Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

A place to talk about speculative investing ideas for the optional Variable Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:29 am

Better than pretty good. Excellent.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:29 am
Better than pretty good. Excellent.
I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:49 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am
I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
Now you can buy it back instead of buying that house.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:49 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am
I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
Now you can buy it back instead of buying that house.
As soon as the crisis is past, I may do that.
Right now the premiums are insane so I probably would lose money even at $100 lower spot prices.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:21 am

Good point. And yet I keep pathetically checking whether coins are in stock, like a rat in a Skinner box.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:07 am

This is my YTD with one piece of my money - guess you can see the stages of being conservative, then becoming berserker.. short sales bans afterwards .. Not that bad, but I hate those games.
Those days EU FX-ers are playing a lot on USD/NOK FX pair (and are keeping busy the EU brokers ;D ) .. guess you are pretty much unaware of what NOK is.. but see the FX graphic.. crazy crazy times ;D
Attachments
Blah.jpg
Blah.jpg (14.15 KiB) Viewed 8563 times
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:17 am

Norwegian Krone?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:19 am

Exactly. Not aware why the graphic looks so vertical in the recent days, but indeed its quite vertical.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm

I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.

Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:27 pm

Ha! They are. Which makes you Black Philip. O0 Live deliciously, Ocho. Live deliciously.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
shekels
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 520
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:01 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by shekels » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:51 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.

Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
Good for you getting out while the time was right..
I have been looking over the site you posted and it is very interesting to add an additional layer.
A lot of opinions out there in the investing world and most are just wrong at the timing.
I like it and will be tailoring it a little for me.
I am holding off on stocks though I think this thing could drop further maybe 20 percent more in a short time.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
SPX < 1800
Gold < 1300
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while.
There were several support (then resistance) levels passed and many guys are now filling the web with their predictions that if S&P cuts 2300 there is no reason to receive any positive signal from anyone. Of course technical charting is BS, given what we are experiencing too. IMHO, one have to be quite an optimist to think we've reached anywhere near bottom... Yesterday, Italy announced it will halt all of its non-strategic production (i.e. shutting down maybe 80-90% of factories). Unfortunately, it might be that we see this type of production halts in other places around the globe. So, no (or greatly reduced) production -> stocks plummet, that's my overly simplified logic.

Personally, outside my hardcore PP, I do not own any single piece of long stock right now (exited 25-26-27 Feb, can't recall exactly) ..
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:17 pm

From my GEM blog -

The GEM will be in bonds on April 1, 2020, unless the S&P 500 can increase 23% by then. That doesn't seem likely, what with the increasing exponentially increasing numbers of sick in the USA and around the world. If it happens, I'll tell you.

Take stock of where you are. If you've been taken down by natural processes from a 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60, maybe you could consider just holding on at that level, especially if you're young and have decades before you need the money. Maybe if you were 100% equities, and now you're 70%, maybe sell some so you get down below 50%. Sell down to your personal "sleep at night" level.

Keep some perspective - If you've been invested since 2009, when the S&P 500 bottomed at "666" eleven years ago, even at the close on Friday 3/20/2020 you've had a 322% total gain. Take your loot and be thankful!

Another thing you can do now... don't rebalance your portfolio yet, turn off automatic dividend reinvestment, pay them out as cash. Put all new 401(k) or IRA payroll deduction money to bonds or cash. Then, when GEM goes risk-on again, rebalance your portfolio at that moment, after the crisis passes and we're back to growth.

I've been as shocked as anyone at how poorly totally safe-haven bonds like Intermediate U.S. Treasuries (IEI) have done in the short term. I've been told that it has been forced redemptions by large hedge funds blowing up. I've taken hits on those, also Aggregate Bonds (AGG, SCHZ), and Municipals (MUB). Even gold (GLD) has been hit by forced redemptions. "WT...?" I've been tempted to go to cash, but have resisted the urge.

Putting in another commercial for Paul Novell (and he doesn't pay me), Economic Pulse got me out on 2/28/2020. GEM is slower. Frankly, the $35 per month I pay for the newsletter is almost the best money I have ever spent, second only to the engagement ring for me wife.

