Stock Meltup Underway?

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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sophie
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by sophie » Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:29 am

The problem with these predictions is that they may be accurate given an unlimited time horizon (i.e. yes, the stock market will go through a correction sometime in the future), but they can't predict the timing of the event.

Because of that, they're a terrible guide to use for investment actions. What if the correction doesn't happen for another year? Or another 3 years? You might end up doing worse than if you just stayed in and took the loss, because you'll have missed out on the gains to be had before that happens.

Since you're protected by the PP's "insurance" assets (bonds + gold) anyway, why even bother? Unless of course you're trying to finagle those too and end up being caught short when D-day comes.
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shekels
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by shekels » Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:04 am

Stock Melt up, or aka, Fear of Missing Out.
https://www.qwant.com/
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dualstow
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:39 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:29 am
The problem with these predictions is that they may be accurate given an unlimited time horizon (i.e. yes, the stock market will go through a correction sometime in the future), but they can't predict the timing of the event.
A few years ago, Rick Ferri released his 30-year forecast. Like a bunch of similar forecasts, it looked pretty dismal for equity returns.Who’d’ve thought we’d get all our gains for this thirty-year cycle right at the beginning!
You may have some 30-year treasury interest as of Saturday. Vanguard’s transaction history is finally showing it, too.
Don
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by Don » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:00 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:39 pm
sophie wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 9:29 am
The problem with these predictions is that they may be accurate given an unlimited time horizon (i.e. yes, the stock market will go through a correction sometime in the future), but they can't predict the timing of the event.
A few years ago, Rick Ferri released his 30-year forecast. Like a bunch of similar forecasts, it looked pretty dismal for equity returns.Who’d’ve thought we’d get all our gains for this thirty-year cycle right at the beginning!
And what ever happened to gloom and doom John Hussman? Has his fund gone under?
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dualstow
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:30 pm

Hope so.
You may have some 30-year treasury interest as of Saturday. Vanguard’s transaction history is finally showing it, too.
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:51 am

his returns have been dismal like his predictions .

his strategic growth fund is actually quite distinguished .. it actually lost money in one of the greatest bull markets in history ...

his record is just awful . the fact it still is open and has investors is scary .

1 year minus 19%
3 year minus 8%
5 year minus 10%
10 year minus 7.58%
15 minus 4.56%

from fund inception minus .25%

i guess if you are going to predict , predict often , one day you will be right .. by the time this guys ship comes in the pier collapsed .
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ochotona
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:08 am

Hussman has a graph which he posts sometimes, depicting "market internals". If he were to use that chart alone, he'd have results like the Gary Antonacci GEM portfolio, or better, because the risk-on / risk-off turns are similarly placed. He'd definitely beat the market over a complete cycle. But... he ignores or sabotages his best work. How he runs his funds obviously reflects his internal mental state, which is fear driven.

I think it's OK to use his Margin-Adjusted CAPE as the context for using the market internals. You sit closer to the theater exit door in care of a fire... but if you sit in the lobby at the start of the movie, you don't see the movie.

BTW, my wife's IRA is in ACWV iShares global min volatility ETF, all time highs, so it's not just the USA. She's 50% that, and 50% Schwab SCHZ total bond ETF. Her assets still at Schwab, no reason to move them to Fidelity, I don't trade her things. Only mine.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:36 am

I like that analogy.
You may have some 30-year treasury interest as of Saturday. Vanguard’s transaction history is finally showing it, too.
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by Kbg » Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:31 am

On international...I have a retirement account that sucks for options. I can buy a cheap US S&P 500 index fund but international the best option is Vanguard Intl Growth. This account is GEMing using my method and is 80 intl/20% US.
Last edited by Kbg on Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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InsuranceGuy
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by InsuranceGuy » Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:25 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:31 am
On international...I have a retirement account that sucks for options. I can by a cheap US S&P 500 inex fund but international the best options is Vanguard Intl Growth. This account is GEMing using my method and is 80 intl/20% US.
So you do a tranched GEM in your 401k and then your leveraged mix in your IRA/taxable? I've noticed you talk about both but curious how that was split out.
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Kbg
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Re: Stock Meltup Underway?

Post by Kbg » Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:45 pm

I use both. Some accounts are risk parity/PP ish and others are GEM. Due to past and current employers I have way more accounts than I care to have.

So for those accounts in GEM (3), I stagger trading dates. However, the primary management technique is staggered look back (LB) for determining which asset to be in. Classic GEM is 12mo LB for performance and all in for whatever asset is chosen. What I do is look at 10 LBs starting at the 3mo and going through to 12mos...so 10 slices which work the same as GEM and get a 10% allocation per slice. Thus, rather than having 100% in a single asset and then moving to 100% in something else the portfolio tends to move in and out of assets gradually. Under this method you might see 70% US, 20% intl and 10% bonds for example. Of course the short LBs have assets changing all the time and the long LBs are more stable.

I’ll never go back to standard GEM. However, I have software that does all the calcs and spits out the trades I need to make so its not difficult. For someone who wants some of this without all of the complexity something like 3 or 4 slices using 3,6,9,12mo LBs could be easily managed using free websites.

My leveraged hold ports can be found in the VP section thread. I update performance on them whenever I feel like it and whatever tweaks I make for the following year.
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