Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

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portart
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Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by portart » Mon May 19, 2014 10:28 am

We all know you don't time PP. However if your VP is one in which you buy stocks, do you think being in cash could mean missing another run up?
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by dualstow » Mon May 19, 2014 10:31 am

yep.
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by dragoncar » Mon May 19, 2014 11:41 am

Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by Kshartle » Mon May 19, 2014 12:13 pm

dragoncar wrote: Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.
If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by buddtholomew » Mon May 19, 2014 12:17 pm

Kshartle wrote:
dragoncar wrote: Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.
If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.
There is no safe, only degrees of danger.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Kshartle
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by Kshartle » Mon May 19, 2014 12:45 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Kshartle wrote:
dragoncar wrote: Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.
If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.
There is no safe, only degrees of danger.
If every adult bengal tiger is 400-550 pounds, are there light tigers and heavy tigers, or only different degrees of heavy tigers?
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by MachineGhost » Tue May 20, 2014 12:12 am

portart wrote: We all know you don't time PP. However if your VP is one in which you buy stocks, do you think being in cash could mean missing another run up?
Sure, but at overvalued markets like this one, virtually no one retains more than half of the preceding gains after the party ends.  So avoiding losses has more impact than being greedy.  But valuation alone is a terrible timing tool.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by Stewardship » Tue May 20, 2014 4:04 am

Kshartle wrote:
dragoncar wrote: Seems like it's always a dangerous time to be in and out of the market.
If it's always dangerous 100% of the time then does anything other than dnagerous exist? If nothing other than dangerous exists then does dangerous exist? Doesn't it need something else to be dangerous relative to in order to exist as dangerous?

If you say "Well there is very dangerous and less dangerous", does that mean less dangerous is actually safe?

Thought for food.
It's only dangerous 100% of the time in or out of the market.  If you are neither in nor out of the market, then it is dangerous 0-100% of the time.
In a world of ever-increasing financial intangibility and government imposition, I tend to expect otherwise.
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by ngcpa » Tue May 20, 2014 9:24 am

As long as long term interest rates remain low, stocks are a good place to be.
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by tnt » Tue May 20, 2014 6:53 pm

ngcpa wrote: As long as long term interest rates remain low, stocks are a good place to be.
With one qualification, if interest rates remain low, it is because economic growth is not supporting stock values and that low rates are creating a bubble and we are vulnerable to a correction. That is why bonds and gold are outperforming stocks because many are skeptical, just a theory of course.
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by ngcpa » Tue May 20, 2014 8:09 pm

That is why bonds and gold are outperforming stocks

Perhaps this is true over a very , very short time frame like perhaps a week or two.  Over the past couple of years stocks have way outperformed bonds and gold
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by dualstow » Tue May 20, 2014 8:15 pm

Stewardship wrote: If you are neither in nor out of the market, then it is dangerous 0-100% of the time.
Like Schroedinger's cat?
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by Reub » Tue May 20, 2014 8:28 pm

I thought that you were going to call it Schroedinger's Feline Fund.
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Re: Is This A Dangerous Time to be Out of the Market?

Post by tnt » Wed May 21, 2014 8:09 pm

ngcpa wrote: That is why bonds and gold are outperforming stocks

Perhaps this is true over a very , very short time frame like perhaps a week or two.  Over the past couple of years stocks have way outperformed bonds and gold

ngcpa, an allocation of 50/50 long bonds and gold have outperformed the total stock index 8.98% to 4.22% over the last 14 years and so far this year, 100% long bond was 7.04% in the same period and gold was 10.18%, these figures are cagr.
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