Sound and fury

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doodle
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Sound and fury

Post by doodle » Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:33 am

I'm curious, what are we all after here? Are we looking for validation? Companionship? Trying to make sense of our world? Stave off boredom? What is the underlying psychological drive that is compelling all of us to have discussions here where we continually attempt to one up one another and invalidate each other's perspectives? Months of dialogue have passed and I don't see anything much has changed..no one's perspectives seemed to have opened or shifted one iota. It has been a while lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. The internet has opened up our ability to connect with people from all walks of life but that has ironically in the case of this place seemed to entrench us even more into our own perspectives. Unlike meeting real humans, travel, flesh and blood experiences...these virtual social outlets seem useless at evoking any deeper insights or revelations.

Just an observation.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:52 am

doodle wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:33 am
I'm curious, what are we all after here? Are we looking for validation? Companionship? Trying to make sense of our world? Stave off boredom? What is the underlying psychological drive that is compelling all of us to have discussions here where we continually attempt to one up one another and invalidate each other's perspectives? Months of dialogue have passed and I don't see anything much has changed..no one's perspectives seemed to have opened or shifted one iota. It has been a while lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. The internet has opened up our ability to connect with people from all walks of life but that has ironically in the case of this place seemed to entrench us even more into our own perspectives. Unlike meeting real humans, travel, flesh and blood experiences...these virtual social outlets seem useless at evoking any deeper insights or revelations.

Just an observation.
For me, curiosity and learning. My observation is that 'one upping' is frequently in the eyes of the beholder. Sometimes it is just being unable to be clear about ones position, thus easily misunderstood. Look at the conversation Vinny and I had about greed. I thought I was clear, but in Vinny's eyes I was not; thus I did a poor job of communicating. Being willing to hear each others perspectives is great. I have little expectation that I'm going to change anyone elses perspective. Maybe, just a little, God only knows. And that is probably a good thing. 8)
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:33 am

You are pretty much spot on, doodle. I came here in 2014 for info on the PP, first and foremost. I don't think I strayed much from that other than some odds and ends about health things, then obviously for a while we've gotten into politics.

I continue to do so to make sure I see other people's perspectives that are different from mine. Some are mild differences, and some are much stronger, but all serve to widen my perspective.

Like just a few nights ago my wife and I had a discussion with my kids (16 and 21) about pronouns. I had NO idea this position was so strongly held by younger people, or at least my kids. It opened my eyes. Sure, my wife and I looked at each other a few times incredulously about the whole issue, but you know , just like a lot of other things, if someone wants to be called "they" vs he or she, who cares? Not ending the world.

**And I have a strong desire for people to like me, so this forum is not really good for that! tech, ehh, I could take or leave his liking me. sophie giving me shit gives me more heartburn. :D
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:08 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:33 am
You are pretty much spot on, doodle. I came here in 2014 for info on the PP, first and foremost. I don't think I strayed much from that other than some odds and ends about health things, then obviously for a while we've gotten into politics.

I continue to do so to make sure I see other people's perspectives that are different from mine. Some are mild differences, and some are much stronger, but all serve to widen my perspective.

Like just a few nights ago my wife and I had a discussion with my kids (16 and 21) about pronouns. I had NO idea this position was so strongly held by younger people, or at least my kids. It opened my eyes. Sure, my wife and I looked at each other a few times incredulously about the whole issue, but you know , just like a lot of other things, if someone wants to be called "they" vs he or she, who cares? Not ending the world.

**And I have a strong desire for people to like me, so this forum is not really good for that! tech, ehh, I could take or leave his liking me. sophie giving me shit gives me more heartburn. :D
Obviously you do not work for a non-profit, like I do. There these same positions held by your kids are held by people in their 50s and 60s! So much that we were encouraged to put in our email signatures our favored pronouns so as to show our support for those who place such a priority on their pronouns. I was probably one of the few of my coworkers who did not think this issue is of vast importance. I will give you one guess whether or not I complied with the pronoun exhortation regarding my email signature.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:09 am

I do find it extremely valuable to read others' perspectives. It definitely always results in widening mine.

Plus, the Permanent Tooth Care and Gum Care Regime Topic caused me to radically change my prior existing regime.

Being alerted to the existence of many books I'd not have otherwise been aware of led me to buying many of them.

