buy indicator!  :D
"I came here for financial advice, but I've ended up with a bunch of shave soaps and apparently am about to start eating sardines.  Not that I'm complaining, of course." -ZedThou
Post Reply