One of the voices is listen to is John Hussman, and he thinks fair value on the S&P 500 is 1100-ish. For a long while, he's been predicting a market crack-up, and it finally took a pandemic "pin" to pop the bubble. If that's so, we have a long way to fall yet. And he thinks losing 2/3 would not be an extreme loss, it could overshoot on the downside. Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital says very similar things. Lance Roberts says look for a sucker rally, then more declines.

Remember - the difference between an 80% loss and a 90% loss is not 10%. It's taking an 80% loss, and then ANOTHER 50% loss on top of that! The mathematics of loss. Both people start with 100 beans, one is left with 20, the other 10. The one with 10 has half of the number of beans as the one with 20. Right?

Most of all, protect your health. That you can't buy with money. Don't go out. Get groceries delivered or use curbside pick-up. Suffer through home haircuts. Brush your teeth and floss, and skip the dentist for now. The optometrist can wait. Chiropractor can wait.

I think in 2021 we're back to growth, after a vaccine is out. I think 2020 is a lost cause. Whether US or International equities... who knows? GEM will decide.
HappyMan
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:01 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:05 pm

Ochotona,

Well said!

Did not know you work as a psychologist part-time. ;-)
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:45 pm

Can I haz this for Xmas? Please? The early 1933 to early 1937 run? Almost tripled in four years using moving average trading, and that does not include dividends. More than tripled with dividends. Doubled in two years. If I double from where I am now, I will retire. Absolutely, positively.

depression.PNG
depression.PNG (188.6 KiB) Viewed 9569 times
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:42 pm

What % do you have in stocks, Ocho?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:54 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:42 pm
What % do you have in stocks, Ocho?
Zero % net.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:59 pm

What does "net" mean there? That you do own some still?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:55 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:59 pm
What does "net" mean there? That you do own some still?
My wife has stocks at TIAA. I don't touch that. I bought an equal amount of TAIL ETF to protect her. So net zero. Long and short.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:58 pm

The GEM portfolio is in Bonds for April 2020 (AGG, BND, SCHZ).

And by now I can confirm that Paul Novell's SPY-COMP model got out of equities a month ago, on 2/28/2020. It's faster out, faster in.
HappyMan
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 132
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:01 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:30 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:58 pm
The GEM portfolio is in Bonds for April 2020 (AGG, BND, SCHZ).

And by now I can confirm that Paul Novell's SPY-COMP model got out of equities a month ago, on 2/28/2020. It's faster out, faster in.
Thanks for the update!
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:57 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:37 am
ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:25 am
Nomura was quoted in ZH today: "The steep rally in global equities looks to us like a “bear squeeze” rally, powered by exits from bearish positions that investors accumulated during the downturn". That makes more sense to me than investors are looking forward to the economy re-opening. That's just nonsense.
Oh I'm sure that has a lot to do with it. The purpose of a "bull trap" rally isn't just to fake out the bulls, it's also to fake out the bears. But if we get a weekly close over that 2850 area where the first leg bounced, we have to really start considering the fact that we may be wrong. Bear markets do many things, but one thing they do *NOT* ever do is have a "bear squeeze" 4th wave rally go higher than the bottom of the first leg down, and the first leg bounced at 2850. If we close above the 2850 we can say we are for sure not in a 4th wave rally in a downward impulse wave, we instead were in a 3 phase downward corrective trend, and are now in the first leg of a brand spanking new up trend. We are literally dancing on the line in the sand as we speak. Anytime you're playing a direction you also have to look at what level in the opposite direction proves you to be wrong, and 2850 is it. I'm literally sitting with my finger on the trigger to either buy or sell in the coming days depending on how this resolves.
I'd be pretty annoyed if I have to be risk-on for May. I think I'd do exactly what I did in 2019, go in very light with TAA equities, and instead use the TAA two bond strategies at my disposal.

One TAA Bond portfolio is a 6 mo momentum contest between eight different bond ETFs, you hold the top three for the month. The other is composed of riskier bonds ETFs, and the risk switch is the same as the TAA equity risk switch.