I could add to the list of positives for me but I will at those.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Vil » Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:25 am

Honestly, it's only greed that brings me here. Greed of fiscal and informational type! Do not underestimate the number of people (me inclusive) that are just reading and quite rarely posting. So, in short - keep posting guys, there are some avid readers waiting out there ! ;D
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Maddy » Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:18 am

I've asked this question before but have never received an answer:

If this forum is so objectionable or useless to the non-libertarian members of this forum, why do those people keep coming back here? If the philosophical orientation and dominant viewpoint expressed here is so reprehensible as to actually cause a member to post in a venomous, out-of-control tirade that that the conservative members of this forum be "mercilessly crushed," why does he continue to reappear like clockwork? Why are we subjected to melodramatic "I'm leaving here forever" displays, only to have the aggrieved individuals to return and make the same dramatic exit again?
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Xan » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:12 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:33 am
You are pretty much spot on, doodle. I came here in 2014 for info on the PP, first and foremost. I don't think I strayed much from that other than some odds and ends about health things, then obviously for a while we've gotten into politics.

I continue to do so to make sure I see other people's perspectives that are different from mine. Some are mild differences, and some are much stronger, but all serve to widen my perspective.

Like just a few nights ago my wife and I had a discussion with my kids (16 and 21) about pronouns. I had NO idea this position was so strongly held by younger people, or at least my kids. It opened my eyes. Sure, my wife and I looked at each other a few times incredulously about the whole issue, but you know , just like a lot of other things, if someone wants to be called "they" vs he or she, who cares? Not ending the world.

**And I have a strong desire for people to like me, so this forum is not really good for that! tech, ehh, I could take or leave his liking me. sophie giving me shit gives me more heartburn. :D
I'm curious why you assume that whatever they're doing must be right and that you're the one who's wrong and needs to change. You're the one with the much bigger perspective.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by SomeDude » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:36 am

Maddy wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:18 am
I've asked this question before but have never received an answer:

If this forum is so objectionable or useless to the non-libertarian members of this forum, why do those people keep coming back here? If the philosophical orientation and dominant viewpoint expressed here is so reprehensible as to actually cause a member to post in a venomous, out-of-control tirade that that the conservative members of this forum be "mercilessly crushed," why does he continue to reappear like clockwork? Why are we subjected to melodramatic "I'm leaving here forever" displays, only to have the aggrieved individuals to return and make the same dramatic exit again?
I for one get very distressed when people say they're going to leave unless others stop sharing their opinions. Emotional terrorism works on me.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by pmward » Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:12 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:07 am
It feels to me like this is supposed to be a libertarian forum, originating from the teachings of the 2000 Libertarian Presidential candidate, based on the economic concepts of sound money, which is antithetical to modern monetary theory, of which MMT is the basis of leftist ideology.
I would like to see where it says gyroscopic investing is or even should be a hard right libertarian only forum?
tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:07 am
What I don’t understand is why anyone who believes in MMT or big government would want to invest in gold?
Modern monetary theory. Gold is a potent diversifier. I don't hold gold for typical gold bug end of the world doomsday type scenarios, I hold gold because it is one of, if not the most uncorrelated asset to the other assets I hold.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by doodle » Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:33 am


It feels to me like this is supposed to be a libertarian forum, originating from the teachings of the 2000 Libertarian Presidential candidate, based on the economic concepts of sound money, which is antithetical to modern monetary theory, of which MMT is the basis of leftist ideology.

What I don’t understand is why anyone who believes in MMT or big government would want to invest in gold, and if you don’t want to invest in gold, then why would this hypothetical person want to invest in the PP? Is PP4You?

Just a couple things..

1. Based on my poll, most people that have responded don't follow the PP.

2. MMT / MMR - I think are useful tools to helping people understand the reality of our monetary system. When inflstionista austrians were shouting about the inevitable Bernankes hyperinflation just around the corner (including myself) and treasuries were at 4.5% the smart money was making money on more than a decade of declining interest rates and no appreciable inflation.

3. As evidenced in Libertarians of Reddit thread, the brand of libertarianism here is a special level of extreme. I don't even think Mr. Browne would ascribe to many of the ideas promoted here.

