Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:19 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:51 am
So this 2850 level, how much is based off technicals vs. fundamentals?

I don't understand how there can be a valid technical level at this point when fundamentals are completely unknowable. How many companies will report losses? For how long? Usually traders have an idea with guidance. That is currently impossible.

How long will it take any sizeable amount of consumers to get anywhere near back to normal?

I cannot see this bounce being sustainable, but of course that's why I don't trade!
Haha, fundamentals don't matter. At least not on anything less than a multi-year timeframe. In the 1 day - 1 year timeframe all that matters is sentiment. Sentiment is driven purely by emotion, not by logic or numbers. This is why you're confused, and why you will always be confused if you look to fundamentals to drive short term moves in the markets. 2850 is a technical level. There are multiple "resistance" levels around that area that should hold *if* we are truly in a bear market. Most importantly, in a bear market by very definition you have to have lower lows and lower highs. You cannot be in a bear market if the 4th wave up goes above the low of the 1st wave down. You've at that point had a high that broke above a previous low. This instead is the very definition of an uptrend. So it technically would be impossible to still be in a bear market if we close above 2850. The big funds will be watching those levels, and if they have conviction in the bear case they will sell. If they instead are bullish, they won't and the bull case will continue to unfold.
Last edited by pmward on Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tortoise
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:21 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:51 am
I cannot see this bounce being sustainable, but of course that's why I don't trade!
Completely agree. I think enough economic damage has already been done by the global shutdown that, even in a best-case scenario, it will take longer than we think to completely "re-boot" everything back to where it was.

And the economic shockwaves are initiating chain reactions that we're only starting to see and will play out over the coming months (possibly years) in ways we can't predict. Unintended consequences on steroids.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:28 pm

Another ZH headline - "Fade The Rip": BofA Warns "Bear Market Far From Over Unless We Escape A Recession"
pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:44 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:28 pm
Another ZH headline - "Fade The Rip": BofA Warns "Bear Market Far From Over Unless We Escape A Recession"
This morning I believe it was Morgan Stanley that came out and said that the time to buy was now, that the bottom was in. What does this tell me? Morgan Stanley likely want to unload stocks, and BofA likely wants to buy stocks. These analysts are notorious for making media releases that help their own internal desires.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 pm

I just don't see much economic activity at all right now... most people I know are working from home if at all. Stocks going up like this just doesn't make sense to me.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:00 pm

barrett wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 pm
I just don't see much economic activity at all right now... most people I know are working from home if at all. Stocks going up like this just doesn't make sense to me.
Isn’t it just anticipation of a cure, sooner rather than later?
Sony’s first AI image sensor will make cameras everywhere smarter -- the verge dot com
barrett
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:09 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:00 pm
barrett wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:58 pm
I just don't see much economic activity at all right now... most people I know are working from home if at all. Stocks going up like this just doesn't make sense to me.
Isn’t it just anticipation of a cure, sooner rather than later?
Maybe. Is there a cure imminent? I have had the news turned off today.

Damn, dualstow, just saw in your sig line that Pussy Galore has left the building.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:59 pm

S&P down for the day! Hit resistance, rejected.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:06 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:59 pm
S&P down for the day! Hit resistance, rejected.
Darn. I stopped looking at 2:45 and went to do chores in the garden.
(That’s right, Barrett. Mountaineer also mentioned it outright, probably in the Kat Klub thread.
and GT in the youtube thread).
Sony’s first AI image sensor will make cameras everywhere smarter -- the verge dot com
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Vil
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:03 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:06 pm
Darn. I stopped looking
I am quite convinced that looking at the major indexes for any purpose except being informed on what non-retail investors think for the market, should be strictly prohibited ;D . And actually there is the PP not to care about what all those hedge funds managers and their high speed machinery think. For VP games there are the scanners/screeners enabling day and swing trading outside all those major index companies' stocks (that are very often replicas of the previously mentioned non-retail investors perceptions ) .. This is the way I feel things... not necessarily correct.. I do not know if all that increasingly traded indexing stuff and ETFs did not actually 'kill' those index stocks.. It's rare that I feel having good enough level of confidence on what will happen with the major indexes.... boom 5 billions and index goes up, boom 10 gazillions and index goes somewhere else..
Disclaimer: And not that today I am particularly pissed of indexes (as did good job on some EU 'holiday' stocks in the morning.. seems people were heavily dreaming for summer vacations while drinking their morning coffees..)
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:15 am

Vil wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:03 am
dualstow wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:06 pm
Darn. I stopped looking
I am quite convinced that looking at the major indexes for any purpose except being informed on what non-retail investors think for the market, should be strictly prohibited ;D .
..
I was looking at stock prices to tear myself away from the news. O0 But I fully agree with your recommendation.
Sony’s first AI image sensor will make cameras everywhere smarter -- the verge dot com
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Vil
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:27 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:15 am
to tear myself away from the news
Yeh, I try not to watch news anymore, they are putting so much extra burden on my psychе. Not sure if at some point we would not all fall prey to what Stalin said a long ago - "A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic". But that has nothing to do with stocks of course .. (and long live the forum's administrator). Have a good day, pm, for me it is time to play some evening soccer outside my house ...
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