Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:11 am
Permanent Portfolio Forum
https://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/
The Fed failed to unwind QE. The GFC crisis intervention has just morphed into today's activity. It was never one-time. It has been Universal Basic Income for the 1% for 11 years.vnatale wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:57 pm I think the difference is that for all you name, except, perhaps, infrastructure, those are all structural problems that would need annual additional injections of money while this spending is viewed as one-time crisis spending. In this case it is only our economy that is at stake.
Vinny
Because I was hoping to deploy my giant cash pile into stocks at a much lower level. I'm worried I missed the boat. The evidence still favors this being a bear market rally, and at least a retest of the March lows. But that technical evidence is starting to get weaker and weaker by the day. We are literally dancing on the borderline of what I would define as a "bear market rally" and a brand spanking new bull market trend. Now it's not uncommon to dance on that line... both 2001 and 2008 did the same thing and rejected... but it's no less stressful waiting to see if I'm right, or if I'm wrong and have to buy back in, haha. So there's 2 things to worry about. 1) I missed the boat and have to buy in much higher. 2) I buy back in and get whipsawed as my theory is eventually proven right. but months down the road.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:11 amWhy do you seem worried and hate to say it? Because....(fill in)
I have had some thoughts that maybe we do continue upwards now, and the real bear market begins later this summer once we finally start seeing the economic damage. Unfortunately, earnings will be useless this time around as most companies are suspending forward guidance. It won't be until Q3 until we have any idea of what the economic damage truly is. In the meantime, speculation can run unabated. But with the Fed and government literally willing to do anything to prop the economy up, especially in an election year, the real question is can they succeed?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am I am convinced you'll have another chance.
I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.
There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.
It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.
I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
Have I been making the wrong assumption of what I am seeing in the background of your picture?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am I am convinced you'll have another chance.
I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.
There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.
It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.
I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
I go to one ND football game a year because my daughter is there and it is a good reason to see her. This past year, we brought my younger daughter and her friend, and I left at halftime to go walk around campus with them, leaving my wife alone at the game...!vnatale wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:44 amHave I been making the wrong assumption of what I am seeing in the background of your picture?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:23 am I am convinced you'll have another chance.
I know I will be proven to be wrong(!), but fundamentals will matter. I'm sure investment houses are guiding lower and companies will beat newly revised estimates, but this stuff is so far reaching it won't matter.
There isn't going to be a bursting of activity from this stay at home stuff. People aren't dying for a new car. Look at how sports just fell off the radar (not that I was ever into them). Who's going to set foot on a cruise ship anytime soon? Go to a stadium? Sit in a crowded restaurant? We have been frightened.
It's going to take time. And then there will probably be a blip up again in the fall to freak people out again.
I have become way more worried about what this is doing to people mentally, like my kids. Day after day. Eventually, at all levels, I imagine people and governments will have to say f*$! this and start moving toward theories like this (yeah, Denninger again)
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238895
Vinny
A market is a price finding mechanism, a place that people commune to trade. They are not really about that anymore given the degree of government intervention. They have become a means to enrich a certain segment of the population. If you can't tell by the tone of my posts of late I'm angry....borderline outraged about what I have witnessed in the last 10 years in this country.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:35 am markets are based on beating earnings expectations .... if the bar is set so much lower then things only need to be less bad .... lots of lay offs , lots of firings add to that profit bucket ....
market logic is not main street logic. markets at times like this are not focused on increasing revenue ... profit that comes from expense cutting is just as acceptable .
for all we know markets are focusing on a year or two out with increasing sales and lower expenses still in effect ...as well as about the almost free money .
investors get hurt trying to equate main street with wall street ..they are a very different mentality
Tell us how you really feel.doodle wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:07 amA market is a price finding mechanism, a place that people commune to trade. They are not really about that anymore given the degree of government intervention. They have become a means to enrich a certain segment of the population. If you can't tell by the tone of my posts of late I'm angry....borderline outraged about what I have witnessed in the last 10 years in this country.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:35 am markets are based on beating earnings expectations .... if the bar is set so much lower then things only need to be less bad .... lots of lay offs , lots of firings add to that profit bucket ....
market logic is not main street logic. markets at times like this are not focused on increasing revenue ... profit that comes from expense cutting is just as acceptable .
for all we know markets are focusing on a year or two out with increasing sales and lower expenses still in effect ...as well as about the almost free money .
investors get hurt trying to equate main street with wall street ..they are a very different mentality
All these supposed corporate elite hard nosed capitalist masters of the universe are all for small government and deregulation when the gettings good. The CEOs, execs, and members of the board overextend and blow their massive profits on champagne and caviar on their yacht parties while claiming that their workers don't deserve living wages yet when shit hits the fan and they can't pay back their bond holders after binging on cheap debt for nearly a decade they and their bond holders and stock holders all become bleating socialists with their hand out demanding they get bailed out. That is hypocrisy of the highest magnitude and boils my blood. That creates a world rife with moral hazard. It incentivizes recklessness and lack of foresight and responsibility. Everyone of these corporate bigwig 'socialist' hypocritical mfs should be voting for Bernie Sanders while they suck off the corrupt corporate social safety net that the government (the stupid bleating masses) provides. I'm over it and can't understand why there isn't more outrage at what is happening here.
ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!
It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.
Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.
That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.
Oil Price War Ends With Historic OPEC+ Deal to Cut Output
The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, putting an end to the devastating price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
...
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
...
