Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

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ochotona
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:35 pm

I got an email 30 min before market close advising me to sell. Emotionally very easy. Push the button, logoff.

But I knew it was coming based on the moving average Paul uses.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:49 pm

Impressive!

How often those e-mails come?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by TrickPony » Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:28 am

I guess I will just wait to the end of the month and switch to bonds...I probably will be switching at the exact time bonds crater and stocks take off. Sometimes mechanical investing sucks!
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:53 pm

HappyMan wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:49 pm
Impressive!

How often those e-mails come?
Weekly. Last day of the month also Fridays. But not on Friday when the last week of the month is that week.

I think the real-world applicability of the original idea behind this thread has been proven. I was 55% equities when the storm hit, 13% gold, 12% cash, rest bonds mostly short and intermediate term US Treasuries (everyone here knows I'm allergic to TLT, though I do have a few shares). So half trend-following, the other half sort-of the other three HBPP components.

When the storm hit, the bonds and gold zoomed, the cash was just cash, and then on 2/28 I pulled the rip cord. And I have a rule for getting back in. And even if the author of the newsletter were to stop sending them, I know enough about the method to keep on improvising my way through. He's very transparent with his paid members. It's Dual Momentum with embellishments and many variations to fit all tastes. And no, I don't get kickbacks.

I can't call it fun - but it wasn't a disaster. The airbags went off. The bike helmet worked.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:57 pm

InsuranceGuy wrote:
Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:00 pm
25% Momentum switching between the Nasdaq 100 and Cash based on the Philosophical Economics GT timing using S&P 500 and the Unemployement.

Very much like Paul Novell's SPY-UI model. Use SPY 6 mo moving average and the 12 mo moving average of the unemployment rate as a risk-on, risk-off.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:28 pm

Ochotona,

What is your rule for getting back in?

Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:29 pm

HappyMan wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:28 pm
Ochotona,

What is your rule for getting back in?

Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
I can't give signals away, it's not my intellectual property
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:35 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:29 pm
HappyMan wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:28 pm
Ochotona,

What is your rule for getting back in?

Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
I can't give signals away, it's not my intellectual property
So it is indeed you on bogleheads.
Congratulations!
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by HappyMan » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:41 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:29 pm
HappyMan wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:28 pm
Ochotona,

What is your rule for getting back in?

Keep us posted on when the newsletter suggests getting out of cash.
I can't give signals away, it's not my intellectual property
No need. Very much like you did this time. Tell about a signal after enough time passed.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:13 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 am
By now I don't think it's a violation of IP to say that Paul Novell's newsletter got me out of equities at the end of February. Every TAA strategy is out or will be out at their next trading date. I was only 55% equities to begin with the moment the dam broke, so I am down 3.3% right now. I think that's a huge win.

If gold pukes down 25% like it did in 2008, I'm a buyer in the $1050 - $1250 range again.
I saw your post in the BH thread that tech linked to. Maybe I'll have to go re-read it, I thought you told them you sold 90% of your stocks. I do remember you saying it was a cool million that you saved from the debacle, so prost to you!
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:16 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 am
I see HPBB is down about 5% from Feb 19, that's super. I'm very happy for all of the HBPP investors.

By now I don't think it's a violation of IP to say that Paul Novell's newsletter got me out of equities at the end of February. Every TAA strategy is out or will be out at their next trading date. I was only 55% equities to begin with the moment the dam broke, so I am down 3.3% right now. I think that's a huge win.

If gold pukes down 25% like it did in 2008, I'm a buyer in the $1050 - $1250 range again.
Neat. I was a bit over 55% equities and did not pull a rip cord at the end of February, and am down 17-18% from the peak.
Not the end of the world, but 3.3% would feel like Christmas morning.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:16 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:16 am
ochotona wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:31 am
I see HPBB is down about 5% from Feb 19, that's super. I'm very happy for all of the HBPP investors.

By now I don't think it's a violation of IP to say that Paul Novell's newsletter got me out of equities at the end of February. Every TAA strategy is out or will be out at their next trading date. I was only 55% equities to begin with the moment the dam broke, so I am down 3.3% right now. I think that's a huge win.

If gold pukes down 25% like it did in 2008, I'm a buyer in the $1050 - $1250 range again.
Neat. I was a bit over 55% equities and did not pull a rip cord at the end of February, and am down 17-18% from the peak.
Not the end of the world, but 3.3% would feel like Christmas morning.
I haven't checked from the peak but as of a short time ago I'm up 14.5% in the last 12 months and 0.7% YTD.
Pretty good, considering.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:29 am

Better than pretty good. Excellent.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:29 am
Better than pretty good. Excellent.
I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:49 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am
I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
Now you can buy it back instead of buying that house.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:49 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am
I got lucky in selling about 12% of my gold this year at higher prices for reasons completely unrelated to the plague.
Now you can buy it back instead of buying that house.
As soon as the crisis is past, I may do that.
Right now the premiums are insane so I probably would lose money even at $100 lower spot prices.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:21 am

Good point. And yet I keep pathetically checking whether coins are in stock, like a rat in a Skinner box.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:07 am

This is my YTD with one piece of my money - guess you can see the stages of being conservative, then becoming berserker.. short sales bans afterwards .. Not that bad, but I hate those games.
Those days EU FX-ers are playing a lot on USD/NOK FX pair (and are keeping busy the EU brokers ;D ) .. guess you are pretty much unaware of what NOK is.. but see the FX graphic.. crazy crazy times ;D
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:17 am

Norwegian Krone?
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:19 am

Exactly. Not aware why the graphic looks so vertical in the recent days, but indeed its quite vertical.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm

I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.

Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by dualstow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:27 pm

Ha! They are. Which makes you Black Philip. O0 Live deliciously, Ocho. Live deliciously.
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by shekels » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:51 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while. Congratulations to all, you've all done well in your own practices.

Those Bogleheads are a pretty dour crew. They're like the Puritans of Massachusetts Bay Colony.
Good for you getting out while the time was right..
I have been looking over the site you posted and it is very interesting to add an additional layer.
A lot of opinions out there in the investing world and most are just wrong at the timing.
I like it and will be tailoring it a little for me.
I am holding off on stocks though I think this thing could drop further maybe 20 percent more in a short time.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
SPX < 1800
Gold < 1300
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by Vil » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:13 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:24 pm
I'm already thinking about getting back into equities.. I would not jump the signals, but I'm just getting psyched... but it could be a while.
There were several support (then resistance) levels passed and many guys are now filling the web with their predictions that if S&P cuts 2300 there is no reason to receive any positive signal from anyone. Of course technical charting is BS, given what we are experiencing too. IMHO, one have to be quite an optimist to think we've reached anywhere near bottom... Yesterday, Italy announced it will halt all of its non-strategic production (i.e. shutting down maybe 80-90% of factories). Unfortunately, it might be that we see this type of production halts in other places around the globe. So, no (or greatly reduced) production -> stocks plummet, that's my overly simplified logic.

Personally, outside my hardcore PP, I do not own any single piece of long stock right now (exited 25-26-27 Feb, can't recall exactly) ..
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Re: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo

Post by ochotona » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:17 pm

From my GEM blog -

The GEM will be in bonds on April 1, 2020, unless the S&P 500 can increase 23% by then. That doesn't seem likely, what with the increasing exponentially increasing numbers of sick in the USA and around the world. If it happens, I'll tell you.

Take stock of where you are. If you've been taken down by natural processes from a 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60, maybe you could consider just holding on at that level, especially if you're young and have decades before you need the money. Maybe if you were 100% equities, and now you're 70%, maybe sell some so you get down below 50%. Sell down to your personal "sleep at night" level.

Keep some perspective - If you've been invested since 2009, when the S&P 500 bottomed at "666" eleven years ago, even at the close on Friday 3/20/2020 you've had a 322% total gain. Take your loot and be thankful!

Another thing you can do now... don't rebalance your portfolio yet, turn off automatic dividend reinvestment, pay them out as cash. Put all new 401(k) or IRA payroll deduction money to bonds or cash. Then, when GEM goes risk-on again, rebalance your portfolio at that moment, after the crisis passes and we're back to growth.

I've been as shocked as anyone at how poorly totally safe-haven bonds like Intermediate U.S. Treasuries (IEI) have done in the short term. I've been told that it has been forced redemptions by large hedge funds blowing up. I've taken hits on those, also Aggregate Bonds (AGG, SCHZ), and Municipals (MUB). Even gold (GLD) has been hit by forced redemptions. "WT...?" I've been tempted to go to cash, but have resisted the urge.

Putting in another commercial for Paul Novell (and he doesn't pay me), Economic Pulse got me out on 2/28/2020. GEM is slower. Frankly, the $35 per month I pay for the newsletter is almost the best money I have ever spent, second only to the engagement ring for me wife.

One of the voices is listen to is John Hussman, and he thinks fair value on the S&P 500 is 1100-ish. For a long while, he's been predicting a market crack-up, and it finally took a pandemic "pin" to pop the bubble. If that's so, we have a long way to fall yet. And he thinks losing 2/3 would not be an extreme loss, it could overshoot on the downside. Tavi Costa at Crescat Capital says very similar things. Lance Roberts says look for a sucker rally, then more declines.

Remember - the difference between an 80% loss and a 90% loss is not 10%. It's taking an 80% loss, and then ANOTHER 50% loss on top of that! The mathematics of loss. Both people start with 100 beans, one is left with 20, the other 10. The one with 10 has half of the number of beans as the one with 20. Right?

Most of all, protect your health. That you can't buy with money. Don't go out. Get groceries delivered or use curbside pick-up. Suffer through home haircuts. Brush your teeth and floss, and skip the dentist for now. The optometrist can wait. Chiropractor can wait.

I think in 2021 we're back to growth, after a vaccine is out. I think 2020 is a lost cause. Whether US or International equities... who knows? GEM will decide.
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