Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Ad Orientem
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:18 pm

Not a fan of doom porn, but Warren Buffet is a hardcore stock bug and he is sitting on $128 billion in cash. More than a few people think the market is getting frothy and is due for a correction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/29/buffett ... ation.html
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:03 am

warren has tried to buy some private companies with that money but it did not go through . tech data was one .

he is on the hunt to buy but he has not found what he is looking for . don't forget he buys a lot of private companies we can't and they are uneffected in price by market drops since they dont trade on stock exchanges .
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Nov 30, 2019 6:37 am

Yep, Warren B was outbid by Apollo Global.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am

Whatever has been going on since October is insane. Is it just me who thinks this is unsustainable? Yet nearly day after day, record highs. Wow.

% of stocks above 200 day MA is around 80% vs. 55% at the beginning of Oct.

I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by drumminj » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:38 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am
I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.
Agreed, I've been struggling with this as well. The only way I can convince myself to buy stocks is to remind myself I believe in the system of 4 assets, and I need to hold all four. It's still not been easy, though.

Then again, I have the same struggle with LTT and gold these days O0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:11 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am
I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.
I'm in the opposite camp. Stocks may turn out to be overvalued at any time, decimating shares. However, investing in stocks is betting on prosperity. People still to go to work, companies continue to create value and smoke & mirrors or not, stocks continue their upward trend, even with a ten-year hiccup between 2000 and 2010. If I had the stomach for it, I'd go 90% stocks.

EDIT: added a missing preposition.
Last edited by dualstow on Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:18 am

Up until a few years before retirement I was always 100% equities.......as a long term investor there was never any logic to trying to mitigate temporary short term dips and permanently reduce my long term returns .....

I was well rewarded for it despite wars , 2 back to back recessions and the lost decade for equities...today I run in maintenance mode in retirement..... I range from 25-50% equities depending on where we are in the cycle. I no longer want the volatility of high equity allocations
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:49 pm

I concur. Equities look pretty inflated right now. But then again so do bonds. People sometimes ask me where all the inflation is that I have occasionally warned of. And I just tell them to look at the stock market. If I were speculating I'd be over-weighting cash and gold.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:47 pm

Overvalued is hard to put a number on ...if earnings rise , or rates come down everything has a new view .

Everyone thought stocks were way over priced in 1982 after p/es doubled ...little did anyone know the greatest bull market in history was ready to take off
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm

We are ten years into a bull market that pretty much smokes all that has gone before. Could I be wrong? Yep. Am I making any bets here? Nope. But if I was... I'd say this market is due for a correction. It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:09 pm

US Large caps excluded, we actually had a bear in just about every equity market Sep-Dec 2018 defined as 20% or greater DD.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pugchief » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:00 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm
It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.
If anyone wants to take the other side, I would be willing to bet big $ that the good times last at least until after the election in Nov.
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