Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:51 pm

pugchief wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:00 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm
It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.
If anyone wants to take the other side, I would be willing to bet big $ that the good times last at least until after the election in Nov.
I'll take that bet. When we've gotten to the point that the market goes up on Iran accidentally shooting down an airliner, something is F'ed up. I feel some black swan is coming before Nov.

Not saying the shooting down would be a 1000 point drop, but seriously, up? And up big? Does anything cause more than a 4 hour drop in stock prices anymore?

Gotta love Trump with his 409k and isn't your account up 70/80/90% tweet.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:57 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:51 pm
I feel some black swan is coming before Nov.
Paradoxical statement. It’s not a black swan if you feel it’s coming.
Do you feel the market is overvalued, or do you think something truly strange is going to take us by surprise?

Many stocks are overvalued, but this does not feel like irrational exuberance.
You may have some 30-year treasury interest as of Saturday. Vanguard’s transaction history is finally showing it, too.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:47 am

I am no seer, I just think that there is so much effort behind the scenes to make things look better than they are that something is going to break. What that is I don't know. What triggers it, I don't know.

It is just my BS opinion! Am I am perpetually negative on stocks since 2008 so I am still biased by that drop.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pugchief » Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:41 pm

Corto, we can meet for a beer in mid-Nov, and whoever ended up being wrong can buy both rounds. As for the rest of you, if anyone wants to fly in and join us, I'm buying.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am

Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
You may have some 30-year treasury interest as of Saturday. Vanguard’s transaction history is finally showing it, too.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:54 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
Yea.
There are several thousand nearly complete viral genomes integrated into the human genome, most now inert or missing a crucial gene. These account for 1.3% of the entire genome. That may not sound like much, but 'proper' genes account for only 3%. If you think being descended from apes is bad for your self-esteem, then get used to the idea that you are also descended from viruses.
Ridley, Genome
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Xan
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:58 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
Maybe this is the black swan part of things. The issue is that all such potential outbreaks fade into the background as you describe... until one doesn't. And we don't know ahead of time which is which.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:10 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:58 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am
Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.
It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.
Maybe this is the black swan part of things. The issue is that all such potential outbreaks fade into the background as you describe... until one doesn't. And we don't know ahead of time which is which.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:38 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:29 pm
dualstow wrote: Seems like just yesterday I was feeling bad about taking profits. I had not hit exactly 35% in stocks, and I also only did a half-assed rebalance, preferring to ease into it and finish at the point where the stock share would have hit 35%. That day never came. I really thought stocks would go wild after breaching 2000  (S&P). Needless to say, now I feel great about the premature rebalancing that I did do.
That's good to hear. I was waiting for my stock allocation to hit the 35% rebalance band, and it got pretty close--but then, just short of the mark, stocks started falling like a rock.

This is making me consider switching to 20/30 rebalance bands going forward.
From what I'm remembering you've subsequently written regarding this....you may have consider switching but you did not. Or, have you?

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:39 pm

Tyler wrote:
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:36 am
Tortoise wrote: That's good to hear. I was waiting for my stock allocation to hit the 35% rebalance band, and it got pretty close--but then, just short of the mark, stocks started falling like a rock.

This is making me consider switching to 20/30 rebalance bands going forward.
Funny -- I had the opposite reaction.  Probably because I've been preparing myself for early retirement by working out strategies to minimize taxes, I tend to view rebalancing these days not as a profit capturing activity but as a (potentially) sizable expense.  If the PP keeps growing within the 15/35 bands while needing a rebalance only very rarely, that would be a fine outcome.  Or maybe I'm just lazy and thankful the markets may save me the effort for a while longer.  ;)
And, I'm guessing that, for you, you have stayed with this assessment?

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:36 am

Tyler wrote:
Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:38 pm
MachineGhost wrote: Hindsight bias.

The Golden Butterfly portfolio is B.S..  Does anyone really think such a "free lunch" is that easy to get all packaged up for you by your friendly neighbor, Mr. Wall Street?  ::)

You're not gonna get more prosperity by data mining to the past. 
Forget Wall Street -- What about nicely packaged up by your friendly neighborhood charting guru?  ;)

The Golden Butterfly is 80% Permanent Portfolio, and the extra 20% small cap VP simply tilts it slightly to prosperity with one additional low-cost index fund.  If it's purely a result of data mining, then we all have bigger issues.  I fully believe in the PP, so I'm not so quick to dismiss similar iterations of the same idea. 

The thing I most like about both the PP and GB is that their performances are remarkably independent of start date.  Now that's not to say that the future will be exactly like the past, but that's also not the point.  When you're investing in something that has done consistently well in all sorts of economic conditions, the exact order of the future is a lot less important.  IMHO that's a perfectly reasonable application of back testing, but everyone is entitled to their own opinions and portfolio choices. 

FWIW, after lots of consideration I'm also going into the GB (with minor tweaks) with my own money.  I'll be happy to report back along with Pointedstick how it goes. 
I think this may have been the first MachineGhost / Tyler Golden Butterfly "discussion" I've come across...

VInny
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