Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:38 am

Too soon to tell, but the market seems lukewarm to it, but gold likes it. ;)
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:50 am

Yes, not surprisingly. I think the market looks happy. But there is some hesitation with the Fed meeting in two weeks. That meeting matters a lot, in how they communicate what they are going to do with their liquidity injections. They were signaling as soon as last week that they wanted to roll off starting next month. My guess is they announce another 3 months of repo operations, as well as term adjustments on the prior to the long end of the curve (meaning, real QE), and project forward that they will provide any liquidity or rate cuts needed to "protect the expansion". I think that would be enough to bring volatility back in line. I also think the big plunge in the dollar over the last couple weeks (99.50 down to current 97.51) also helps a ton. I was really getting worried a couple weeks ago about that dollar breakout, and whether or not the Fed would try to fight the market a'la Q4 2018, but the virus kind of put a damper on any lingering stubborness they had. We are now back to full blown dovishness.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:56 am

Yeah and after I said that we definitely have gotten some buy the rumor, sell the news action going on today. Not really worried about that on a one day thing. It is amazing though how the pattern of volatility has gone since 2017. Volatility completely dries up and intraday swings are super tight while the market trends up. Then volatility returns with a vengeance, and intraday trading ranges become dizzying. Volatility is kind of the tail that wags the dog these days. VIX is still at 34.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:14 am

And Trump adding more fuel to the fire hammering the Fed both more rate cuts and QE. I'm telling you, stimulus the likes of which we have never seen is going to be unleashed, and it's all going to wind up in stocks:

"The Federal Reserve is cutting but must further ease and, most importantly, come into line with other countries/competitors. We are not playing on a level field. Not fair to USA. It is finally time for the Federal Reserve to LEAD. More easing and cutting!"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... gr%5Etweet
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am

pmward wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:14 am
And Trump adding more fuel to the fire hammering the Fed both more rate cuts and QE. I'm telling you, stimulus the likes of which we have never seen is going to be unleashed, and it's all going to wind up in stocks:

"The Federal Reserve is cutting but must further ease and, most importantly, come into line with other countries/competitors. We are not playing on a level field. Not fair to USA. It is finally time for the Federal Reserve to LEAD. More easing and cutting!"

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... gr%5Etweet
And, yeah, all you retired 60 and 70 and 80 year olds living on a bit of interest from your savings and bonds, because you're trying to be safe, sorry. The market is way more important than you.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:37 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am
And, yeah, all you retired 60 and 70 and 80 year olds living on a bit of interest from your savings and bonds, because you're trying to be safe, sorry. The market is way more important than you.
Are you saying the fed should prop up interest rates for retirees who shun stocks?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:59 pm

Apparently the stock selloff is due to some comments by Powell that ruffled some feathers. He said that they have not yet discussed anything other than the rate cuts, and that at the moment this seems adequate. Of course, last week they were sounding hawkish so they will capitulate more. Either way, Powell sometimes is better off not speaking, as people try to read too much into it.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:01 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:59 pm
Either way, Powell sometimes is better off not speaking, as people try to read too much into it.
It's funny- he's so calm and reasoned in my opinion, but yes, people almost want to read weird things into his words. Any words.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:26 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:37 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am
And, yeah, all you retired 60 and 70 and 80 year olds living on a bit of interest from your savings and bonds, because you're trying to be safe, sorry. The market is way more important than you.
Are you saying the fed should prop up interest rates for retirees who shun stocks?
I am saying if the economy has been as good as everyone has been saying for the last few years, we never even got close to normalizing interest rates (I assume "normal" is closer to 5%) and we started cutting last year when the economy was apparently humming along on the surface. Why is that?

Image
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:35 pm

sophie wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:21 am
People are nuts.

My coop sent out a bulletin about "coronavirus preparedness" where they talk about what they'll do in the event that many of the staff can't come to work. Something about halting all renovations and asking residents to help with things like taking out the trash. Good that they have a policy worked out, but announcing it like this just fans the flames of panic.

So I wondered what the odds were. Wuhan has 11,000,000 population, and China (the entire country) has had 80K coronavirus cases. Making the ridiculous assumptions that 1) they are all sick at once, 2) twice as many people would actually test positive and be quarantined or hospitalized, and 3) they were all in Wuhan, that's an infection rate of 1.4%. The chance of *any* of the 16 staff members in my coop getting coronavirus would then be 28% (likely an overestimate). It would probably take at least 3 or 4 of them getting sick to seriously disable normal function.

it really helps to be able to do math, ha.
If there's a lily pond in a lake that doubles in size every day, and it covers the lake at the end of day 30, when did it cover half the lake?
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:37 pm

