Putin Invades Ukraine II

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seajay
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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She's fearful of a nuclear war, in a world ever closer to such from increasing fronts (N Korea, Iran ...etc.).

Meh!

We're all going to die ... some day. I live in a major city (London) so a near instant death albeit sooner than later - is a better way to go then many other ways. If mankind goes extinct as would be likely soon thereafter, well that seems to be mankind's intent/destiny anyway. Not worth worrying about.

As for her concerns about NATO expansion of bordering a terrorist state (Russian Federation), well Putin's actions aided that increasing by 800 miles as Finland joins NATO. I think its good to have the counter of one (Putin) threatening 'hypersonic nukes that can strike within seconds/minutes, with the build up of nuclear capabilities along the NATO borders with Russia that can equally strike within seconds (even when not hypersonic). The large proportion of Russians live within the continental European region, such that if their leader decided to launch, he might as well just have his own people commit suicide - not that he'd care.

If there was a WW3, no one would care, no one would record its history. Pointless worrying about something that you wont care about if it comes to pass. But yes, Putin's actions and nuclear threats compounds the problems/risks, that's what terrorist strive-for/do. You don't detract away from threats, you instate/increase measures to counter them.

I opine that Ukraine should be further aided with the means to strike into Russia. Having one side launch from its homeland into another's rightfully should see that being balanced. If you strike another's capital then expect your own to be struck in return is a better stance than weakness.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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There are some great essays in the new Foreign Affairs issue. I don’t want to bore I_Shrugged O0 with insufficient America-blaming, but one of the pieces sees three main possible outcomes from the Russian side.

The first and least likely scenario is that Russia will agree to its defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms.

A second scenario for Russian defeat would involve failure amid escalation. The Kremlin would nihilistically seek to prolong the war in Ukraine while launching a campaign of unacknowledged acts of sabotage in countries that support Kyiv and in Ukraine itself. In the worst case, Russia could opt for a nuclear attack on Ukraine. The war would then edge toward a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

The final scenario for the war’s end would be defeat through regime collapse, with the decisive battles taking place not in Ukraine but rather in the halls of the Kremlin or in the streets of Moscow.

This is from ‘Putin’s Last Stand’ by Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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dualstow wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:50 am There are some great essays in the new Foreign Affairs issue. I don’t want to bore I_Shrugged O0 with insufficient America-blaming, but one of the pieces sees three main possible outcomes from the Russian side.

The first and least likely scenario is that Russia will agree to its defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms.

A second scenario for Russian defeat would involve failure amid escalation. The Kremlin would nihilistically seek to prolong the war in Ukraine while launching a campaign of unacknowledged acts of sabotage in countries that support Kyiv and in Ukraine itself. In the worst case, Russia could opt for a nuclear attack on Ukraine. The war would then edge toward a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

The final scenario for the war’s end would be defeat through regime collapse, with the decisive battles taking place not in Ukraine but rather in the halls of the Kremlin or in the streets of Moscow.

This is from ‘Putin’s Last Stand’ by Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage
If the last were to occur, I would think it will be precipitated by economic pressure. The global sanctions that have been placed on Russia are something that has not happened before in history, at least not on this scale, and in such an interconnected global economy. Because Russia is opaque and not open to press, I wonder if the effects of the sanctions are more significant than we know.
I mentioned in another post, for most of us laypeople, the collapse of the USSR was not something we saw obviously coming. If the regime collapses, it could happen very suddenly.

The first scenario could be very much like Stalin's settlement with Finland where he accepted 8% of the land area that was mostly worthless to Finland anyway i.e. a token settlement to be able to say he didn't walk away with nothing.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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seajay wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:03 pm She's fearful of a nuclear war, in a world ever closer to such from increasing fronts (N Korea, Iran ...etc.).

Meh!

We're all going to die ... some day. I live in a major city (London) so a near instant death albeit sooner than later - is a better way to go then many other ways. If mankind goes extinct as would be likely soon thereafter, well that seems to be mankind's intent/destiny anyway. Not worth worrying about.
The problem is there are lots of weird freaks with family and children even and they'd like to see them live long and happy lives and have kids of their own.

Your perspective on all this seems very sensible. You should be in NATO high command setting them straight. They should definitely not be concerned with nuclear war, I mean, nuclear war, meh! We're all gonna die someday anyway so who cares right? Let's get WW3 started already!