4. Historically this forum used to entertain way more diversity of thoughts / perspectives. My leftward lean has had to intensify to counteract what I see as an extreme imbalance here.

5. Libertarianism has become a religion to many here. Everything is so simple...just eliminate government and all of the worlds problems will go away. And if any problems exist, well, there is nothing to be done about them. Unlike good science, people here start with a theory and then cherry pick evidence to fit their theories premise. Anything that doesn't line up is summarily dismissed.
Simonjester wrote:
"eliminate government" is the most extreme interpretation of the libertarian view, i strongly suspect that most if not all would say ... explore and experiment with non government options when ever possible .. use what works .. i see/hear realist options where you read extremest uncompromising views. the difference between political philosophy (eliminating government) and political realism (experimenting with limiting government based on the philosophy ) seems to elude the fix it with more government crowd.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Xan » Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:30 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:18 am
the basis of the PP is a distrust of government
Just interjecting here a bit: I'm not sure this is true. Harry's earlier investment philosophy of 100% precious metals was based on a distrust of government. He later admitted he got lucky with that strategy as far as timing.

I think the PP is a great example of a thinker with a particular philosophy being very pragmatic. Would someone with a complete distrust in government advocating holding 50% of your wealth in government promises? I think it was probably really hard for him to come to the realization that that's actually a very good idea. And it takes a really humble man to realize that his particular philosophy and preferences aren't necessarily what run the world.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by pmward » Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:31 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:18 am
the basis of the PP is a distrust of government
Source? There is a reason why Harry kept his investing and political radio shows separate. The PP is not about government. The PP is about having a diversified portfolio that can weather all market conditions and never falls flat on it's face. The PP is not called the libertarian portfolio.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:36 am

Hmmmm. 50% of the PP is in paper money or promises to deliver paper money... seems pretty government neutral as far as portfolios are concerned.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by doodle » Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:11 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:43 am
doodle wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 10:33 am

2. MMT / MMR - I think are useful tools to helping people understand the reality of our monetary system. When inflstionista austrians were shouting about the inevitable Bernankes hyperinflation just around the corner (including myself) and treasuries were at 4.5% the smart money was making money on more than a decade of declining interest rates and no appreciable inflation.
Yeah, there’s still no inflation. According to CPI. In spite of housing being 2x to 3x the price they were a decade ago and my apartment rent doubling over that time period, and wages have been flat. And in spite of housing being half of the average persons expenses. No inflation. Because they say there’s no inflation. So there isn’t.
I too am not happy about housing...but to blame that entirely on the government? As far as inflation we haven't seen it in other items...gas, food, clothing etc. I'd say HGTV probably has as much to do with this housing insanity...cultural notions of what a house should look like...ridiculous square footage allotments per person, bathrooms out the wazooo. NIMBYism fighting against increased housing density projects. A lack of skilled people working in the trades. Tariffs and trade wars driving up raw material prices. A lack of new industrial processes being incorporated into building dwellings..which goes back to HGTV and cultural pressures having so much influence on what we think a house should look like. The cultural notion that housing is a good investment and large blocks of housing being snapped up by large corporate investment pools. Very low interest rates and people willing to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy a crapshack.

There are lots of reasons behind this stupid housing bubble.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by doodle » Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:21 pm

Buy a piece of land and build your own house...half the cost in a house is labor anyways. You can get plans online for a few hundred bucks. Probably will have to be something simple. Maybe 800 square feet. Might have to sub out some of the plumbing, electrical, foundation...but it isn't rocket science. People have built their own homes for millions of years...using stone axes most of the time. I'm sure you can manage with all this fancy gadgetry and information we have today. Buy a piece of land outside of town where you don't have to worry about codes and inspections. You want to get away from the government anyways...so that's a good first step. All your whining about housing is coming across as very snowflake liberal. Man up!

Orrrrrr....move out to the 1/2 of the country that hasn't seen this home price insanity. You can buy an amazing piece of property in west virginia or arkansas for a fraction of what other areas cost....and you can live around people who are self sufficient...although they might be cooking meth to make ends meet. But you're a libertarian and they are providing a service, so no problem...they entrepreneurial!
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by doodle » Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:41 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:26 pm
doodle wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:11 pm

large blocks of housing being snapped up by large corporate investment pools. Very low interest rates and people willing to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy a crapshack.
Government sets the interest rate. Which is what drives those two factors.
But the bond vigilantes?

