pmward wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:48 pmInstead of freaking out, get a plan in place in case you're wrong, imo. We are in a trading range right now, and I have a plan for both bull and bear cases. Mind you, my portfolio is obviously biased to the bear case so I'm right there with you in expecting a further drop... but if the market tells me I'm wrong who am I to argue? Having a macro big picture narrative is important as a starting place for research... but one of the cardinal sins of any technical or quantitative strategy is to stick to your narrative even when the signals in your strategy are clearly telling you that your macro narrative is wrong. Also remember, being early is the same thing as being wrong. That being said, I do believe the probability is higher for a breakdown than a break out. But a legit sustained breakout is possible, and I am prepared for that scenario, no matter how much I do not think it makes sense just yet. Who am I to say that all the bullish signals being thrown are false? The trend will eventually answer this question for me, it's up to me to simply ride that trend either way, and not argue with it.
I have a plan in place. I am going to continue to ignore all these short term distractions and look around for some more reading material while I am stuck at home. That said, I am happy with my one an only speculative trade during the current unpleasantness. I bought a gold Krugerand at 1477 just before everybody went nuts and all the physical inventory got wiped out. :-)