Deep strikes in Russia by NATO, I mean uhhhh Ukraine, will DEFINITELY improve the situation. It will make things a lot better.
Last edited by SilentMajority on Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Long game (perhaps by 2027) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... ip_22_1511
The European Commission has today [March 2022] proposed an outline of a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030
We must become independent from Russian oil, coal and gas. We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens
Which will induce Russian reliance upon China/India, who in turn may be driven to choosing between trading with the West, or Russia, and given such will be more inclined to opt for the former.

As over the next four years the Russian economy contracts by more than half, and sees the outflow of talent, so the regime will be increasingly questioned by the general population. Putin is under time pressures and as such is likely to make a big push come the spring with overwhelming force from all directions. Ukraine should be assisted with kit that can devastate the build up of such forces whilst being gathered at/near their borders and reciprocal strikes of cities within Russia. Russia would of course threaten nuclear response to such - but that should simply be ignored, just have the visual presence of a all to clear retaliatory action if they did.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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SilentMajority wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:41 am
seajay wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:03 pm She's fearful of a nuclear war, in a world ever closer to such from increasing fronts (N Korea, Iran ...etc.).

Meh!

We're all going to die ... some day. I live in a major city (London) so a near instant death albeit sooner than later - is a better way to go then many other ways. If mankind goes extinct as would be likely soon thereafter, well that seems to be mankind's intent/destiny anyway. Not worth worrying about.
The problem is there are lots of weird freaks with family and children even and they'd like to see them live long and happy lives and have kids if their own.

Your perspective on all this seems very sensible. You should be in NATO high command setting them straight. They should definitely not be concerned with nuclear war, I mean, nuclear war, meh! We're all gonna die someday anyway so who cares right? Let's get WW3 started already!
Russia is a terrorist entity with nuclear capabilities, nothing can be done about that so if it happens it happens. Obviously most would prefer nothing to occur, but the vileness of Russians is that they threaten aggressive deployment rather than stating their deterrent only intent. Russian's blatantly lie, cannot be trusted, so any attempts at negotiated settlements are pretty much useless. Widely recognized as the highest ranked scum of the earth, having risen above ISIS. Just something that the civilized world has to live with, nibble away at and with time hope for its demise (maybe see its population tire of being considered as scum and seeking to join the rest of the civilized world).
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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seajay wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:48 am Putin is under time pressures and as such is likely to make a big push come the spring.
I would think the thawing ground and snow in spring would turn the landscape into a morass. Pretty sure any heavy rainfall in the April-May timeframe results in flooding. I think they call it General Mud.

I expect a major offensive in Jan. I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen by mid Feb at least.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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seajay wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:05 am
SilentMajority wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:41 am
seajay wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:03 pm She's fearful of a nuclear war, in a world ever closer to such from increasing fronts (N Korea, Iran ...etc.).

Meh!

We're all going to die ... some day. I live in a major city (London) so a near instant death albeit sooner than later - is a better way to go then many other ways. If mankind goes extinct as would be likely soon thereafter, well that seems to be mankind's intent/destiny anyway. Not worth worrying about.
The problem is there are lots of weird freaks with family and children even and they'd like to see them live long and happy lives and have kids if their own.

Your perspective on all this seems very sensible. You should be in NATO high command setting them straight. They should definitely not be concerned with nuclear war, I mean, nuclear war, meh! We're all gonna die someday anyway so who cares right? Let's get WW3 started already!
Russia is a terrorist entity with nuclear capabilities, nothing can be done about that so if it happens it happens. Obviously most would prefer nothing to occur, but the vileness of Russians is that they threaten aggressive deployment rather than stating their deterrent only intent. Russian's blatantly lie, cannot be trusted, so any attempts at negotiated settlements are pretty much useless. Widely recognized as the highest ranked scum of the earth, having risen above ISIS. Just something that the civilized world has to live with, nibble away at and with time hope for its demise (maybe see its population tire of being considered as scum and seeking to join the rest of the civilized world).
Yes and even if all the Ukrainians die in the process, that's just something we have to live with. It couldn't have been prevented. The Donbass needed to be crushed by Kiev until it surrendered and NATO needed armored divisions east of the Dneiper. We must crush all vile Russian scum anywhere and everywhere.

Someone is either with us, or with the terrorists, I mean, Russians and Putin.