The old give me one penny, then two pennies then four pennies thing for a month.... :D
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:37 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:01 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:59 pm
Either way, Powell sometimes is better off not speaking, as people try to read too much into it.
It's funny- he's so calm and reasoned in my opinion, but yes, people almost want to read weird things into his words. Any words.
Yeah, you really cannot make this kind of stuff up. The temper tantrum both Trump and the market throw every time they are demanding more stimulus is ridiculous. It's a circus show!
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:26 pm

I am saying if the economy has been as good as everyone has been saying for the last few years, we never even got close to normalizing interest rates (I assume "normal" is closer to 5%) and we started cutting last year when the economy was apparently humming along on the surface. Why is that?
The reason is apparent. The economy is not as good as everyone thinks. Under the surface things are bad. But the rate cuts, QE, deficit spending, tax cuts, etc distort the big picture. This is why I say the stock market is divorced from the economy these days. The economic data is clear as day that growth has been horrendous the last 10 years. They've just kept easing to higher multiple expansions, and the easing has allowed companies to buy back shares to distort the P/E picture. It's all one giant distortion. But, everyone who knows anything recognizes this. However, what are you gonna do? As long as the music is playing, you have to continue to dance. They can keep this going for a long time to come. Common sense left the building ages ago.

Side note: it would be interesting to hear what Harry's thoughts would have been on the current environment.
Last edited by pmward on Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:38 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:37 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am
And, yeah, all you retired 60 and 70 and 80 year olds living on a bit of interest from your savings and bonds, because you're trying to be safe, sorry. The market is way more important than you.
Are you saying the fed should prop up interest rates for retirees who shun stocks?
"Not keeping rates on the floor by heroic means" != "propping up interest rates".

But of course we know they can never let rates reach their natural levels because that would add at least $1 trillion to the deficit almost instantly.

It's pretty hard to see how this ends without some sort of financial disaster.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:39 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:37 pm
The old give me one penny, then two pennies then four pennies thing for a month.... :D
Or the story about the invention of chess...
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:26 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:37 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am
And, yeah, all you retired 60 and 70 and 80 year olds living on a bit of interest from your savings and bonds, because you're trying to be safe, sorry. The market is way more important than you.
Are you saying the fed should prop up interest rates for retirees who shun stocks?
I am saying if the economy has been as good as everyone has been saying for the last few years, we never even got close to normalizing interest rates (I assume "normal" is closer to 5%) and we started cutting last year when the economy was apparently humming along on the surface. Why is that?

(chart)
I do wonder what a normal interest rate is, now that you said that. We have kind of hit the normal or at least desired inflation rate of 2%, and passed it a little, but I guess I don't know what a normal interest rate is.
Libertarian666 wrote:"Not keeping rates on the floor by heroic means" != "propping up interest rates".
Of course, I agree. I was reacting to the line, "the market is more important than (retiree savers who played it safe)."
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:51 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:46 pm

I do wonder what a normal interest rate is, now that you said that. We have kind of hit the normal or at least desired inflation rate of 2%, and passed it a little, but I guess I don't know what a normal interest rate is.
The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, therefore I personally would say that by definition "normal" should be around that 2% marker. If they are targeting 2% and yields are at 1% or 3%, there is a problem. I don't think the Fed accepts this though, as they clearly wanted to get rates back to 5%, while having a 2% inflation target. You cannot get 5% rates without having fear of inflation, and the only way to generate fear of inflation is to overshoot that 2% by a good amount.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:41 pm

I don't know if I should make this a general poll but for now, pmward, what would you do differently, if anything, if you were Powell?

PREV. PAGE
pmward wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:51 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:46 pm

I do wonder what a normal interest rate is, now that you said that. We have kind of hit the normal or at least desired inflation rate of 2%, and passed it a little, but I guess I don't know what a normal interest rate is.
The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, therefore I personally would say that by definition "normal" should be around that 2% marker. If they are targeting 2% and yields are at 1% or 3%, there is a problem. I don't think the Fed accepts this though, as they clearly wanted to get rates back to 5%, while having a 2% inflation target. You cannot get 5% rates without having fear of inflation, and the only way to generate fear of inflation is to overshoot that 2% by a good amount.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:41 pm
I don't know if I should make this a general poll but for now, pmward, what would you do differently, if anything, if you were Powell?
Unfortunately, Powell was dealt a crap hand. He didn't make the mess, he inherited it. I really think he has done a pretty good job on the whole, considering the unprecedented interference of the president and a market that likes to go on temper tantrums.

BUT, it is clear that something is broken under the hood. Why do bonds and U.S. dollars keep getting squeezed? I'm starting to think that there is something to Luke Gromen's dollar short squeeze theory. What can be done to fix that? Well the ultimate fix is getting trade off of the U.S. dollar... but let's be real here, no other currency is currently capable of handling that strain. Powell also does not have any real say in creating an unbiased trade currency. I also do not think Trump would ever want to go that route.