The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to actively cut American oil production and personally brokered the deal over phone calls with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... production
"Tyler wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:36 pmochotona wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!
It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.
Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.
That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.
You know it's Easter when impossible deals miraculously come true.
Oil Price War Ends With Historic OPEC+ Deal to Cut Output
The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, putting an end to the devastating price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
...
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
...
The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to actively cut American oil production and personally brokered the deal over phone calls with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... production
The Trump tweet being referenced: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... cle_inlineLibertarian666 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:56 pmI wonder if @ochotona will apologize now to me for insulting me with the statement "Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world."Tyler wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:36 pmochotona wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!
It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.
Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.
That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.
You know it's Easter when impossible deals miraculously come true.
Oil Price War Ends With Historic OPEC+ Deal to Cut Output
The world’s top oil producers pulled off a historic deal to cut global petroleum output by nearly a 10th, putting an end to the devastating price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
...
OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million.
...
The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to actively cut American oil production and personally brokered the deal over phone calls with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... production
Of course I'm not holding my breath.
Some stock pickers are interested in storage, tankers.
Curious about some things regarding engineers versus accountants. It seems like engineers generally need to seek employment one way or the other through larger organizations? On the other hand, every single organization of any type needs some accounting work done. It can be done by having an in-house person or hiring it from someone on the outside.
being in the engineering field the problem i find is smaller companies who use engineers usually have only one level of growth .... in the company i was with engineers really have no where to grow . they do their design work and that is pretty much it ...vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:06 pmCurious about some things regarding engineers versus accountants. It seems like engineers generally need to seek employment one way or the other through larger organizations? On the other hand, every single organization of any type needs some accounting work done. It can be done by having an in-house person or hiring it from someone on the outside.
During my last semester in graduate school in getting my MSBA in accounting, I'd built up my own little accounting practice to 20 hours per week. And, when I graduated, it expanded and became full-time by adding other clients.
That type of path, in general, does not seem to be available to any type of engineer? Generally, either you have to work for either a large firm or only a smaller one which has some form of engineering focus?
Vinny
I did not need to get my masters degree in accounting. I made my decision to get it on a whim.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:47 am my daughter inlaw is a cpa .... she graduated college here in queens and got hired by ernst young ... she became an auditor for a very famous hedge fund manager ... he liked her so much he wanted to hire her directly .... at the time she had no car so he gave her 25k for a car and said if you work for me for at least 2 years you owe me nothing .....
she spent many years there and got a fabulous offer from a hedge fund started by some former managers where she was ...
they offered her multiple 6 figures as a compensation package to run the tax dept so she took the offer last year
it seems accounting is an area where you can do very very well yet not need a masters in anything . all she had was her 4 year degree unlike my son who is an attorney and first needed years of law school
I agree this has been my experience in the engineering field as well. I worked for smaller companies my first few years out of college. But at a certain point, the small companies could no longer afford to pay market rates for a senior engineer. After a few years, it only financially made sense to work for larger companies. The small companies simply cannot compete on compensation packages.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:51 am being in the engineering field the problem i find is smaller companies who use engineers usually have only one level of growth .... in the company i was with engineers really have no where to grow . they do their design work and that is pretty much it ...
many have left to go on to big engineering firms with many levels to grow to .
I am an EE with 30 years experience. I have been at large corps (Zenith, 3Com, Palm, US Robotics) and small.pmward wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:10 amI agree this has been my experience in the engineering field as well. I worked for smaller companies my first few years out of college. But at a certain point, the small companies could no longer afford to pay market rates for a senior engineer. After a few years, it only financially made sense to work for larger companies. The small companies simply cannot compete on compensation packages.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:51 am being in the engineering field the problem i find is smaller companies who use engineers usually have only one level of growth .... in the company i was with engineers really have no where to grow . they do their design work and that is pretty much it ...
many have left to go on to big engineering firms with many levels to grow to .
Definitely not! The concentration of engineering jobs is more about industry than company size. Yes, engineers in smaller cities tend to congregate in larger companies that scoop them up without much competition. But in product development hubs like the Bay Area, every company from monsters like Apple down to the 10 startups on every street corner are full of engineers.
Once they get enough experience, lots of engineers try the independent consulting route. Success depends largely on your specialty and ability to drum up business. Unfortunately most engineers have INTJ personalities that really hate sales. So it takes a special type of outgoing engineer to succeed.vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:06 pmDuring my last semester in graduate school in getting my MSBA in accounting, I'd built up my own little accounting practice to 20 hours per week. And, when I graduated, it expanded and became full-time by adding other clients. That type of path, in general, does not seem to be available to any type of engineer?
Not necessarily. When I graduated from engineering school, the largest single recruiter for engineers was a business consulting company. Apparently they preferred the math education and problem solving skills of the engineers to what was coming out of the business school.
A wise engineering manager back in the day once explained to me that an engineer eventually has a choice -- the design track or the management track. People who define "growth" in terms of promotions and authority go the management track. People who define "growth" as making increasingly cool stuff go the design track. And it's virtually impossible to successfully do both. It's true that large companies are the only real place for most people to climb the management ladder, but there are lots of great small companies for growing your personal design portfolio. So it depends on what you care about most.mathjak107 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:51 am being in the engineering field the problem i find is smaller companies who use engineers usually have only one level of growth .... in the company i was with engineers really have no where to grow . they do their design work and that is pretty much it ...
many have left to go on to big engineering firms with many levels to grow to .