The only good Russian is a dead Russian, as they say.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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dualstow wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 6:50 am There are some great essays in the new Foreign Affairs issue. I don’t want to bore I_Shrugged O0 with insufficient America-blaming, but one of the pieces sees three main possible outcomes from the Russian side.

The first and least likely scenario is that Russia will agree to its defeat by accepting a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms.

A second scenario for Russian defeat would involve failure amid escalation. The Kremlin would nihilistically seek to prolong the war in Ukraine while launching a campaign of unacknowledged acts of sabotage in countries that support Kyiv and in Ukraine itself. In the worst case, Russia could opt for a nuclear attack on Ukraine. The war would then edge toward a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.

The final scenario for the war’s end would be defeat through regime collapse, with the decisive battles taking place not in Ukraine but rather in the halls of the Kremlin or in the streets of Moscow.

This is from ‘Putin’s Last Stand’ by Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage
Doesn't the second scenario sound like US in Afghanistan? Not including the nuclear attack of course.

I feel like I should clarify my positions.

Putin bad. By our standards, Russia is kind of barbaric at their core.
Ukraine is probably not angelic. It's a corrupt place and I feel sure that Zelinsky is skimming money during this. It's what they do.

I feel very bad for the Ukrainian people.

NATO probably should have been disbanded or greatly scaled back years ago. As it is, Russia obviously feel very threatened by it. Threatened sometimes leads to what appear to be desperate acts. I do have some sympathy for their complaint.

I dislike the military's influence in the US. They are the tail that wags the dog. But the dog likes it. In my lifetime we have barely ever not been at war. Insert John Lennon music here. We should have let Ukraine sink or swim. The real reason we support them is so we can oppose Russia. We are fighting a proxy war with Russia. A proxy war is not something to enter into lightly. We are basically at war with Russia. Caveat emptor.

I do see the parallels with Hitler's Germany, but that also would not have happened if not for the punitive treatment of Germany after WW1. WW1 was beyond stupid, and the treaty was stupid. It led to the rise of Hitler. So if Putin is making war like Hitler, which I think is a stretch, then what did we do to contribute to it? A lot. Our military and government (but I repeat myself) love(s) this war. Yes, I mean that. The testimony in Trump's first impeachment trial set out the framework of our policy. We saw Ukraine as a tool to use against Russia. We got our wish.

There is a lot of propaganda out there. Truth is the first casualty of war, etc.

It's costing us billions and billions of dollars, which we don't have. No one cares, and it's my least objection although it probably should be more important. I hope I live long enough to see how our immense debt gets dealt with. It could be spectacular.


So that's it:
Russia bad
Ukraine who?
We wanted it, we got it
Ukrainians are dying for it
Our kids or grandkids are going to pay for it

I have no sources to cite, no links to post. The above is just how I see it. At this point, I hope Putin comes up with some face saving victorious retreat so this can end. Unlikely though.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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An interesting source of apparently evenly-biased information on Russia at Harvard University that I just came across:

https://www.russiamatters.org/

Happy 2023 everybody. Here's hoping for good things for the Ukrainian people, whatever that means. If NATO is a good guy, I hope they win soon, so Ukraine can be done with this garbage. If NATO is a bad guy, I hope they lose soon, so Ukraine can be done with this garbage. Personally, I lean strongly toward the second view, but who really knows what the truth is these days -- it's very hard to find unbiased sources of information.

If nuclear war is on the horizon, I will note there are prophecies in the Bible about "palm trees (mushroom clouds) of smoke" and "the elements melting with fervent heat, eyeballs melting in their sockets" that type of thing. Sorry to go all biblical on you if you're not into that type of thing.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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I Shrugged wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:39 pm


I do see the parallels with Hitler's Germany, but that also would not have happened if not for the punitive treatment of Germany after WW1. WW1 was beyond stupid, and the treaty was stupid. It led to the rise of Hitler.


That is what is usually and frequently stated. But it is myth.

Not long ago I posted elsewhere a few pages excerpt from a book which fully explains why the myth is not true.

Germany emerged from World War I far less damaged and far more intact than the other WW I European participants.

Last night a friend told me a few things about his visit to Dresden a few year ago. I was shocked to learn that now nearly 70 years after the end of World War II many Germans still refuse to accept their responsibility for starting it. Similarly the German country was able to successfully propagate the World War I myth that it was all due the Allies that Hitler arose in Germany.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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I Shrugged wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:39 pm <snip>
I feel like I should clarify my positions.