1/3 to each bond strategy, 1/3 to a TAA equity portfolio with four ETFs. That'a lot of diversification across eleven quite different ETFs and three different strategies. A pain for sure, but this market is pretty confusing.

I'm very thankful for no-fee trading, and I am getting mo' and bettah price improvements at Fidelity.

But still 15% gold. I'm not counting the gold above.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:13 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:57 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:37 am
ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:25 am
Nomura was quoted in ZH today: "The steep rally in global equities looks to us like a “bear squeeze” rally, powered by exits from bearish positions that investors accumulated during the downturn". That makes more sense to me than investors are looking forward to the economy re-opening. That's just nonsense.
Oh I'm sure that has a lot to do with it. The purpose of a "bull trap" rally isn't just to fake out the bulls, it's also to fake out the bears. But if we get a weekly close over that 2850 area where the first leg bounced, we have to really start considering the fact that we may be wrong. Bear markets do many things, but one thing they do *NOT* ever do is have a "bear squeeze" 4th wave rally go higher than the bottom of the first leg down, and the first leg bounced at 2850. If we close above the 2850 we can say we are for sure not in a 4th wave rally in a downward impulse wave, we instead were in a 3 phase downward corrective trend, and are now in the first leg of a brand spanking new up trend. We are literally dancing on the line in the sand as we speak. Anytime you're playing a direction you also have to look at what level in the opposite direction proves you to be wrong, and 2850 is it. I'm literally sitting with my finger on the trigger to either buy or sell in the coming days depending on how this resolves.
I'd be pretty annoyed if I have to be risk-on for May. I think I'd do exactly what I did in 2019, go in very light with TAA equities, and instead use the TAA two bond strategies at my disposal.

One TAA Bond portfolio is a 6 mo momentum contest between eight different bond ETFs, you hold the top three for the month. The other is composed of riskier bonds ETFs, and the risk switch is the same as the TAA equity risk switch.

1/3 to each bond strategy, 1/3 to a TAA equity portfolio with four ETFs. That'a lot of diversification across eleven quite different ETFs and three different strategies. A pain for sure, but this market is pretty confusing.

I'm very thankful for no-fee trading, and I am getting mo' and bettah price improvements at Fidelity.
Yeah I hear you, as I'm sitting on a wad of cash right now that I would be very annoyed I did not deploy earlier if we do start a new bull trend. So I'm in the same boat as you, though I do still have some equity exposure at least. If we do break above 2850, I will look to start scaling in long on the second wave pull back... but I would absolutely keep my stop tight on those fresh stock positions to cut bait early if we do break back down.

If my bet pays off and we do get that 5th wave down, I may start slowly dipping my toes back in the water at 2350 instead of waiting for 2100 as I had been planning. I'll have to wait to see what the charts say at that time, but the momentum of this rally does cause me to also question my downside targets even if I am directionally correct. If we do get that 5th leg down, that will likely be it. From there we will most likely either start a 3 wave corrective structure to the upside prior to the next phase down, or a fresh bull market (which is the most likely outcome I see at this time, barring new emerging info of course). Either way, I want to be aggressively long if/when we do bottom the potential 5th wave.

This is a very tricky market to trade. The big league pitching is really hard to hit. The markets do seem to be fading a bit mid day, and the Q's are looking especially weak. Relative strength, rate of change, and macd are also starting to tilt down the last couple hours on the hourly chart. Also, my "canary in the coal mine" that I always speak about, small caps, are fading worse than the large cap indexes, after starting the day with strength. So maybe... just maybe... this foreshadowing the start of a rollover? It does look like buyers are starting to hesitate a bit at least. We now just need something, anything, to embolden the sellers again.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:06 pm

Wowie, what a reversal today. That will take a lot of steam out of the bulls wings. I may have also raised a bit more cash at the close seeing the fact that the 4% up open was completely wiped out intraday. Worst case scenario? I have to buy back in a couple hundred points higher. That reversal definitely helped strengthen my resolve a bit in the short term.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:29 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:06 pm
That will take a lot of steam out of the bulls wings.
You get the mixed metaphor award!
Post Reply