Yes, I agree. But you are assuming a victim mentality. Like a minority first gen. immigrant child born into poverty with a crack addicted mother and a father in prison.

If you gonna talk the talk then walk the walk. With as much as you post around here your life is obviously pretty cushy. You aren't scraping by trying to survive and crashing into bed at night after your third job too tired to brush your teeth. You should have more than enough time and energy to learn how to build something...take a class at a community college if you need some hands on skills. You have the resources to buy land....or as I said, pick up and move somewhere cheaper.

Your ancestors had to grow their own food, haul their own water, fend of Indian attacks, and build a house with their bare hands using an axe. I think you can handle this.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by doodle » Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:45 pm

Here is some inspiration Tom! If this guy can do it, anyone can!



https://youtu.be/R6Ocu5XSc7k
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by SomeDude » Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:14 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:26 pm
doodle wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:11 pm

large blocks of housing being snapped up by large corporate investment pools. Very low interest rates and people willing to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy a crapshack.
Government sets the interest rate. Which is what drives those two factors.
nu-uh, it's the federal reserve, unless you think the people who control the fed also place our "elected" officials in power. I mean....that's a kook conspiracy theory if I ever heard one.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by Tortoise » Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:21 pm

doodle wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:21 pm
Orrrrrr....move out to the 1/2 of the country that hasn't seen this home price insanity. You can buy an amazing piece of property in west virginia or arkansas for a fraction of what other areas cost....and you can live around people who are self sufficient...although they might be cooking meth to make ends meet. But you're a libertarian and they are providing a service, so no problem...they entrepreneurial!
Why you gotta pick on Mountaineer? :)
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by vnatale » Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:26 pm

Maddy wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:18 am

I've asked this question before but have never received an answer:

If this forum is so objectionable or useless to the non-libertarian members of this forum, why do those people keep coming back here? If the philosophical orientation and dominant viewpoint expressed here is so reprehensible as to actually cause a member to post in a venomous, out-of-control tirade that that the conservative members of this forum be "mercilessly crushed," why does he continue to reappear like clockwork? Why are we subjected to melodramatic "I'm leaving here forever" displays, only to have the aggrieved individuals to return and make the same dramatic exit again?


I guess you will have to wait for Mr. Libertarian666 to re-appear again to directly ask him that question and hope that he sees it and does not have you on "Ignore".

Vinny
Simonjester wrote:
tec didn't give a lot of detail on why he was leaving but i got no indication it was a hissy fit, or caused by post drama..
i could be wrong but my impression was he took off to do a "sphere of influence" thing, pursue changing things he has control over vs arguing politics with closed minds, which is a waste of time (it sharpens ones thinking, can be entertaining, and perhaps informative to lurkers ) but mostly non productive from a liveitarian perspective..
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by pmward » Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:27 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:48 am

I’ve attributed HBs PP design to distrust of government. If you trusted the government, then you’d not need gold, you’d trust they’ll do the right thing with the currency.

As far as good being less correlated with other assets, it’s less correlated in the direction of the government screwing with the money supply. If you fully trusted the government, then gold would be the opposite of what you’d want to hold, since you’d trust the government to have strong fiscal policies leading to strong stock market returns and cash/bonds would be safe.

I have a strong distrust for the government but I still do the PP because while I distrust the government, I trust that they’ll screw with the money supply to prop up the stock market. I trust that it will cause bubbles over time and rebalancing will make me money.

Imagine you had a drug addict step son. And there was a betting place that let you gamble on whether he’d relapse and steal from you again, you’d take that bed, because you “trust” that he will be dishonest. So while I don’t trust the government to do the right thing, I trust that I know roughly what they’ll do and the PP will give me the best and smoothest return, adjusted for risk.

If you distrust the government, going 100% gold still seems goofy. There’s a collectibles tax on it. There’s high volatility in a single asset. You still have to buy groceries with dollars so there’s an inefficiency of it. I don’t concede that holding cash and bonds means you trust the government, just that economic realities offer no alternative.

Your view is skewed in a few important ways.

1) Distrust of government is ONE reason to own gold, but not the only one.