Putin bad. By our standards, Russia is kind of barbaric at their core.
Ukraine is probably not angelic. It's a corrupt place and I feel sure that Zelinsky is skimming money during this. It's what they do.

I feel very bad for the Ukrainian people.

NATO probably should have been disbanded or greatly scaled back years ago. As it is, Russia obviously feel very threatened by it. Threatened sometimes leads to what appear to be desperate acts. I do have some sympathy for their complaint.

<more snip>
The smaller countries neighboring Russia feel threatened by it. For better reasons, IMO, given who’s invaded where in Europe, size of countries, and who has nukes.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Dieter wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:50 pm
I Shrugged wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:39 pm <snip>
I feel like I should clarify my positions.

Putin bad. By our standards, Russia is kind of barbaric at their core.
Ukraine is probably not angelic. It's a corrupt place and I feel sure that Zelinsky is skimming money during this. It's what they do.

I feel very bad for the Ukrainian people.

NATO probably should have been disbanded or greatly scaled back years ago. As it is, Russia obviously feel very threatened by it. Threatened sometimes leads to what appear to be desperate acts. I do have some sympathy for their complaint.

<more snip>
The smaller countries neighboring Russia feel threatened by it. For better reasons, IMO, given who’s invaded where in Europe, size of countries, and who has nukes.

This sounds like a chicken or egg question.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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I Shrugged wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:39 pm I feel like I should clarify my positions.

Putin bad. By our standards, Russia is kind of barbaric at their core.
Indeed, Russian's seem willing for coach-roaches to inherit the earth
It's costing us billions and billions of dollars, which we don't have. No one cares, and it's my least objection although it probably should be more important. I hope I live long enough to see how our immense debt gets dealt with. It could be spectacular.

Our kids or grandkids are going to pay for it
Fiat currency, doesn't really cost anything, and doesn't leave a legacy for children to inherit, national debts are decayed via inflation, the only cost is servicing such debts in the interim. 1930 ounce of gold $20, recent $1800, each 1930 $ has in effect be devalued to being worth around 1 cent.

Putin is striving to destroy capitalism/US$, which if successful would be a massive hit upon the West, but he wont succeed in that desire/objective, quite the opposite, he's inducing decline/pain upon Russia. But only provided the US intervenes, without intervention his objective would be more inclined to succeed. Not spending now could be a far higher burden upon grandchildren.

As-is, it could even work out well for the environment. The EU for instance are looking to massively reduce energy dependence upon old-energy (gas/oil) and higher prices induce the faster development of cleaner alternatives (fusion ...etc.). A world no longer petro/gas based (fossil fuels releasing millions of years of captured CO2 back into the atmosphere over a short period of time), would not only be good for the world but also see massive declines in the likes of Iran/Arabia/Russia (oil/gas based economies that conflict with the best interest of civilized countries).
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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The less reliance on oil, the more tenuous is Putin’s hold on his position.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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SilentMajority wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:37 am
seajay wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:05 am
SilentMajority wrote: Sat Dec 31, 2022 9:41 am
seajay wrote: Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:03 pm..
Yes and even if all the Ukrainians die in the process, that's just something we have to live with. It couldn't have been prevented. The Donbass needed to be crushed by Kiev until it surrendered and NATO needed armored divisions east of the Dneiper. We must crush all vile Russian scum anywhere and everywhere.

Someone is either with us, or with the terrorists, I mean, Russians and Putin.

The only good Russian is a dead Russian, as they say.
I just want to point out, in all these pages I don’t think a single person has demonized the average Russian. If anything, empathy has been shown for what they have to endure because of Putin, whether it’s economic sanctions or being drafted into a war they may not want to fight.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Capture.JPG
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Here’s a bizarre story for you about Putin and Rasputin.

https://allanishac.medium.com/no-ones-d ... f319747d77

“If we look at pubic hair samples removed from Putin’s sheets, and those of Rasputin taken from his ball sack that was preserved in fluids after his death, we see an almost exact DNA match,” said an undercover CIA agent in Moscow, speaking from a safe house. “Everyone in the intelligence community now accepts that Czar Nicholas’ crazy cenobite found a way to return as Vladimir Putin.”
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Mountaineer wrote: Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:33 am
Here’s a bizarre story for you about Putin and Rasputin.

https://allanishac.medium.com/no-ones-d ... f319747d77

“If we look at pubic hair samples removed from Putin’s sheets, and those of Rasputin taken from his ball sack that was preserved in fluids after his death, we see an almost exact DNA match,” said an undercover CIA agent in Moscow, speaking from a safe house. “Everyone in the intelligence community now accepts that Czar Nicholas’ crazy cenobite found a way to return as Vladimir Putin.”


