Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kbg
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:16 pm

vnatale wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:21 am
Kbg wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Fundamental long term projected return measures are actually quite good in their accuracy...just not in the timing. Seems like it is contradictory but it is not. Bonds are utterly predictable...expect the coupon return over multiple iterations. The only thing that is going to make the PP perform well going forward is Mr. Wildcard, gold. The other three assets are not going to do all that great over the next decade.
I assume you are still saying the same?

Vinny
Yes...guess I’m down to 9 years though. ;)

The timing comment is key though...return to mean behavior in stocks is a real thing associated with market cycles normally. Bonds as I noted, cash as noted are very predictable and gold is the great unknown.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:38 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:29 pm
This is making me consider switching to 20/30 rebalance bands going forward.
From what I'm remembering you've subsequently written regarding this....you may have consider switching but you did not. Or, have you?

Vinny
No, I just stayed with the 15/35 rebalance bands. I thought about 20/30 for a while, but I guess my laziness ultimately won and I stuck with the wider bands.

I figure over my entire investing lifetime, it’ll mostly average out and won’t make a huge difference.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:27 pm

Nothing to see here. 1000 points in a couple days, nyah!
pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:29 pm

Sorry to all for getting so frustrated in this thread back in September. I was dealing with some outside issues and that steam got kind of vented in this direction. I took some time away, which I think was a good thing to do in retrospect. Hope you all are well, and now we can get back to screaming about stocks, of which there certainly is a lot to scream about this week.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:29 pm
Sorry to all for getting so frustrated in this thread back in September. I was dealing with some outside issues and that steam got kind of vented in this direction. I took some time away, which I think was a good thing to do in retrospect. Hope you all are well, and now we can get back to screaming about stocks, of which there certainly is a lot to scream about this week.
It's cool bro 8)
All of humanity’s problems with coronavirus stem from a man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:46 pm

I apologize for any past provocation, pmward.
Enjoy.
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:55 pm

It's all good, pmward. I'm still in lost-my-driving-privileges-purgatory and am trying to keep it together myself. I'm not quite as happy go lucky as I usually am at work for instance.

Just about everyone is dealing with "stuff" at one point or another, and I think compassion and benefit of the doubt is usually a good modus operandi.
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The Permanent Portfolio will be safe enough to walk away from and forget about completely only if it allows for more than just the problems and hazards that are obvious today. It will have to allow for all of the unforeseeable events of the next 5, 10, 15, or 20 years.
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vnatale
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:22 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:29 pm
Sorry to all for getting so frustrated in this thread back in September. I was dealing with some outside issues and that steam got kind of vented in this direction. I took some time away, which I think was a good thing to do in retrospect. Hope you all are well, and now we can get back to screaming about stocks, of which there certainly is a lot to scream about this week.
I am thrilled that you are back. Over the last few months I've read plenty of posts from the archives, which led me to wish I could have experienced in real time many who are here no longer. You were one of them. So, again, thrilled that you are back.

Vinny
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:05 pm

Dow, S&P each down 4.44%
Dow lost 1200, count'em 1200 points.
Record 6.6 Million Americans Sought Jobless Benefits Last Week
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:26 pm

mathjak,

I'd be interested in your thoughts on the recent decline. This feels like a longer term decline and not a blip, at least for now. Every time you think the market was going to snap back the past couple days it went the opposite. I would guess there will be relief rallies, but I also see company after company warning going forward.

So here's the obvious, again, reason for the PP for me, evidenced below for YTD returns. I would otherwise be freaking out, esp. with there being no obvious end in sight for this and with it affecting the entire world. Not to say the PP will stay positive through this, but it helps my mental state.

Image
pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:42 pm

At the very least a relief rally is very much over do. We have had 6 down days in a row. That's an incredibly rare thing. Unfortunately, tomorrow is Friday, and with the unrelenting news flow I would be surprised if the bounce came on a Friday. But it is coming. Things are feeling panicky in the market right now, and generally speaking those are good times to buy stocks. Like I mentioned in the other thread, the Fed and Trump will both do as much stimulus as they have to. So we still have that PUT under us. China is stimulating like mad, Hong Kong is stimulating, Europe will also follow suit. This is a dip to buy in my opinion. Massive amounts of stimulus are inevitable.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:39 pm

I think the damage to the global economy could be enormous. The stock market still feels expensive to me. There will come a point where some speculative bargain hunting may be interesting. But I'm not ready to try my luck at catching a falling knife quite yet.
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