tomfoolery wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:20 pm
flyingpylon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:03 pm
True the Vote says "Election law experts have long held that the margin of election fraud is 3 – 5%. Nearly 25% of elections are decided by less than 2%."
https://truethevote.org/
I have no personal information, did not visit the website, and have not vetted any of it.
I apply a common sense test to everything I critically analyze. Is it reasonable to think that 3% to 5% of votes are fraudulent? Yes, that's very reasonable.
Are 25% of elections decided by less than 2%? I don't know but that's hard to fake. You can show the sources easily. So I don't need to apply my common sense test as much to this one, but if I did, then yes, it seems reasonable that 75% of elections are decided with a wider than 2% margin. So 25% would be less than 2%.
Which means 1/4 of elections have fraud materially impacting the vote. I would believe it.
As I said earlier, the fraud can come from both sides, but if we look at it objectively:
1- Democrats really really hate Orangeman
2- Democrats are smarter than Republicans, by their own admission
3- Democrats are more college educated than Republicans
4- Students in college learn to cheat, either by doing first hand or by witnessing it
5- Some small percentage of students in college only get by via cheating
6- If college educated intelligent people are more likely to perpetuate a successful fraud/cheat, then even if both sides are cheating, the one side will have a cheating advantage that will outweigh the other. Who's going to be better at forging a paper ballot? Someone who went to college and either personally cheated or had friends who cheated, or someone who is a plumber? Even if it's only 5% better, that's statistically significant such that if both sides cheat, and I think both sides do cheat, one side will have a 5% advantage relative the other.
7- The USPS is unionized which favors democrats and they are the ones handling ballots. There's very likely at least one postal worker who said fuck this and threw out some ballots. Even if I have no proof, it's more likely that at least one postal worker did it, than zero postal workers did it.
8- Ballots are generally counted in the state capitol, and major cities tend to be left-leaning even if the state is red.
9- The ability to cheat is greater with mail in ballots than in-person
10- More mail in ballots support Biden than Trump
Can anyone dispute any of those 10 points? Because if all 10 points are true, it seems to me that fraud would be more supportive on net of Biden. My bias is I want Trump to win, but I think I'd be making the same argument if the tables were turned somehow since it seems like the logical argument.
Let's try to set aside whatever raving and ranting Orangeman is doing on twitter or whatever kind of lawsuits he's filing or whatever he's asking states to do about this. Because that has
nothing to do with whether fraud did or did not occur and which side it was biased towards on net. Let's ignore how much of a liar Orangeman is because that has
nothing to do with whether fraud occurred. The fraud did or did not occur external to the actions and personality and twats made by Orangeman.
Let's focus on those 10 points, and if any of them are in dispute, I'm willing to concede that my total point is wrong.
We must first decide on the facts of the case before we venture in analysis or opinion. I opine that if the above facts are true, it supports the theory that more fraudulent ballots were cast towards Biden.
I will say that Vinny brings up a fantastic counterpoint, that doesn't counter any of my points directly, but he said if the cheating occurred to favor Biden, wouldn't it also have occurred to favor Congressional seats?
When I first read that, I didn't connect in my head that they were the same ballots. I separated them, and thought, well they wouldn't want to be obvious about the cheating so they only cheated on one. However, I now realize, of course, it's a single ballot, so someone cheating for Biden would have had to put a republican for senate if Biden is winning for that state but a republican is winning congress.
UNLESS, perhaps there's write-ins or lesser candidates who took the votes away from the Democratic congress people. For example:
Fictional state:
1,005,000 Votes Biden
1,000,000 Votes Trump
1,000,000 Votes Democratic Congressman
1,005,000 Votes Republican Congressman
For this to shake up exactly like this, IF there was fraud, then the fraudsters should have also voted democrat down the line on their fraud ballot. That makes some sense.
Unless there's legitimate voters who vote for Biden for president but Republican for congress. Then those legitimate voters would have counter-acted the fraud votes for Biden that also voted Democrat congressman.
I personally have a good friend who voted for Biden in a swing state but voted Republican congress. This person is a republican, but abhores Orangeman. And abhores their inlaws who support Orangeman and post ridiculous shit on social media. So, to shut them all up, this person voted Biden for president but Republican down the line.
This person would counteract a fraud ballot that was democrat down the line, such that the republican congress could still win, but the fraud votes were all democrat down the line.
So Vinny, I concede at first, I didn't understand your concept here, and then I thought more about it and it made sense, but on further analysis doesn't hold as much weight. I assume you agree that Orangeman is hated by many, republicans included, then it makes sense some republicans would vote against him but still vote for congress along red party lines.