barrett wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:18 am
I'm not going to dispute all of the above but I don't buy that the economy is in "shambles" and that we have (or even had at the time of the midterms) anything close to "runaway inflation". Yes, inflation was running hot through June but CPI-U numbers have come to a near standstill since then. . . .
The 6.1% annualized rate is almost entirely due to the January to June period when, yes, inflation was trending higher and at an unacceptable level for the long term.
Regarding the economy being in "shambles", I just don't see it. Not saying it's great across the board for everyone but I think there are few countries in the world we'd be wise to trade places with at the moment.
I no longer pay any attention to the official CPI numbers. They're so ridiculously cooked that they no longer have any meaning. Here's my own (largely anecdotal) experience:
Health insurance premiums have skyrocketed, as has the price of gasoline and diesel. Real estate has experienced never-before-seen appreciation. Rents are up to the point where working people are living out of their vehicles. Firewood is up 30 percent from last year. Basic home and car repair services are up at least 30 percent year over year. The cost of sending a shipment via UPS or FedEx has doubled.
Groceries have gone through the roof. Last week, I paid $6 for a bunch of organic celery and $10 for a 1.5-pound head of organic broccoli. Bread, eggs, and other staples have doubled in price. Beef and chicken are up by about a third. Building materials have become so expensive that I have delayed even minor building projects (shed, fencing). A Mennonite-built pre-fabricated shed that sold for $2,500 last year is nearly $5,000 today. I looked into buying a new water heater this year and was stunned by the price. That is, if you could find one in stock.
I can't speak to the price of cell phones, data plans, smart TVs, spying doorbells, and robotic vacuum cleaners--or to the price of the mountains of China-made junk that line the aisles of Walmart. Maybe it's the fact that I rarely buy more than the basics that my own personal inflation rate is so wildly different than the one the federal government is peddling. However, I predict that in the not-too-distant future, a majority of Americans will be less concerned with spying doorbells than simply keeping their refrigerator stocked, at which point their experience may be much more in line with my own.
As for the state of the economy, I recently read that something like 1/3 of the adult population is on some sort of food assistance. I cannot recall the actual statistics regarding employment, but huge numbers of previously-employed people are no longer working. Anecdotally, I hear nearly every day from local business owners that they are unable to find people to hire. They say that they cannot compete with the smorgasbord of benefits that governments are throwing at people to stay home. Reports about the attitudes of young people toward work paint a dismal picture.
Most local retail establishments in my area are not able to keep their shelves stocked. This week, there was not an egg to be found at any of the large-chain grocery stores. I was able to find only about three-quarters of the items on my grocery list. Many people I know are having trouble filling prescriptions for things like antibiotics, and are finding that over-the-counter meds (tylenol, cold medicine) have been sold out for weeks.
Credible news reports published during just the last month cite the fact that a majority of ordinary Americans are up to their eyeballs in debt and are relying upon credit cards (at eye-popping rates of interest) to meet basic household expenses. The government has increased the national debt by a jaw-dropping amount--13 trillion (?)--in the last two years. Given escalating rates, exactly how is that debt supposed to be serviced?
The supply chain problems that we've seen over the last 18 months are only getting worse. Talk to a trucker about the price of diesel or about the obstacles they face getting across state borders or into ports. Every week, we hear of yet another policy or regulation (most particularly in relation to curbing the use of energy) that is actually designed to contract the economy.
The largest banks and financial institutions are insolvent by most ordinary measures, up to their necks in derivatives and facing some sort of near-term reckoning in relation to their bloated portfolios of interest rate swaps. Many are relying upon regular infusions of cash from government coffers to keep their doors open. Insurance companies are teetering on the edge of insolvency, having failed for many years to meet the projected 8% return on reserves on which their business model is predicated. Pensions, it is being reported, are in significant trouble.
Sorry I don't have time to provide references this morning for some of the non-anecdotal stuff I've cited here, but I trust that if you've paid any attention to the news you've seen much the same thing that I have.
If there is anyone here who has a contrary view of the economy, I'd sure like to hear it. (I could use some good news.)
