ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
But I thought they were all going to stay the course?
As a lot of people are starting to become aware and seems like between:
--Potential anti-malarial drug help
--Models of spread possibly inconsistent/too negative with what is/may be happening
--Antibody test coming soon
--??
What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:
--A huge stimulus
--A potential sooner end to everyone getting back to somewhat normal
--A potential resurgence in a few months.
I rebalanced 33% what seems like a year ago but was only a little over a week.
--Overweight stocks and gold, underweight bonds?
--Any good ideas on indications on what might be a right time to tweak?
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:14 pm
As a lot of people are starting to become aware and seems like between:
--Potential anti-malarial drug help
--Models of spread possibly inconsistent/too negative with what is/may be happening
--Antibody test coming soon
--??
What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:
--A huge stimulus
--A potential sooner end to everyone getting back to somewhat normal
--A potential resurgence in a few months.
I rebalanced 33% what seems like a year ago but was only a little over a week.
--Overweight stocks and gold, underweight bonds?
--Any good ideas on indications on what might be a right time to tweak?
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.
I would guess that bonds will get killed with inflation, whereas stocks will probably do okay.
Gold should be the big winner.
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:14 pm
What's the way, if any to play this? There are many things to consider:
...
--Or not. Just looking to time a once in a lifetime "optimal" rebalance.
It's easy to tell other people what to do.
Passively rebalance, by the numbers.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
But I thought they were all going to stay the course?
This has got to be my favourite 2 posts of all time on this forum.
And what are we doing on this forum compared to the Bogleheads? Having fun talking about cute cats, dogs, and spitballing about conspiracy theories. Our quality of life is just so much better. What kind of dollar value do you put on that?
The Bogleheads forum is like your arrogant teenage son who thinks he knows everything about how the world works, only to have to come running to his parents when he's caught smoking a joint at school.
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.
ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
But I thought they were all going to stay the course?
This has got to be my favourite 2 posts of all time on this forum.
And what are we doing on this forum compared to the Bogleheads? Having fun talking about cute cats, dogs, and spitballing about conspiracy theories. Our quality of life is just so much better. What kind of dollar value do you put on that?
The Bogleheads forum is like your arrogant teenage son who thinks he knows everything about how the world works, only to have to come running to his parents when he's caught smoking a joint at school.
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
The main difference is that the most arrogant Bogleheads are usually of retirement age.
ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
We have a little bit of that, too.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:04 am
Bogglyhead panic build... forum titles. Everyone has a plan until they get stabbed.
Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?
Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Why isn't this time different?
Do ppl who rebalance annually do anything different in this type of market?
Why not stand on the sidelines for a little while?
Bought Vanguard Total Stock market 2 weeks ago, now ready to sell, how do I do this?
Get out now or ride it out?
How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
The Black Swan is Here
VTI dividend drop
Dumping small value?
Any Retirees With AA = 100% Equities?
Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)
When to jump back in?
We have a little bit of that, too.
I have not subscribed to BH.
So will someone let me know when they see this.
"I have Sold ALL my Stocks and Bonds and went totally to Cash."
Now I see they are going to devalue the Currency
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.
Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.
However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.
I really respect David Grabiner over there. He's 100% stocks and some of those stocks are extra risky. He seems...ok. But he's definitely in the minority and he never recommends his portfolio to anyone else.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.
Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.
However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.
I saw some 100% stocks investors on Bogleheads say they were salivating at all of the bargains.
Since by definition they can't have any cash, I suggested they use leverage.
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.
Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.
However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.
My GF has her entire 401k (read: life savings) in a S&P 500 fund. I've been telling her for 2 years she ought to diversify into some LTT, but she ignored my advice. Her retirement date is gonna get pushed out by years, unless she can find some rich guy to marry. Any of you guys interested? She's really cute.
If you don't rebalance out of gold in the next year or two, maybe she could marry you.
Smith1776 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:11 pm
lmao my favourite one is "Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)." How TF does that constitute rebalancing? That's the opposite of rebalancing. It's capitulation.
Apparently as long as you have an “asset allocation,” you get to keep your Boglehead card — even if you time the market by dynamically shifting your asset allocation around.
Lots of people on this forum do the same thing. I'm one of them in the sense that I shifted from the PP to a GB thinking that "prosperity" is likely to dominate, so overweighting stocks would be better in the long run.
However, we are on average much happier and less tempted to market-time than your average 100% stocks investor...geez, those guys must be REALLY crying into their soup. Can't say they weren't warned though.
My GF has her entire 401k (read: life savings) in a S&P 500 fund. I've been telling her for 2 years she ought to diversify into some LTT, but she ignored my advice. Her retirement date is gonna get pushed out by years, unless she can find some rich guy to marry. Any of you guys interested? She's really cute.
If you don't rebalance out of gold in the next year or two, maybe she could marry you.
Nope, my point was that if someone was going to marry her, it wasn't going to be me. To be fair, she knew this going in.
ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:53 pm
This stock market is just so argggh and I hardly own any. It's just so much foreboding about jobs and all.
Yeah stocks are drunk. We are still in the bad economic news is good news regime. 6M+ unemployment claims in the last week, with the 3M+ last week we now have more unemployment claims in the last 2 weeks than we had the entire financial crisis... and stocks are rallying today. Of course they are still in their down trend, I'm still bearish in the short term. But yeah, basically, when volatility is high like this the big league pitching thrown by markets is very hard to hit on a day by day basis.
I think we at the very least need to retest that 2350 area. I only see that holding if data somehow takes an unexpected turn for the better. I'm currently thinking we are most probable to bottom in the 1900-2100 range. If we lose that area, worst case scenario is the 2000 and 2007 highs of around 1550. If we reach that 1550 level I'm buying as many LEAP's as I can afford, haha. That's my back the freaking truck up number. That would be a once in a lifetime kind of opportunity. Because it would be so good, I think it's too good to be true, so I see the 1900-2100 as the most probable bottom given the info I have at the moment. But yeah, the day to day moves make no sense sometimes.