So what can he do? He can do nothing more than stop the bleeding. The only thing he can do is provide the dollars. He would essentially be bailing out the Eurodollar shadow banking market. This means basically cutting rates to 0 and providing massive amounts of QE to bring the dollar down. This is also what Trump wants, though ironically he also throws a temper tantrum and labels any other country that tries to do this as a currency manipulator. Unfortunately, this isn't a clean fix either, for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. What does QE do? It continues to blow up the wealth divide... which eventually pushes the political climate over the edge and we eventually wind up with a socialist president and MMT (although, with our current deficit, liquidity injections, and tax cuts, let's be real Trump is the first MMT president ever). We are already too far into this thing for a clean break. There is no fix. It will run its course. It won't end well. Bonds and stocks will eventually both blow up simultaneously. But the end is not today. The craziness can keep going on much longer than anyone thinks possible.

Also, speaking of wealth divide, Yellen came out back in Sept saying that the Fed should start buying stocks and corporate bonds in the next downturn. If QE into the bond market creates a wealth divide, just imagine what this would do?
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:12 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:42 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:39 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:37 pm
The old give me one penny, then two pennies then four pennies thing for a month.... :D
Or the story about the invention of chess...
Never heard that story; do tell. Or provide link.
https://www.chess.com/blog/MatBobula/an ... n-of-chess
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:16 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:26 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:37 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am
And, yeah, all you retired 60 and 70 and 80 year olds living on a bit of interest from your savings and bonds, because you're trying to be safe, sorry. The market is way more important than you.
Are you saying the fed should prop up interest rates for retirees who shun stocks?
I am saying if the economy has been as good as everyone has been saying for the last few years, we never even got close to normalizing interest rates (I assume "normal" is closer to 5%) and we started cutting last year when the economy was apparently humming along on the surface. Why is that?

(chart)
I do wonder what a normal interest rate is, now that you said that. We have kind of hit the normal or at least desired inflation rate of 2%, and passed it a little, but I guess I don't know what a normal interest rate is.
Libertarian666 wrote:"Not keeping rates on the floor by heroic means" != "propping up interest rates".
Of course, I agree. I was reacting to the line, "the market is more important than (retiree savers who played it safe)."
A normal interest rate is whatever the rate would be in the absence of Fed intervention.
I'm guessing it would be much higher than it is now, maybe 5% or 6% higher, maybe more.
But that would cause an enormous increase in the US government deficit, which would make interest rates go even higher, resulting in a death spiral.
That's why they can't allow it to happen.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:37 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:16 pm
I'm guessing it would be much higher than it is now, maybe 5% or 6% higher, maybe more.
See I disagree with this quite strongly. The problem is that the demand for U.S. dollars and treasuries outstrips the supply. This mainly caused by the fact that all global trade is denominated in U.S. dollars and requires some form of U.S. dollar denominated asset as collateral, of which there is not enough currently in existence. I think that even if they stopped setting a Fed funds rate the market would drag the rates lower, as is evidenced by the 10 year bond being inverted from the Fed Funds rate. Right now the Fed is holding rates up, not holding rates down. This is clearly evidenced in the bond market. The Fed has been bulled around and forced to follow the market, not the other way around. The Fed wants rates up, not rates down.

For better or worse, U.S. treasuries are primarily a collateral instrument these days, not an investment instrument. The post crisis regulations also have a hand in that as well, forcing big banks and investment banks to hold more reserves and collateral respectively. Believe it or not, the U.S. does not have enough debt to satisfy the appetite and needs of our economy, the current financial regulations, and the entire world's trade. This forces rates down in treasuries, corporate bonds, and junk bonds. I also forces investors to chase risk, which is why risk assets like stocks keep going up even though economic growth has been weak for over 12 years now.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:08 pm

To add to that a bit. In the past banks would readily use their balance sheets to create Eurodollars (nothing to do with the Euro, this is simply a catch all term for U.S. dollar derivative of a banks balance sheet located somewhere other than the U.S.) which were used in trade. This is a completely unregulated shadow banking industry that the Fed does not fully understand. Well, it's so complicated that to be honest nobody really fully understands it. This Eurodollar market is the most important market in the world though, as almost all trade rolls through this. The trade collateral that other countries use are usually not literally U.S. treasuries or dollars, they are Eurodollars.