Another word never prior seen by me!
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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I only know the word from Hellraiser. You do not want to use Google Images and have been warned. O0
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fo ... ce=twitter

4 minute readFebruary 1, 20238:05 PM ESTLast Updated 2 hours ago

Former Wagner commander: 'I am sorry for fighting in Ukraine'
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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vnatale wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:08 pm https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fo ... ce=twitter

4 minute readFebruary 1, 20238:05 PM ESTLast Updated 2 hours ago

Former Wagner commander: 'I am sorry for fighting in Ukraine'
Did you read the article lol?

#1 Reuters is trash propaganda.

#2 - This dude was not a "commander". At most he was a squad leader because of his age (26) taking orders from a lieutenant per the article. Even the guy giving him orders was not a "commander" which is captain level. This guy was/is trash.

#3 "Medvedev said he had served several jail terms, including one for a robbery"

For anyone who didn't read this trash article, this guy was a multiple convicted felon who probably couldn't get a job anywhere else in Russia, who appears to have deserted the unit and fled Russia. Now Western media is calling him a commander and pointing to him as some judge of the Russian troops. Absolute garbage.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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SilentMajority wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:03 pm
vnatale wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:08 pm
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fo ... ce=twitter

4 minute readFebruary 1, 20238:05 PM ESTLast Updated 2 hours ago

Former Wagner commander: 'I am sorry for fighting in Ukraine'


Did you read the article lol?

#1 Reuters is trash propaganda.

#2 - This dude was not a "commander". At most he was a squad leader because of his age (26) taking orders from a lieutenant per the article. Even the guy giving him orders was not a "commander" which is captain level. This guy was/is trash.

#3 "Medvedev said he had served several jail terms, including one for a robbery"

For anyone who didn't read this trash article, this guy was a multiple convicted felon who probably couldn't get a job anywhere else in Russia, who appears to have deserted the unit and fled Russia. Now Western media is calling him a commander and pointing to him as some judge of the Russian troops. Absolute garbage.


I did read it.

#1 Our own esteemed KBG has several times stated that he believes Reuters to be one of the more creditable sources.

#3 Not that unusual who basically lost his family at the age of 12 but then later turned around his life.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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vnatale wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:35 pm
SilentMajority wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 4:03 pm
vnatale wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:08 pm https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fo ... ce=twitter

4 minute readFebruary 1, 20238:05 PM ESTLast Updated 2 hours ago

Former Wagner commander: 'I am sorry for fighting in Ukraine'
Did you read the article lol?

#1 Reuters is trash propaganda.

#2 - This dude was not a "commander". At most he was a squad leader because of his age (26) taking orders from a lieutenant per the article. Even the guy giving him orders was not a "commander" which is captain level. This guy was/is trash.

#3 "Medvedev said he had served several jail terms, including one for a robbery"

For anyone who didn't read this trash article, this guy was a multiple convicted felon who probably couldn't get a job anywhere else in Russia, who appears to have deserted the unit and fled Russia. Now Western media is calling him a commander and pointing to him as some judge of the Russian troops. Absolute garbage.
I did read it.

#1 Our own esteemed KBG has several times stated that he believes Reuters to be one of the more creditable sources.

#3 Not that unusual who basically lost his family at the age of 12 but then later turned around his life.
The multiple convicted felon and robber turned his life around by joining a mercenary group then deserting and fleeing his unit and country to go and denounce them from another country/alliance trying to wage war on his home country.

Wow.

Imagine a US multiple felon joining a merc group and fighting in Iraq, then deserting and fleeing to Iran and RT reporting that the guy said US troops were evil.

If this is the best propaganda Reuters could muster today they are giving up.

Ohhhh....and the call him a "commander" even though he's clearly just a foot soldier. Laughable.
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Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

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Ukraine destroys Russian “Arctic” Air Defense System — a first

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-730624
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