2) It's wrong to assume that people that are moderate or left "trust" the government. I don't trust the government. But I trust the power structure with a democratic government much more than I trust the power structure with no government. This doesn't mean I trust or love the government.

3) Trust of government is a spectrum not a binary switch. It goes from slight distrust to straight up paranoia. I would say you're on the side of straight up paranoia, I'm more in the middle. So to you it may seem like I "trust" the government, because the angle you're viewing my opinion from is at the extreme end of the spectrum. But that does not mean I trust the government.

4) Gold isn't only correlated to "government screwing with the money supply". If it were gold would have went to $10,000 in the last decade. Gold is much more complex of an asset than that. It has numerous correlations and inputs that battle each other every day. The whole government thing is only one of many correlations, and not usually even the strongest one.

There are many reasons to own gold and many reasons to own the PP. You say you don't understand how anyone that views the world differently than you could like the PP. We've given you reasons why those of us that see the world differently like the PP. Then you dismiss our opinions? That really doesn't make sense. If you want to know why the other side does something, maybe you should listen when we tell you why?

Harry Browne discovered Modern Portfolio Theory before MPT was even a thing. MPT has nothing to do with politics.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by vnatale » Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:21 pm

Simonjester wrote:
vnatale wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:26 pm

Maddy wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:18 am

I've asked this question before but have never received an answer:

If this forum is so objectionable or useless to the non-libertarian members of this forum, why do those people keep coming back here? If the philosophical orientation and dominant viewpoint expressed here is so reprehensible as to actually cause a member to post in a venomous, out-of-control tirade that that the conservative members of this forum be "mercilessly crushed," why does he continue to reappear like clockwork? Why are we subjected to melodramatic "I'm leaving here forever" displays, only to have the aggrieved individuals to return and make the same dramatic exit again?


I guess you will have to wait for Mr. Libertarian666 to re-appear again to directly ask him that question and hope that he sees it and does not have you on "Ignore".

Vinny
tec didn't give a lot of detail on why he was leaving but i got no indication it was a hissy fit, or caused by post drama..
i could be wrong but my impression was he took off to do a "sphere of influence" thing, pursue changing things he has control over vs arguing politics with closed minds, which is a waste of time (it sharpens ones thinking, can be entertaining, and perhaps informative to lurkers ) but mostly non productive from a liveitarian perspective..


I did think twice about actually naming him since he is not here to defend himself. So since he is not here to defend himself I will not go into any further details regarding him other than to say....I do think you ARE wrong. I have my own ideas why he left but again it'd not be fair to him to discuss them in public without him having the opportunity to defend himself. He's an obvious highly intelligent person who'd I'd not want to get into a one-on-one argument with from the fear of being ripped to shreds but.....
Simonjester wrote:fair enough..
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by sophie » Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:07 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 12:26 pm
Government sets the interest rate. Which is what drives those two factors.
Not quite.

The Federal Reserve definitely manipulates the monetary supply by tinkering with the Federal funds rate, among other things. But, if there's one thing I've learned in over 7 years of tracking the PP, it's that market forces have at least as much influence on interest rates.

The point is that Harry Browne felt that the Fed's manipulation, like all government actions designed to produce a result in a top-down manner, is only going to screw up markets - because that's what happens virtually anytime a small group of people tries to tinker with a large, exceedingly complex system that has inherently unpredictable effects. That's the core of his libertarian philosophy, and also the core idea behind the PP. He designed his portfolio to be successful in that environment. It's also designed to be a U.S. centric cash management system, which I've come to appreciate is one of its best features.

If you believe that top down manipulation produces entirely predictable effects, then the PP is probably not for you - because then the deck would be stacked against it. So I really don't understand how someone with a far-left philosophy can simultaneously be interested in the PP.
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Re: Sound and fury

Post by SomeDude » Sat Dec 19, 2020 12:02 pm

Ohhh and I'm here for the ladies in case anyone wondered. I like to talk stocks and gold and USD but for obvious reasons the political chat was hopping in Nov.

Tried to discuss the mountains of evidence of election fraud but the other people who see it got sidetracked by some 7th degree black belt trolling.

Big fan of HB. I have 6 or 7 of his books. I've recommended "how i found freedom" to multiple people, 2 of which promptly filed for divorce after. I regret one of those was my step dad. Sorry mom.
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