Before 2008 these banks using their balance sheets to create Eurodollars was a low risk / high reward kind of proposition. It was like printing money for free. Post crisis this has changed. You can even see evidence of banks reluctance to lend to each other in our own repo markets... it's why the repo rate hit 10% back in October and the Fed had to step in and start supplying the liquidity. Well the same thing is happening in the Eurodollar market, only the Fed does not actively supply liquidity to those markets. If these countries cannot get their hands on Eurodollars, they have to turn to actual dollars and treasuries, and it creates a massive squeeze. This is what is going on under the covers. This squeeze is bad for the global economy, not just us. Matter of fact, we are probably the least effected country so far. There is simply no way interest rates can go up meaningfully when demand is this far ahead of supply.

So what happens when the virus hits? People chase U.S. dollar denominated assets in a safety bid, which further exacerbates the issue, leads to a liquidity squeeze, a bond melt-up, and a stock market crash. As soon as adequate liquidity is provided things calm back down. We've seen this same story play out many times in the last decade. It's why I stated a few days ago that liquidity is the only thing that matters these days. When the liquidity is being supplied the party continues. When the liquidity gets squeezed the party comes to a sudden stop until the Fed finally comes to the rescue with more booze. There is unrelenting demand there, and when the supply gets tight the drunks in the market get angry and start to riot until they get what they want... which is simply more booze to keep the party going longer.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:56 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:35 pm
sophie wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:21 am
People are nuts.

My coop sent out a bulletin about "coronavirus preparedness" where they talk about what they'll do in the event that many of the staff can't come to work. Something about halting all renovations and asking residents to help with things like taking out the trash. Good that they have a policy worked out, but announcing it like this just fans the flames of panic.

So I wondered what the odds were. Wuhan has 11,000,000 population, and China (the entire country) has had 80K coronavirus cases. Making the ridiculous assumptions that 1) they are all sick at once, 2) twice as many people would actually test positive and be quarantined or hospitalized, and 3) they were all in Wuhan, that's an infection rate of 1.4%. The chance of *any* of the 16 staff members in my coop getting coronavirus would then be 28% (likely an overestimate). It would probably take at least 3 or 4 of them getting sick to seriously disable normal function.

it really helps to be able to do math, ha.
If there's a lily pond in a lake that doubles in size every day, and it covers the lake at the end of day 30, when did it cover half the lake?
Day 29

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:52 pm

vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:56 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:35 pm
sophie wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:21 am
People are nuts.

My coop sent out a bulletin about "coronavirus preparedness" where they talk about what they'll do in the event that many of the staff can't come to work. Something about halting all renovations and asking residents to help with things like taking out the trash. Good that they have a policy worked out, but announcing it like this just fans the flames of panic.

So I wondered what the odds were. Wuhan has 11,000,000 population, and China (the entire country) has had 80K coronavirus cases. Making the ridiculous assumptions that 1) they are all sick at once, 2) twice as many people would actually test positive and be quarantined or hospitalized, and 3) they were all in Wuhan, that's an infection rate of 1.4%. The chance of *any* of the 16 staff members in my coop getting coronavirus would then be 28% (likely an overestimate). It would probably take at least 3 or 4 of them getting sick to seriously disable normal function.

it really helps to be able to do math, ha.
If there's a lily pond in a lake that doubles in size every day, and it covers the lake at the end of day 30, when did it cover half the lake?
Day 29

Vinny
Right. That's why I don't draw any comfort from the relatively low rate of infection in the general population. This virus is extremely contagious even while it is asymptomatic. That's a perfect recipe for a pandemic of epic proportions.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9423
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:05 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:52 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:56 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:35 pm
sophie wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:21 am
People are nuts.

My coop sent out a bulletin about "coronavirus preparedness" where they talk about what they'll do in the event that many of the staff can't come to work. Something about halting all renovations and asking residents to help with things like taking out the trash. Good that they have a policy worked out, but announcing it like this just fans the flames of panic.

So I wondered what the odds were. Wuhan has 11,000,000 population, and China (the entire country) has had 80K coronavirus cases. Making the ridiculous assumptions that 1) they are all sick at once, 2) twice as many people would actually test positive and be quarantined or hospitalized, and 3) they were all in Wuhan, that's an infection rate of 1.4%. The chance of *any* of the 16 staff members in my coop getting coronavirus would then be 28% (likely an overestimate). It would probably take at least 3 or 4 of them getting sick to seriously disable normal function.

it really helps to be able to do math, ha.
If there's a lily pond in a lake that doubles in size every day, and it covers the lake at the end of day 30, when did it cover half the lake?
Day 29

Vinny
Right. That's why I don't draw any comfort from the relatively low rate of infection in the general population. This virus is extremely contagious even while it is asymptomatic. That's a perfect recipe for a pandemic of epic proportions.
"Epic" proportions would be the Spanish Flu of 1918...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

It was made much worse then by a lack of knowledge of how it was actually being spread. This time around it is well known how it spreads.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
Post Reply